Inflation and global supply chain pressure in Eurozone: a time-varying causal analysis
Abstract
The aim of this paper is to analyze the causal relationship between inflation and global supply chain pressure in the Eurozone. In contrast to the full-sample causality method, this paper utilizes the bootstrap subsample rolling window causality method to account for structural changes. Initially, the computed vector autoregressive models demonstrate that the short-term relationship between inflation and global supply chain pressure is unstable. The dynamic causal relationship is reexamined in the subsample rolling window causality test using a time-varying method (RB bootstrap-based modified-LR causality test). The results indicate that inflation is influenced by the expansion of global supply chain pressure in a variety of sub-periods, with both positive and negative effects. Conversely, inflation fluctuations increase the uncertainty of the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index. The novelty of the findings is that they illustrate bidirectional causal relationships between the two variables, which is in contrast to the existing body of empirical research that does not support the direction of causality. The implications of these findings emphasize the need to implement appropriate monetary policy measures in order to mitigate the inflationary consequences of disruptions in the global supply chain and to ensure a more stable supply chain network.
Keyword : causal analysis, inflation, global supply chain pressure
How to Cite
Stan, S.-E., Oprean-Stan, C., Bătușaru, C., Mârza, B., & Bratu, R. (2025). Inflation and global supply chain pressure in Eurozone: a time-varying causal analysis . Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 31(2), 388–411. https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2025.23200
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
References
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Ekici, O. (2022). Supply chain disruptions and the effects on price stability: An Intercountry analysis In U. Akkucuk (Ed.), Managing inflation and supply chain disruptions in the global economy (pp. 132–150). IGI Global Scientific Publishing. https://doi.org/10.4018/978-1-6684-5876-1.ch009
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Ghysels, E., Hill, J. B., & Motegi, K. (2016). Testing for Granger causality with mixed frequency data. Journal of Econometrics, 192(1), 207–230. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2015.07.007
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Gozgor, G., Khalfaoui, R., & Yarovaya, L. (2023). Global supply chain pressure and commodity markets: Evidence from multiple wavelet and quantile connectedness analyses. Finance Research Letters, 54, Article 103791. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2023.103791
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Harding, M., Lindé, J., & Trabandt, M. (2023). Understanding post-COVID inflation dynamics. Journal of Monetary Economics, 140(S), S101–S118. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2023.05.012
Hupka, Y. (2022). Leverage and the global supply chain. Finance Research Letters, 50, Article 103269. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2022.103269
Johansen, S. (1991). Estimation and hypothesis testing of cointegration vectors in Gaussian vector autoregressive models. Econometrica, 59(6), 1551–1580. https://doi.org/10.2307/2938278
Johansen, S. (1995). Likelihood-based inference in cointegrated vector autoregressive models. Oxford Academic. https://doi.org/10.1093/0198774508.001.0001
Krompas, I. (2022). Natural gas price inefficiencies as an obstacle in taming EU inflation. HAPSc Policy Briefs Series, 3(2), 146–152. https://doi.org/10.12681/hapscpbs.33794
Kyriazis, N. A., & Economou, E. M. L. (2019). Brexit and new perspectives of an unconventional way of Eurozone revival. Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, 8(3), 5–20. https://doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2019-0021
Li, S., Wu, J., & Yang, Z. (2023). Impact of COVID-19 pandemic: A global inflation crisis. BCP Business & Management, 44, 163–172. https://doi.org/10.54691/bcpbm.v44i.4808
Miccoli, M., Riggi, M., Rodano, M. L., & Sigalotti, L. (2017). A Composite index of inflation tendencies in the Euro Area (Bank of Italy Occasional Paper No. 395). SSRN. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3056283
Min, H. (2022). Examining the impact of energy price volatility on commodity prices from energy supply chain perspectives. Energies, 15(21), Article 7957. https://doi.org/10.3390/en15217957
Neri, S., & Ropele, T. (2015). The macroeconomic effects of the sovereign debt crisis in the Euro Area (Bank of Italy Working Paper No. 1007). SSRN. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2600900
Nickel, C., Koester, G., & Lis, E. (2022). Inflation developments in the Euro Area since the onset of the pandemic. Intereconomics, 57, 69–75. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10272-022-1032-y
Nyblom, J. (1989). Testing the constancy of parameters over time. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 84, 223–230. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1989.10478759
Pasimeni, P. (2022). Supply or demand, that is the question: Decomposing Euro Area inflation. Intereconomics, 57, 384–393. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10272-022-1092-z
Pesaran, M. H., & Timmermann, A. (2007). Selection of estimation window in the presence of breaks. Journal of Econometrics, 137(1), 134–161. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2006.03.010
Qin, M., Wu, T., Tao, R., Su, C.-W., & Petru, S. (2022). The inevitable role of bilateral relation: A fresh insight into the bitcoin market. Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, 35(1), 4260–4279. https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2021.2013269
Qin, M., Su, C.-W., Wang, Y., & Doran, N. M. (2024). Could “Digital gold” resist global supply chain pressure? Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 30(1), 1–21. https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2023.18557
Roderweis, P., Saadaoui, J., & Serranito, F. (2023). Is quantitative easing productive? The role of bank lending in the monetary transmission process (Economix Working Paper No. 2023-17).
Santacreu, A. M., & Labelle, J. (2022). Supply chain disruptions and inflation during the COVID-19. Economic Synopses, 2022(11). https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2022.11
Santos, C. C. R., & Donato, V. (2023). The impacts airising from the COVID-19 pandemic on supply chains. Revista de Gestão e Secretariado (Management and Administrative Professional Review), 14(4), 4794–4806. https://doi.org/10.7769/gesec.v14i4.1943
Sanusi, K., Meyer, D., & Ślusarczyk B. (2017). The relationship between changes in inflation and financial development. Polish Journal of Management Studies, 16(2), 253–265. https://doi.org/10.17512/pjms.2017.16.2.22
Shah, I. H., & Sosvilla‐Rivero, S. (2021). Incorporating asset price stability in the European Central Bank’s inflation targeting framework. International Journal of Finance & Economics, 26(2), 2022–2043. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.1891
Shapiro, A. H. (2022). Decomposing supply and demand driven inflation (Working Paper No. 2022-18). Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. https://doi.org/10.24148/wp2022-18
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