On which socioeconomic groups do reverse mortgages have the greatest impact? Evidence from Spain
Abstract
Reverse mortgage is one of the products (perhaps the main one) that is good to obtain additional income by using the habitual residence as collateral. The main objective of this paper is to analyse the effects that reverse mortgage contracting has on household finances over the lifetime of a family according to the socioeconomic group to which it belongs in Spain. Four indicators are employed to measure the immediate and long-term effects. We use a stochastic model with a double source of randomness, survival and entry into dependency, and apply it to the three socioeconomic groups obtained with cluster methodology from the 2017 Spanish Household Financial Survey data. We conclude that the effects are very different depending on the group: regarding only the effects of hiring a reverse mortgage on the income of the family, widowed women aged between 81 and 85 years, with low income and expenses as well as little net wealth, and a habitual residence that represents half of her net wealth (Cluster 1) are the most benefited; considering that the highest impact indicators are on the probability of illiquidity and on the value of lack of liquidity, the use of reverse mortgages benefits more the families in Cluster 3 (high income and expenses and really high net wealth, head of household aged between 76 and 80 years) and less the families in Cluster 2 (medium income, net wealth and expenses, head of household aged between 65 and 75 years).
First published online 17 April 2024
Keyword : long-term care, reverse mortgage, clustering, Markov process, simulation, Spanish Survey of Household Finances
How to Cite
Boj, E., Claramunt, M. M., & Varea, X. (2024). On which socioeconomic groups do reverse mortgages have the greatest impact? Evidence from Spain. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 30(4), 1146–1164. https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2024.21138
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
References
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Barrieu, P., Bensusan, H., El Karoui, N., Hillairet, C., Loisel, S., Ravanelli, C., & Salhi, Y. (2012). Understanding, modelling and managing longevity risk: Key issues and main challenges. Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, 2012(3), 203–231. https://doi.org/10.1080/03461238.2010.511034
Basagaña, X., & Barrera-Gómez, J. (2021). miclust: Multiple imputation in cluster analysis. R package v. 1.2.7. https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=miclust
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de Prada, M. D., & Borge, L. M. (2013). Una aproximación al coste de la dependencia en España y su financiación. Fundación Caser para la Dependencia. Retrieved November 5, 2022, from https://www.fundacioncaser.org/sites/default/files/costedependenciadef_0.pdf
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Fornero, E., & Monticone, C. (2011). Financial literacy and pension plan participation in Italy. Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, 10(4), 547–564. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1474747211000473
Fornero, E., Rossi, M., & Urzí Brancati, M. C. (2016). Explaining why, right or wrong, (Italian) households do not like reverse mortgages. Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, 15(2), 180–202. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1474747215000013
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Hanewald, K., Bateman, H., Fang, H., & Wu, S. (2020). Is there a demand for reverse mortgages in China? Evidence from two online surveys. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 169, 19–37. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2019.10.023
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Jefferson, T., Austen, S., Ong, R., Haffner, M. E. A., & Wood, G. A. (2017). Housing equity withdrawal: Perceptions of obstacles among older Australian home owners and associated service providers. Journal of Social Policy, 46(3), 623–642. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0047279417000058
Leviton, R. (2002). Reverse mortgage decision-making. Journal of Aging & Social Policy, 13(4), 1–16. https://doi.org/10.1300/J031v13n04_01
Li, J. S.-H., Hardy, M. R., & Tan, K. S. (2010). On pricing and hedging the no-negative-equity guarantee in equity release mechanisms. The Journal of Risk and Insurance, 77(2), 499–522. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6975.2009.01344.x
Martinez-Lacoba, R., Pardo-Garcia, I., & Escribano-Sotos, F. (2021). The reverse mortgage: A tool for funding long-term care and increasing public housing supply in Spain. Journal of Housing and the Built Environment, 36, 367–391. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10901-020-09794-w
Megyeri, E. (2018). Old-age poverty and residential property in the EU – An analysis with the EU-SILC 2014 data. In Old-Age Provision and Homeownership – Fiscal Incentives and other Public Policy Options (pp. 27–48). Springer International Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-75211-2_2
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Ministerio de la Presidencia, Relaciones con las Cortes y Memoria Democrática. (2006). Ley 39/2006, de 14 de diciembre, de Promoción de la Autonomía Personal y Atención a las personas en situación de dependencia. BOE [En Línea], Núm. 299, 15/12/2006, Pág. 44142–44156. Retrieved October 1, 2019, from https://www.boe.es/eli/es/l/2006/12/14/39/dof/spa/pdf
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Moscarola, F. C., d’Addio, A. C., Fornero, E., & Rossi, M. (2015). Reverse mortgage: A tool to reduce old age poverty without sacrificing social inclusion. In Ageing in Europe – Supporting Policies for an Inclusive Society (pp. 235–244). De Gruyter. https://doi.org/10.1515/9783110444414-023
Nakajima, M., & Telyukova, I. (2017). Reverse mortgage loans: A quantitative analysis. The Journal of Finance, 72(2), 911–949. https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12489
Nakajima, M., & Telyukova, I. (2019). Home equity in retirement (Issues 19–50). Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. https://doi.org/10.21799/frbp.wp.2019.50
Overton, L., & Fox, L. (2015). The future of the UK equity release market: Consumer insights and stakeholder perspectives. University of Birmingham.
