Measuring the effect of entry into the eurozone on economic growth – data storytelling using clustering and ANFIS
Abstract
The aim of this paper is to examine the impact of a country’s entry into the monetary union on its economic variables growth rate of real GDP as well as on GDP per capita growth for the period from 2010 to 2020. The clustering method and the ANFIS method were used in the data analysis. A total of two cluster analyses were performed. The first cluster includes countries that joined the EU in 2004 and became EZ members by 2010. The second cluster refers to those countries that joined the EU in 2004 but are not yet members of the EZ. For the first individual cluster analysis two models were analysed and for the second individual cluster three models were analysed using the ANFIS method. As expected, the results showed that GDP growth is connected with trade, inflation and gross investments in fixed capital in the observed countries, while GDP per capita is connected with unemployment, interest rates and public debt. With regard to GDP growth, the difference between countries that are in the eurozone and those that are not is not significant, which is in line with other studies.
First published online 14 March 2024
Keyword : European Union, European integration, financial integration, Eurozone, clustering, ANFIS method
How to Cite
Bosna, J., Brlečić Valčić, S., & Peša, A. (2024). Measuring the effect of entry into the eurozone on economic growth – data storytelling using clustering and ANFIS. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 1-21. https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2024.20584
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
References
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Vanhoudt, P. (1999). Did the European unification induce economic growth? In search of scale effects and persistent changes. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 135(2), 193–220. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02707252
Župerkienė, E., Šimanskienė, L., Labanauskaitė, D., Melnikova, J., & Davidavičienė, V. (2021). The COVID-19 pandemic and resilience of SMEs in Lithuania. Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues, 8(3), 53–65. https://doi.org/10.9770/jesi.2021.8.3(4)
Baimbridge, M., Burkitt, B., & Whyman, P. (2000). The impact of the Euro. Palgrave Macmillan. https://doi.org/10.1057/9780230372443
Bilas, V. (2005). Theory of the optimal currency area; the euro and the European Monetary Union. Proceedings of the Zagreb Faculty of Economic, 3(1), 39–53.
Boitani, A., & Tamborini, R. (2020). Crisis and reform of the euro zone. Why do we disagree? Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, Rome.
Bosna, J. (2022). Panel data analysis of CEE and SEE determinants of unemployment. Scientific Papers of the University of Pardubice, Series D: Faculty of Economics and Administration, 30(1), 1–9. https://doi.org/10.46585/sp30011384
Brlečić Valčić, S., Peša, A., & Čičin-Šain, D. (2022). Analysis of the Eurozone’s resilience to crises and disturbances in the context of EU development strategies – contemporary approach using Anfis. Sustainability, 14(23), Article 15594. https://doi.org/10.3390/su142315594
Brlečić Valčić, S. (2021). Utilisation of ANFIS in analysing impact of cost structure on development of Croatian maritime companies development. Pomorstvo / Scientific Journal of Maritime Research, 35(1), 179–185. https://doi.org/10.31217/p.35.1.19
Campos, N., Coricelli, F., & Moretti, L. (2019). Institutional integration and economic growth in Europe. Journal of Monetary Economics, 103, 88–104. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2018.08.001
Conti, M. (2014). The introduction of the euro and economic growth: Some panel data evidence. Journal of Applied Economics, 17(2), 199–211. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1514-0326(14)60009-X
Crespo Cuaresma, J., Ritzberger-Grünwald, D., & Silgoner, M. (2008). Growth, convergence and EU membership. Applied Economics, 40(5), 643–656. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840600749524
Dauderstädt, M. (2021). Cohesive growth in Europe: A tale of two peripheries. Intereconomics, 56(2), 120–126. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10272-021-0964-y
European Commission. (2017). The EU and economic and monetary union. https://data.europa.eu/doi/10.2775/77008
Fernández, C., & García-Perea, P. (2015). The impact of the euro on euro area GDP per capita (Banco de Espana Working Paper No. 1530). https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2690211
Garoupa, N., & Spruk, R. (2020). Does European Union really matter for long-run growth and development? In Search of the Missing Counterfactual. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3568134
Gehringer, A. (2013). Growth, productivity and capital accumulation: The effects of financial liberalization in the case of European integration. International Review of Economics and Finance, 25, 291–309. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2012.07.015
Georgiou, A., N. (2020). The impact of the European Union and Eurozone membership on economic growth: A quantitative analysis of how the economic growth of the member countries has been affected [Master thesis]. Södertörn University, School of Social Sciences, Stockholm, Sweden.
