Smart structuring and monitoring of causal dynamics between guidelines and priorities of banco de Portugal under the 2021-25 strategic plan
Abstract
In 2021, Banco de Portugal started a new cycle of strategic planning. The Banco de Portugal’s fourth strategic plan (i.e., PE21-25) was published at the institutional website, and defines 35 priorities/objectives grouped into five strategic guidelines. The interrelationships and causal dynamics of those guidelines and priorities are the core of the current research. The main purpose is to develop a set of actions aiming at producing recommendations for prioritizing the 35 strategic objectives using the Decision MAking Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) method. The objective is to develop a constructivist procedure that, with the direct collaboration of a panel of relevant decision makers, grants the analysis objectivity and empirical substance for making recommendations at the strategic level. Contributing to the literature on central banking strategic planning is an additional objective. The results of the DEMATEL application include the identification of three priorities as central factors (i.e., high prominence and high relationship), and a hierarchical list of the PE21-25 strategic priorities analyzed, including their cause-and-effect relationships.
Keyword : central banking strategic planning, DEMATEL, multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA), SMART prioritization, strategy, Banco de Portugal
How to Cite
Travisco, M. M., Ferreira, F. A. F., Milici, A., Banaitienė, N., & Banaitis, A. (2023). Smart structuring and monitoring of causal dynamics between guidelines and priorities of banco de Portugal under the 2021-25 strategic plan. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 29(4), 1239–1263. https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2023.19319
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
References
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Lin, S., Hsu, C., Zhong, T., He, X., Li, J., Tzeng, G., & Hsieh, J. (2021). Exploring location determinants of Asia’s unique beverage shops based on a hybrid MADM model. International Journal of Strategic Property Management, 25(4), 291–315. https://doi.org/10.3846/ijspm.2021.14796
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Mingers, J., & Brocklesby, J. (1997). Multimethodology: Towards a framework for mixing methodologies. Omega – The International Journal of Management Science, 25(5), 489–509. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0305-0483(97)00018-2
Mingers, J., & Rosenhead, J. (2004). Problem structuring methods in action. European Journal of Operational Research, 152(3), 530–554. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0377-2217(03)00056-0
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Poister, T. (2010). The future of strategic planning in the public sector: Linking strategic management and performance. Public Administration Review, 70(S1), S246–S254. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6210.2010.02284.x
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Rocha, A., Ferreira, F., Milici, A., Banaitienė, N., & Banaitis, A. (2022). Enhancing innovation culture: The case of multinational advertising agency VMLY&R Lisboa. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 28(5), 1476–1501. https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2022.17311
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Rosenhead, J. (1989). Rational analysis for a problematic world. John Wiley & Sons.
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Sumrit, D., & Anuntavoranich, P. (2013). Using DEMATEL method to analyze the causal relations on technological innovation capability evaluation factors in Thai technology-based firms. International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies, 4(2), 81–103.
Teece, D., Pisano, G., & Shuen, A. (1997). Dynamic capabilities and strategic management. Strategic Management Journal, 18(7), 509–533. 3.0.CO;2-Z> https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1097-0266(199708)18:7<509::AID-SMJ882>3.0.CO;2-Z
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Barger, M., Perez, T., Canelas, D., & Linnenbrink-Garcia, L. (2018). Constructivism and personal epistemology development in undergraduate chemistry students. Learning and Individual Differences, 63, 89–101. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lindif.2018.03.006
Barney, J. (1991). Firm resources and sustained competitive advantage. Journal of Management, 17(1), 99–120. https://doi.org/10.1177/014920639101700108
Bell, S., & Morse, S. (2013), Groups and facilitators within problem structuring processes. Journal of the Operational Research Society, 64(7), 959–972. https://doi.org/10.1057/jors.2012.110
Belton, V., & Stewart, T. (2002). Multiple criteria decision analysis: An integrated approach. Kluwer Academic Publishers. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4615-1495-4
Bivainis, J., & Tunčikiene, Ž. (2005). Methodological approaches to strategic planning of public sector institutions. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 11(1), 3–15. https://doi.org/10.3846/13928619.2005.9637677
Braga, I., Ferreira, F., Ferreira, J., Correia, R., Pereira, L., & Falcão, P. (2021). A DEMATEL analysis of smart city determinants. Technology in Society, 66, 1–13. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techsoc.2021.101687
Bryson, J. (1988). Strategic planning for public and nonprofit organizations. Jossey-Bass Public Publishers.