Piggott, J. (John R.), & Woodland, A. D. (Eds.). (2016). Handbook of the economics of population aging. Elsevier.
Pitacco, E. (1999). Multistate models for long-term care insurance and related indexing problems. Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, 15, 429–441. https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1526-4025(199910/12)15:4<429::AID-ASMB406>3.0.CO;2-J
Pitacco, E., & Olivieri, A. (1997). Introduzzione alla teoría attuariale delle assicurazioni di persone. Pitagora Editrice.
Reed, R. (2009). The increasing use of reverse mortgages by older households [conference presentation]. 15th Annual Pacific Rim Real Estate Society (PRRES) Conference, Sydney, Australia.
Reifner, U., Clerc-Renaud, S., Pérez-Carrillo, E., Tiffe, A., & Knobloch, M. (2009). Study on equity release schemes in the EU. Institut für Finanzdienstleistungen e.V., informe para la Comisión Europea.
Sharma, T., French, D., & McKillop, D. (2022). Risk and equity release mortgages in the UK. The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 64, 274–297. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11146-020-09793-2
Simón, H. (2016). La realidad de la hipoteca inversa en España y en el derecho comparado y su rol en el sostenimiento del Estado del Bienestar. Housing. Revista de La Cátedra UNESCO de Vivienda de La Universidad Rovira i Virgili, 6, 26–31.
Tsai, P. H., Wang,Y. W. & Chang, W. C. (2023). Hybrid MADM-based study of key risk factors in house-for-pension reverse mortgage lending in Taiwan’s banking industry. Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, 86, Article 101460. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.seps.2022.101460
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Atance, D., Debón, A., & de la Fuente, I. (2024). Valuation of reverse mortgages in the Spanish market for foreign residents. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 30(1), 46–73. https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2023.20159
Balasankar, V., Varma Penumatsa, S. S., & Pandu Ranga Vital, T. (2021). Empirical statistical analysis and cluster studies on socio-economic status (SES) dataset. IOP Conference Series: Materials Science and Engineering, 1085(1), Article 012030. https://doi.org/10.1088/1757-899x/1085/1/012030
Banco de España. (2019). Survey of household finances (EFF) 2017: Methods, results and changes since 2014. Economic Bulletin, 4, 1–42.
Barceló, C., Crespo, L., García-Uribe, S., Gento, C., Gómez, M., & de Quinto, A. (2020). The Spanish survey of household finances (EFF): Description and methods of the 2017 wave (Working paper No. 2033). Banco de España.
