The debt threshold in the context of debt sustainability: a comparison between Egypt and Japan using the LSTR approach
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2026.28167Abstract
Previous studies show mixed findings with respect to the association between public debt (proportioned to GDP) and economic growth, which should be reexamined. No research has looked at how differences in economic structures, inflation stability, central bank ability to monetize debt, and the stage of economic development can determine their ability to manage and service the public debt and to mitigate the potential deleterious impacts of debt on growth. This paper helps fill this gap in literature by using data from 1974 to 2022 to investigate, in a comparative manner, the existence of debt-GDP thresholds in Egypt (as a developing country) and Japan (as a developed country). These two countries have been chosen due to the differences between both in terms of the above-mentioned factors. To do so, the logistic smooth transition regression is conducted. We found evidence for a statistically significant positive relationship between public debt (proportioned to GDP) and economic growth before crossing the estimated threshold at 72.77% for Egypt and at 205.88% for Japan. Beyond the threshold, public debt has harmful effects on economic growth, suggesting an asymmetric association between the two main variables. Such estimated thresholds, regarding keeping public debt (proportioned to GDP) below the estimated thresholds, could help policymakers design their long-term macroeconomic strategies in the sense that debt below the threshold can be productive. These thresholds can be dealt with as a fiscal anchor.
First published online 21 September 2026
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economic growth, public debt, structural breaks, LSTR model, Egypt, JapanHow to Cite
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