E-commerce policy, market integration and regional economic disparities: evidence from China’s national e-commerce demonstration cities
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2025.23857Abstract
Using panel data of 284 cities at prefecture level and above in China from 2003 to 2022, this paper takes the National E-commerce Demonstration Cities (NEDC) as a quasi-natural experiment, employs the staggered difference-in-difference (DID) model to examine the impact of the NEDC policy on regional economic disparities (RED), and explores the mediating roles of factor and commodity market integration. The main findings are as follows: First, the NEDC policy significantly narrows RED, which still holds after a series of robustness tests. Second, the mechanism analysis demonstrates that the NEDC policy mitigates RED by fostering both factor and commodity market integration. Third, the inhibitory effect of the NEDC policy on RED is more pronounced in non-eastern cities, southern cities, commercial-based cities, ordinary prefecture-level cities and good business environment cities. Fourth, the NEDC policy exhibits a significant synergistic inhibitory effect on RED within 150 km radius of the demonstration cities. Moreover, the inhibitory effect of the NEDC policy becomes more pronounced at lower quantiles of RED. This study elucidates the role of e-commerce policy in narrowing RED and provides valuable policy insights for achieving coordinated regional economic development in the new era.
First published online 16 July 2025
Keywords:
e-commerce policy, National E-commerce Demonstration Cities (NEDC), regional economic disparities (RED), staggered DID model, market integrationHow to Cite
Share
License
Copyright (c) 2025 The Author(s). Published by Vilnius Gediminas Technical University.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
References
Alizadeh, T., Helderop, E., Grubesic, T. H., & Ferrers, R. (2024). The multi-technology footprint of the national broadband network in Australia: exploring the urban-regional divide and socio-spatial patterns for inequality. International Regional Science Review, 47(2), 159–181. https://doi.org/10.1177/01600176231168025
Akita, T., & Miyata, S. (2010). The bi-dimensional decomposition of regional inequality based on the weighted coefficient of variation. Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, 3, 91–100. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12076-010-0040-x
Arkhangelsky, D., Athey, S., Hirshberg, D. A., Imbens, G. W., & Wager, S. (2021). Synthetic difference-in-differences. The American Economic Review, 111(12), 4088–4118. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20190159
Bănescu, C.-E., Țițan, E., & Manea, D. (2022). The impact of e-commerce on the labor market. Sustainability, 14(9), Article 5086. https://doi.org/10.3390/su14095086
Cao, X., Deng, M., & Li, H. (2021). How does e-commerce city pilot improve green total factor productivity? Evidence from 230 cities in China. Journal of Environmental Management, 289, Article 112520. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.112520
Chan, S. (2021). Inter-regional development in China: An assessment. Journal of Infrastructure, Policy and Development, 5(1), Article 1270. https://doi.org/10.24294/jipd.v5i1.1270
Chen, Z., Wan, J., Liu, F, & Hou, Z. (2024). Driving enterprise digital transformation: Unveiling the significance of e-commerce demonstration city in China. IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, 71, 5641–5655. https://doi.org/10.1109/TEM.2024.3366450
Cranea, B., Albrecht, C., Duffin, K. M., & Albrecht, C. (2018). China’s special economic zones: An analysis of policy to reduce regional disparities. Regional Studies, Regional Science, 5(1), 98–107. https://doi.org/10.1080/21681376.2018.1430612
Couture, V., Faber, B., Gu, Y., & Liu, L. (2018). E-commerce integration and economic development: Evidence from China (NBER Working Paper No. 24384). National Bureau of Economic Research.
Couture, V., Faber, B., Gu, Y., & Liu, L. (2021). Connecting the countryside via e-commerce: Evidence from China. American Economic Review: Insights, 3(1), 35–50. https://doi.org/10.1257/aeri.20190382
Deng, X., Liang, L., Wu, F., Wang, Z., & He, S. (2022). A review of the balance of regional development in China from the perspective of development geography. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 32, 3–22. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11442-021-1930-0
Fan, J., Tang, L., Zhu, W., & Zou, B. (2018). The Alibaba effect: Spatial consumption inequality and the welfare gains from e-commerce. Journal of International Economics, 114, 203–220. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2018.07.002
Fan, Z. B., Long, R., & Shen, Z. X. (2024). Regional digitalization, dynamic capabilities and green innovation: Evidence from e-commerce demonstration cities in China. Economic Modelling, 139, Article 106846. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106846