Barrieu, P., Bensusan, H., El Karoui, N., Hillairet, C., Loisel, S., Ravanelli, C., & Salhi, Y. (2012). Understanding, modelling and managing longevity risk: Key issues and main challenges. Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, 2012(3), 203–231. https://doi.org/10.1080/03461238.2010.511034
Basagaña, X., & Barrera-Gómez, J. (2021). miclust: Multiple imputation in cluster analysis. R package v. 1.2.7. https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=miclust
Basagaña, X., Barrera-Gómez, J., Benet, M., Antó, J. M., & Garcia-Aymerich, J. (2013). A framework for multiple imputation in cluster analysis. American Journal of Epidemiology, 177(7), 718–725. https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kws289
Boj, E., Claramunt, M. M., & Varea, X. (2020). Role of private long-term care insurance in financial sustainability for an aging society. Sustainability, 12(21), Article 8894. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12218894
Boj, E., Claramunt, M. M., & Varea, X. (2022). Reverse mortgage and financial sustainability. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 28(4), 872–892. https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2022.16617
Case, B., & Schnare, A. B. (1994). Preliminary evaluation of the HECM reverse mortgage program. Real Estate Economics, 22(2), 301–346. https://doi.org/10.1111/1540-6229.00636
Chatterjee, S. (2016). Reverse mortgage participation in the United States: Evidence from a national study. International Journal of Financial Studies, 4(1), Article 5. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijfs4010005
de la Fuente, I., Navarro, E., & Serna, G. (2018). Estimating the no-negative-equity guarantee in reverse mortgages: International sensitivity analysis. Fixed income modeling. In Contributions to management science (pp. 223–239). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-95285-7_13
de la Fuente, I. de la, Navarro, E., & Serna, G. (2020). Reverse mortgage risks. Time evolution of VaR in lump-sum solutions. Mathematics, 8(11), Article 2043. https://doi.org/10.3390/math8112043
de la Fuente, I. de la, Navarro, E., & Serna, G. (2021). Estimating regulatory capital requirements for reverse mortgages. An international comparison. International Review of Economics & Finance, 74, 239–252. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2021.03.001
de Prada, M. D., & Borge, L. M. (2013). Una aproximación al coste de la dependencia en España y su financiación. Fundación Caser para la Dependencia. Retrieved November 5, 2022, from https://www.fundacioncaser.org/sites/default/files/costedependenciadef_0.pdf
Dowd, K., Buckner, D., Blake, D., & Fry, J. (2019). The valuation of no-negative equity guarantees and equity release mortgages. Economics Letters, 184, Article 108669. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2019.108669
Duca, J. V., & Kumar, A. (2014). Financial literacy and mortgage equity withdrawals. Journal of Urban Economics, 80, 62–75. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2013.08.003
Equity Release Council. (2018). Equity release market report. Autum 2018. The Equity Release Council. Retrieved November 5, 2022, from https://www.equityreleasecouncil.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/equity-release-market-report-autumn-2018-final-1.pdf
Eurostat. (n.d.). Eurostat (2014 & 2018). Retrieved October 1, 2019, from http://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/submitViewTableAction.do
Fleishman, L., Gubman, Y., & Tur-Sinai, A. (2015). Dwelling price ranking versus socioeconomic clustering: Possibility of imputation. Journal of Official Statistics, 31(2), 205–229. https://doi.org/10.1515/jos-2015-0014
Fornero, E., & Monticone, C. (2011). Financial literacy and pension plan participation in Italy. Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, 10(4), 547–564. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1474747211000473
Fornero, E., Rossi, M., & Urzí Brancati, M. C. (2016). Explaining why, right or wrong, (Italian) households do not like reverse mortgages. Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, 15(2), 180–202. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1474747215000013
Haberman, S., & Pitacco, E. (1999). Actuarial models for disability insurance. Chapman & Hall / CRC Press.
Hanewald, K., Bateman, H., Fang, H., & Wu, S. (2020). Is there a demand for reverse mortgages in China? Evidence from two online surveys. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 169, 19–37. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2019.10.023
Hennig, C., Meila, M., Murtagh, F., & Rocci, R. (2015). Handbook of cluster analysis (1st ed.). Boca Raton. https://doi.org/10.1201/b19706
Huang, Z., Chan, E. Y. Y., Wong, C. S., & Zee, B. C. Y. (2021). Clustering of socioeconomic data in Hong Kong for planning better community health protection. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 18(23), Article 12617. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph182312617
Instituto de Mayores y Servicios Sociales. (2019). Información estadística del sistema para la autonomía y atención a la dependencia. Situación a 31 de agosto de 2019. Retrieved October 1, 2019, from https://www.imserso.es/InterPresent2/groups/imserso/documents/binario/estsisaad20190831.pdf
Jefferson, T., Austen, S., Ong, R., Haffner, M. E. A., & Wood, G. A. (2017). Housing equity withdrawal: Perceptions of obstacles among older Australian home owners and associated service providers. Journal of Social Policy, 46(3), 623–642. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0047279417000058
Leviton, R. (2002). Reverse mortgage decision-making. Journal of Aging & Social Policy, 13(4), 1–16. https://doi.org/10.1300/J031v13n04_01
Li, J. S.-H., Hardy, M. R., & Tan, K. S. (2010). On pricing and hedging the no-negative-equity guarantee in equity release mechanisms. The Journal of Risk and Insurance, 77(2), 499–522. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6975.2009.01344.x
Martinez-Lacoba, R., Pardo-Garcia, I., & Escribano-Sotos, F. (2021). The reverse mortgage: A tool for funding long-term care and increasing public housing supply in Spain. Journal of Housing and the Built Environment, 36, 367–391. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10901-020-09794-w
Megyeri, E. (2018). Old-age poverty and residential property in the EU – An analysis with the EU-SILC 2014 data. In Old-Age Provision and Homeownership – Fiscal Incentives and other Public Policy Options (pp. 27–48). Springer International Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-75211-2_2
Michelangeli, V. (2008). Does it pay to get a reverse mortgage? [Doctoral Thesis]. Departament of Economics, Boston University.