Chen, C., Tzeng, G., & Huang, J. (2018). Generalized DEMATEL technique with centrality measurements. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 24(2), 600–614. https://doi.org/10.3846/20294913.2016.1216471
Chen, V., Lin, J., & Tzeng, G. (2019). Assessment and improvement of wetlands environmental protection plans for achieving sustainable development. Environmental Research, 169(33), 280–296. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2018.10.015
Chen, Z., Lu, M., Ming, X., Zhang, X., & Zhou, T. (2020). Explore and evaluate innovative value propositions for smart product service system: A novel graphics-based rough-fuzzy DEMATEL method. Journal of Cleaner Production, 243, 1–17. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.118672
Costa, J., Ferreira, F., Spahr, R., Sunderman, M., & Pereira, L. (2021). Intervention strategies for urban blight: A participatory approach. Sustainable Cities and Society, 70, 1–14. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2021.102901
Dwijendra, N., Akhmadeev, R., Tumanov, D., Kosov, M., Shoar, S., & Banaitis, A. (2021). Modeling social impacts of high-rise residential buildings during the post-occupancy phase using DEMATEL method: A case study. Buildings, 11(11), 1–18. https://doi.org/10.3390/buildings11110504
Estiri, M., Dahooie, J., Vanaki, A., Banaitis, A., & Binkyte-Veliene, A. (2021). A multi-attribute framework for the selection of high-performance work systems: The hybrid DEMATEL-MABAC model. Economic Research-Ekonomska Istrazivanja, 34(1), 970–997. https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2020.1810093
Ferreira, F. (2011). Multiple criteria evaluation of bank branches: Decision analysis models and applications. Universidade do Algarve Press.
Fontela, E., & Gabus, A. (1976). The DEMATEL Observer: DEMATEL 1976 Report. Battelle Geneva Research Center.
Gabus, A., & Fontela, E. (1972). World problems: An invitation to further thought within the framework of DEMATEL. Battelle Geneva Research Centre.
Grant, R. (2018). Contemporary strategy analysis (10th ed.). Wiley & Sons.
Ho, W., Tsai, C., Tzeng, G., & Fang, S. (2011). Combined DEMATEL technique with a novel MCDM model for exploring portfolio selection based on CAPM. Expert Systems with Applications, 38(1), 16–25. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2010.05.058
Hunger, J., & Wheelen, T. (1995). Strategic management and business policy. Pearson Global Editions.
Huynh, T. T.-M., Pham, A.-D., & Le-Hoai, L. (2021). Building a strategic performance management model for enterprises investing to coastal urban projects toward sustainability. International Journal of Strategic Property Management, 25(2), 127–145. https://doi.org/10.3846/ijspm.2021.14298
Kim, C. (2005). Blue ocean strategy: From theory to practice. California Management Review, 47(3), 105–121. https://doi.org/10.1177/000812560504700301
Kim, C., & Mauborgne, R. (2004). Blue ocean strategy. Harvard Business Review, 82(10), 76–84.
Kim, C., & Mauborgne, R. (2009). How strategy shapes structure. Harvard Business Review, 87, 72–80.