Gao, X., & Kong, S. (2024). Cross-border e-commerce reform and entrepreneurial activity in urban services – Evidence from Chinese service industry enterprise registration data. China & World Economy, 32(6), 217–258. https://doi.org/10.1111/cwe.12563
Goodman-Bacon A. (2021). Difference-in-differences with variation in treatment timing. Journal of Econometrics, 225(2), 254–277. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2021.03.014
Han, A., Liu, P. Wang, B., & Zhu, A. (2023). E-commerce development and its contribution to agricultural non-point source pollution control: Evidence from 283 cities in China. Journal of Environmental Management, 344, Article 118613. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.118613
Hao, T., Sun, R., Tombe, T., & Zhu, X. (2020). The effect of migration policy on growth, structural change, and regional inequality in China. Journal of Monetary Economics, 113, 112–134. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2020.03.003
Hong, T., Yu, N., Storm, S., & Gao, B. (2019). How much does regional integration contribute to growth? An analysis of the impact of domestic market integration on regional economic performance in China (1997–2011). Economic Research – Ekonomska Istraživanja, 32(1), 3189–3210. https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2019.1592006
Jiang, H., Hu, W., Guo, Z., Hou, Y., & Chen, T. (2024). E-commerce development and carbon emission efficiency: Evidence from 240 cities in China. Economic Analysis and Policy, 82, 586–603. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2024.04.009
Jullien, B., & Sand-Zantman, W. (2021). The economics of platforms: A theory guide for competition policy. Information Economics and Policy, 54, Article 100880. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.infoecopol.2020.100880
Kranz, S. (2022). Synthetic difference-in-differences with time-varying covariates. https://github.com/skranz/xsynthdid/blob/main/paper/synthdid_with_covariates.pdf
Krugman, P. (1991). Increasing returns and economic geography. Journal of Political Economy, 99(3), 483–499. https://doi.org/10.1086/261763
Leff, N. H. (1984). Externalities, information costs, and social benefit-cost analysis for economic development: An example from telecommunications. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 32(2), 255–276. https://doi.org/10.1086/451385
Li, L., Ma, S. J., Zheng, Y., & Xiao, X. Y. (2022a). Integrated regional development: Comparison of urban agglomeration policies in China. Land Use Policy, 114, Article 105939. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2021.105939
Li, J., Yuan, S., & Wu, J. (2022b). A study on the promotional effect and mechanism of national e-commerce demonstration city construction on green innovation capacity of cities. Urban Science, 6(3), Article 55. https://doi.org/10.3390/urbansci6030055
Liu, S., Wan, Y., & Zhang, A. (2020). Does China’s high-speed rail development lead to regional disparities? A network perspective. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 138, 299–321. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2020.06.010
Liu, D., & Qiu, Z. (2023). Can e-commerce reduce urban CO2 emissions? Evidence from national e-commerce demonstration cities policy in China. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 30, 58553–58568. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-26657-3
Liu, M., Hou, Y., & Jiang, H. (2023). The energy-saving effect of e-commerce development – A quasi-natural experiment in China. Energies, 16(12), Article 4718. https://doi.org/10.3390/en16124718
Liu, H., Wang, X., Wang, Z., & Cheng, Y. (2024). Does digitalization mitigate regional inequalities? Evidence from China. Geography and Sustainability, 5(1), 52–63. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geosus.2023.09.007
Lu, S., & Hong M. (2023). Rural e-commerce construction and regional coordinated development: Evidence from China’s e-commerce pilots in rural areas. Economic Review, (5), 71–88. https://doi.org/10.19361/j.er.2023.05.05
Lv, C., Song, J., & Lee, C.-C. (2022). Can digital finance narrow the regional disparities in the quality of economic growth? Evidence from China. Economic Analysis and Policy, 76, 502–521. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2022.08.022
Ma, S., Lin, Y., & Pan, G. (2021). Does cross-border e-commerce contribute to the growth convergence? An analysis based on Chinese provincial panel data. Journal of Global Information Management, 29(5), 86–111. https://doi.org/10.4018/JGIM.20210901.oa6
Mayer, T., Melitz, M. J., & Ottaviano, G. I. (2021). Product mix and firm productivity responses to trade competition. Review of Economics and Statistics, 103(5), 874–891. https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00952
Miao, Y., Du, R., Li, J., & Westland, J. C. (2019). A two-sided matching model in the context of B2B export cross-border e-commerce. Electron Commerce Research, 19, 841–861. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10660-019-09361-8
National Bureau of Statistics of China. (2023). China City Statistics Yearbook. China Statistics Press.
National Bureau of Statistics of China. (2023). China Urban Construction Statistics Yearbook. China Statistics Press.