Ministerio de la Presidencia, Relaciones con las Cortes y Memoria Democrática. (2006). Ley 39/2006, de 14 de diciembre, de Promoción de la Autonomía Personal y Atención a las personas en situación de dependencia. BOE [En Línea], Núm. 299, 15/12/2006, Pág. 44142–44156. Retrieved October 1, 2019, from https://www.boe.es/eli/es/l/2006/12/14/39/dof/spa/pdf
Ministerio de la Presidencia, Relaciones con las Cortes y Memoria Democrática. (2007). Ley 41/2007, de 7 de diciembre, por la que se modifica la Ley 2/1981, de 25 de marzo, de Regulación del Mercado Hipotecario y otras normas del sistema hipotecario y financiero, de regulación de las hipotecas inversas y el seguro de dependencia y por la que se establece determinada norma tributaria. BOE [En Línea], Núm. 294, 8-12-2007, Pág. 50593–50614.
Ministerio de Asuntos Económicos y Transformación Digital. (2020). Resolución de 17 de diciembre de 2020, de la Dirección General de Seguros y Fondos de Pensiones, relativa a las tablas de mortalidad y supervivencia a utilizar por las entidades aseguradoras y reaseguradoras, y por la que se aprueba la guía técnica relativa a los criterios de supervisión en relación con las tablas biométricas, y sobre determinadas recomendaciones para fomentar la elaboración de estadísticas biométricas sectoriales. BOE [En Línea], Núm. 338, de 28 de Diciembre de 2020, Páginas 121566 a 121602. Retrieved October 1, 2019, from https://www.boe.es/eli/es/res/2020/12/17/(4)
Moscarola, F. C., d’Addio, A. C., Fornero, E., & Rossi, M. (2015). Reverse mortgage: A tool to reduce old age poverty without sacrificing social inclusion. In Ageing in Europe – Supporting Policies for an Inclusive Society (pp. 235–244). De Gruyter. https://doi.org/10.1515/9783110444414-023
Nakajima, M., & Telyukova, I. (2017). Reverse mortgage loans: A quantitative analysis. The Journal of Finance, 72(2), 911–949. https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12489
Nakajima, M., & Telyukova, I. (2019). Home equity in retirement (Issues 19–50). Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. https://doi.org/10.21799/frbp.wp.2019.50
Overton, L., & Fox, L. (2015). The future of the UK equity release market: Consumer insights and stakeholder perspectives. University of Birmingham.
Piggott, J. (John R.), & Woodland, A. D. (Eds.). (2016). Handbook of the economics of population aging. Elsevier.
Pitacco, E. (1999). Multistate models for long-term care insurance and related indexing problems. Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, 15, 429–441. https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1526-4025(199910/12)15:4<429::AID-ASMB406>3.0.CO;2-J
Pitacco, E., & Olivieri, A. (1997). Introduzzione alla teoría attuariale delle assicurazioni di persone. Pitagora Editrice.
Reed, R. (2009). The increasing use of reverse mortgages by older households [conference presentation]. 15th Annual Pacific Rim Real Estate Society (PRRES) Conference, Sydney, Australia.
Reifner, U., Clerc-Renaud, S., Pérez-Carrillo, E., Tiffe, A., & Knobloch, M. (2009). Study on equity release schemes in the EU. Institut für Finanzdienstleistungen e.V., informe para la Comisión Europea.
Sharma, T., French, D., & McKillop, D. (2022). Risk and equity release mortgages in the UK. The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 64, 274–297. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11146-020-09793-2
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