Lin, S., Hsu, C., Zhong, T., He, X., Li, J., Tzeng, G., & Hsieh, J. (2021). Exploring location determinants of Asia’s unique beverage shops based on a hybrid MADM model. International Journal of Strategic Property Management, 25(4), 291–315. https://doi.org/10.3846/ijspm.2021.14796
Liu, C., & Liu, B. (2022). Exploring hotel appraisal determinants amid sales trend during COVID-19 pandemic: Using a DANP-mV model. International Journal of Strategic Property Management, 26(4), 258–271. https://doi.org/10.3846/ijspm.2022.17168
Lo, H., Liou, J., Huang, C., Chuang, Y., & Tzeng, G. (2020). A new soft computing approach for analyzing the influential relationships of critical infrastructures. International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection, 28, 1–16. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijcip.2019.100336
Milici, A., Ferreira, F., Pereira, L., Carayannis, E., & Ferreira, J. (2023). Dynamics of open innovation in small- and medium-sized enterprises: A metacognitive approach. IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, 70(2), 495–508. https://doi.org/10.1109/TEM.2020.3042458
Mingers, J., & Brocklesby, J. (1997). Multimethodology: Towards a framework for mixing methodologies. Omega – The International Journal of Management Science, 25(5), 489–509. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0305-0483(97)00018-2
Mingers, J., & Rosenhead, J. (2004). Problem structuring methods in action. European Journal of Operational Research, 152(3), 530–554. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0377-2217(03)00056-0
Natividade, J., Ferreira, F., Zopounidis, C., Pereira, L., Çipi, A., & Ferreira, J. (2021). Developing a composite index for intrapreneurial orientation in small and medium-sized enterprises: A comprehensive dual methodology. Journal of the Operational Research Society, 72(7), 1674–1687. https://doi.org/10.1080/01605682.2020.1730715
Pinto, B., Ferreira, F., Spahr, R., Sunderman, M., & Pereira, L. (2022). Analyzing causes of urban blight using cognitive mapping and DEMATEL. Annals of Operations Research. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10479-022-04614-6
Poister, T. (2010). The future of strategic planning in the public sector: Linking strategic management and performance. Public Administration Review, 70(S1), S246–S254. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6210.2010.02284.x
Porter, M. (1980). Competitive strategy. Free Press.
Porter, M. (1985). Competitive advantage. Free Press.
Rocha, A., Ferreira, F., Milici, A., Banaitienė, N., & Banaitis, A. (2022). Enhancing innovation culture: The case of multinational advertising agency VMLY&R Lisboa. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 28(5), 1476–1501. https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2022.17311
Rogers, D. (2016). The digital transformation playbook: Rethink your business for the digital age. Columbia University Press. https://doi.org/10.7312/roge17544
Rosário, M., Ferreira, F., Çipi, A., Pérez-Bustamante, G., & Banaitienė, N. (2021). “Should I stay or should I go?”: A multiple-criteria group decision-making approach to SME internationalization. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 27(4), 876–899. https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2021.15055
Rosenhead, J. (1989). Rational analysis for a problematic world. John Wiley & Sons.
Rosenhead, J., & Mingers, J. (2001). Rational analysis for a problematic world revisited. Wiley.
Salmeron, J. (2009). Augmented fuzzy cognitive maps for modelling LMS critical success factors. Knowledge-Based Systems, 22(4), 275–278. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.knosys.2009.01.002
Sevet, J., & De la Cuesta, A. (2021). The strategy function in Central Banks & PUBLIC Financial Institutions. Banco de México.
Si, S., You, X., Liu, H. & Zhang, P. (2018). DEMATEL technique: A systematic review of the state-of-the-art literature on methodologies and applications. Mathematical Problems in Engineering, 2018(5), 25–58. https://doi.org/10.1155/2018/3696457
Singh, P., & Sarkar, P. (2020). A framework based on fuzzy Delphi and DEMATEL for sustainable product development: A case of Indian automotive industry. Journal of Cleaner Production, 246, 1–15. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.118991
Sumrit, D., & Anuntavoranich, P. (2013). Using DEMATEL method to analyze the causal relations on technological innovation capability evaluation factors in Thai technology-based firms. International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies, 4(2), 81–103.
Teece, D., Pisano, G., & Shuen, A. (1997). Dynamic capabilities and strategic management. Strategic Management Journal, 18(7), 509–533. 3.0.CO;2-Z> https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1097-0266(199708)18:7<509::AID-SMJ882>3.0.CO;2-Z
Yazdi, M., Khan, F., Abbassi, R., & Rusli, R. (2020). Improved DEMATEL methodology for effective safety management decision-making. Safety Science, 127, 1–17. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2020.104705