Nijman, J., & Wei, Y. D. (2020). Urban inequalities in the 21st century economy. Applied Geography, 117, Article 102188. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2020.102188
Pan, X., & Zhou, C. (2023). The impact of e-commerce city pilot on the spatial agglomeration of high-end service industry in China. International Studies of Economics, 18(3), 326–350. https://doi.org/10.1002/ise3.31
Pyun, J. H., & An, J. (2016). Capital and credit market integration and real economic contagion during the global financial crisis. Journal of International Money and Finance, 67, 172–193. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2016.04.004
Qian, L., & Chen, R. (2023). “Where you live determines how you are treated”: E-commerce geography and digital inequality in China. Eurasian Geography and Economics, 66(1), 97–122. https://doi.org/10.1080/15387216.2023.2210596
Roth, J. (2022). Pretest with caution: Event-study estimates after testing for parallel trends. American Economic Review: Insights, 4(3), 305–322. https://doi.org/10.1257/aeri.20210236
Song, Z., Wang, C., & Bergmann, L. (2020). China’s prefecture digital divide: Spatial analysis and multivariate determinants of ICT diffusion. International Journal of Information Management, 52, Article 102072. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijinfomgt.2020.102072
Sun, J. (2023). How e-commerce support economic growth amid COVID-19: Evidence from Chinese economy. Environmental Science & Pollution Research, 30, 88842–88860. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-28628-0
Ul-Haq, J., Visas, H., Hye, Q. M. A., Rehan, R., & Khanum, S. (2024). Investigating the unparalleled effects of economic growth and high-quality economic development on energy insecurity in China: A provincial perspective. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 31, 22870–22884. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-024-32682-7
Wang, F., Wang, M., & Yuan, S. (2021). Spatial diffusion of e-commerce in China’s counties: Based on the perspective of regional inequality. Land, 10(11), Article 1141. https://doi.org/10.3390/land10111141
Wang, H., Fang, L., Mao, H., & Chen, S. J. (2022). Can e-commerce alleviate agricultural non-point source pollution? – A quasi-natural experiment based on a China’s e-commerce demonstration city. Science of the Total Environment, 846, Article 157423. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.157423
Wang, X., Wang, Y., & Liu, N. (2023). Does environmental regulation narrow the north-south economic gap? – Empirical evidence based on panel data of 285 prefecture-level cities. Journal of Environmental Management, 340, Article 117849. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.117849
Wei, Y. D., & Ewing, R. (2018). Urban expansion, sprawl and inequality. Landscape and Urban Planning, 177, 259–265. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2018.05.021
Wei, Y., Wu, Y., Liao, F. H., & Zhang, L. (2020). Regional inequality, spatial polarization and place mobility in provincial China: A case study of Jiangsu province. Applied Geography, 124, Article 102296. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2020.102296
Wu, S., Wang, P. & Sun, B. (2021). Can the Internet narrow regional economic disparities? Regional Studies, 56(2), 324–337. https://doi.org/10.1080/00343404.2021.1942444
Xie, D., Bai, C., & Xiao, W. (2022). Institutional environment, development model transformation and north-south economic disparity in China. Growth and Change, 53(4), 1877–1906. https://doi.org/10.1111/grow.12629
Xu, X. (2002). Have the Chinese provinces become integrated under reform. China Economic Review, 13(2–3), 116–133. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1043-951X(02)00058-5
Yang, Y., Hao, F., & Meng, X. (2024). How does the national e-commerce demonstration city pilot policy boost economic growth? Evidence from China. Empirica, 51, 929–975. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10663-024-09622-2
Yang, T., & Zhou, B. (2024). Local FinTech development, industrial structure, and north-south economic disparity in China. International Review of Financial Analysis, 93, Article 103119. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2024.103119
Yao, T., & Qiu, Z. (2024). Can e-commerce narrow regional economic disparities? Evidence from national e-commerce demonstration cities policy in China. GeoJournal, 89, Article 165. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10708-024-11155-x
Yuan, P., Shao, M., & Ma, C. (2024). Unlocking economic unity: The digital economy’s impact on market segmentation in China. Journal of Knowledge Economy, 15, 16700–16734. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13132-024-01740-3
Zhang, X. (2019). Investigation of e-commerce in China in a geographical perspective. Growth and Change, 50(3), 1062–1084. https://doi.org/10.1111/grow.12307
Zhang, Y. (2021). The regional disparity of influencing factors of technological innovation in China: Evidence from high-tech industry. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 27(4), 811–832. https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2021.14828
Zhang, Z., Zhan, C., Li, Z. & Liu, Y. (2022a). Spatial patterns, dependencies, and disparities of characteristic towns and Taobao towns in China. Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy, 15, 1237–1262. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12061-022-09454-2
Zhang, Z., Sun, Z., & Lu, H. (2022b). Does the e-commerce city pilot reduce environmental pollution? Evidence from 265 cities in China. Frontiers in Environmental Science, 10, Article 813347. https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2022.813347
Zhang, X., Tang, T., & Mo, E. (2024). Can urban e-commerce transformation improve economic resilience? A quasi-natural experiment from China. PLoS ONE, 19(5), Article e0304014. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0304014
Zheng, L., Shepherd, D., & Batuo, M. E. (2021). Variations in the determinants of regional development disparities in rural China. Journal of Rural Studies, 82, 29–36. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jrurstud.2020.08.011
Zhong, Y., Guo, F., Wang, X., & Guo, J. (2024). Can e-commerce development policies promote the high-quality development of agriculture? – A quasi-natural experiment based on a China’s e-commerce demonstration city. PLoS ONE, 19(5), Article e0299097. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0299097
Zhou, C., & Li, B. (2023). How does e-commerce demonstration city improve urban innovation? Evidence from China. Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, 31(4), 915–940. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecot.12361
Zhou, X., & Jiang, P. (2024). Does e-commerce infrastructure increase enterprise productivity? Evidence from China’s e-commerce demonstration city. International Journal of Finance & Economics, 30(2), 1758–1784. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.2994
View article in other formats
Published
Issue
Section
Copyright
Copyright (c) 2025 The Author(s). Published by Vilnius Gediminas Technical University.
License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.