Gräbner, C., & Hafele, J. (2020). The emergence of core-periphery structures in the European Union: A complexity perspective (ZOE Discussion Papers No. 6). Institute for future-fit economies, Bonn.
Konig, J. (2015). European integration and the effects of country size on growth. Journal of Economic Integration, 30(3), 501–531. https://doi.org/10.11130/jei.2015.30.3.501
Krstić, M., Filipe, J. A., & Chavaglia, J. (2020). Higher education as a determinant of the competitiveness and sustainable development of an economy. Sustainability, 12(16), Article 6607. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12166607
Labanauskaitė, D., Župerkienė, E., Kumpf, A., Šimanskienė, L., & Koller, S. M. (2021). Development of digital and entrepreneurial competences for the future labour market needs. Entrepereneurship and Sustainability Issues, 8(3), 565–581. https://doi.org/10.9770/jesi.2021.8.3(35)
Mion, G., & Ponattu, D. (2019). Estimating economic benefits of the Single Market for European countries and regions. Policy paper. Bertelsmann Stiftung. https://www.bertelsmann-stiftung.de/fileadmin/files/BSt/Publikationen/GrauePublikationen/EZ_Study_SingleMarket.pdf
Mongelli, F. P. (2002). New views on the optimum currency area theory: What is EMU telling Us? (ECB Working Paper No. 138). https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp138.pdf
Morić Milovanović, B., Wittine, Z., & Bubaš, Z. (2021). Examining entrepreneurial orientation – performance relationship among Croatian service SMEs. Economic Thought and Practice, 30(2), 509–526. https://doi.org/10.17818/EMIP/2021/2.10
Morić Milovanović, B., Grčić Fabić, M., & Bratić, V. (2023). Strategic approach to configurational analysis of entrepreneurial orientation, strategic networking, and SME performance within emerging markets of selected Southeast European countries. Administrative Sciences, 13(2), Article 52. https://doi.org/10.3390/admsci13020052
Mursa, G. (2014). Euro – advantages and disadvantages. CES Working Papers, 6(3), 60–67. https://econpapers.repec.org/article/jeswpaper/y_3a2014_3av_3a6_3ai_3a3_3ap_3a60-67.htm
Ozdeser, H. (2020). Analysis of the economic impacts of the euro, the efficiency of the euro in the optimum currency area, and the place of the euro in global economics. European Review, 28(2), 258–275. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1062798719000449
Petreski, M. (2007). Is the Euro zone an Optimal Currency Area? https://ssrn.com/abstract=986483
Rivera-Batiz, L., & Romer, P. (1991). Economic integration and endogenous growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106(2), 531–555. https://doi.org/10.2307/2937946
Suljić, N. S., Olgić Draženović, B., & Buterin, V. (2022). Deposit insurance, banking stability and banking indicators. Economic Research, 35(1), 5632–5649. https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2022.2033130
Škare, M., & Tomić, D. (2015) Business cycle – growth nexus: A review. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 21(3), 519–538. https://doi.org/10.3846/20294913.2015.1048837
Tomas Žiković, I. (2020). Poverty, the worst form of violence: Perceived income adequacy among Croatian. Economic Research, 33(1), 712–730. https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2020.1720769
Tomić, D., & Demanuele, D. (2017). Synchronicity and similarity of business cycles; Croatia vis a vis new EMU countries. Review of Innovation and Competitiveness, 3(4), 31–56. https://doi.org/10.32728/ric.2018.34/2
Vanhoudt, P. (1999). Did the European unification induce economic growth? In search of scale effects and persistent changes. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 135(2), 193–220. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02707252
Župerkienė, E., Šimanskienė, L., Labanauskaitė, D., Melnikova, J., & Davidavičienė, V. (2021). The COVID-19 pandemic and resilience of SMEs in Lithuania. Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues, 8(3), 53–65. https://doi.org/10.9770/jesi.2021.8.3(4)