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Research of the impact of business cycles on the unemployment in the countries of the European Union

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of business cycles on unemployment rates in EU countries. The relationship between changes in gross domestic product and changes in the unemployment rate is referred to in the academic literature as Okun’s law. This law is of particular importance and the relationship has been extensively investigated in the scientific literature, but there are not many studies that analyse the European Union countries. This paper examines the relationship between the unemployment rate and real GDP in the EU-27. The data used for the study cover the period 2007–2019. The results of a correlation regression analysis provide evidence of the inverse relationship between the unemployment rate and real GDP as established by theory. The results also show that the relationship between business cycles and unemployment varies from country to country: in Lithuania and the UK, there is a very strong inverse relationship between the unemployment rate and real GDP. In Lithuania, the coefficient was –0.9377, and a similar coefficient was found in the United Kingdom (–0.9337).


Article in Lithuanian.


Verslo ciklų poveikio nedarbui tyrimas Europos Sąjungos šalyse


Santrauka


Straipsnyje nagrinėjamas verslo ciklų poveikis nedarbo lygiui ES šalyse. Priklausomybė tarp bendrojo vidaus produkto ir nedarbo lygio pokyčių mokslinėje literatūroje yra įvardijama kaip Okuno dėsnis. Šis dėsnis pasižymi ypatinga svarba, todėl mokslinėje literatūroje šis ryšys yra plačiai ištirtas, tačiau tyrimų, kuriuose būtų analizuojamos Europos Sąjungos šalys, nėra daug. Šiame straipsnyje yra nagrinėjamas nedarbo lygio ir realiojo BVP ryšys 27 ES šalyse. Tyrimui naudojami 2007–2019 m. duomenys. Atlikus koreliacinę regresinę analizę, gauti rezultatai įrodė teorijoje nustatytą atvirkštinį ryšį tarp nedarbo lygio ir realiojo BVP. Taip pat gauti rezultatai rodo, jog ryšys tarp verslo ciklų ir nedarbo yra skirtingas atsižvelgiant ir į analizuojamą šalį: Lietuvoje ir Jungtinėje Karalystėje nustatytas labai stiprus atvirkštinis ryšys tarp nedarbo lygio ir realiojo BVP. Lietuvoje koeficiento reikšmė siekė –0,9377, taip pat panaši koeficiento reikšmė gauta ir Jungtinėje Karalystėje (–0,9337).


Reikšminiai žodžiai: verslo ciklas, nedarbo lygis, Europos Sąjungos šalys, koreliacinė regresinė analizė, realusis bendrasis vidaus produktas.

Keyword : business cycle, unemployment rate, European Union countries, correlation regression analysis, real gross domestic product

How to Cite
Krilytė, K., & Matuzevičiūtė-Balčiūnienė, K. (2022). Research of the impact of business cycles on the unemployment in the countries of the European Union. Mokslas – Lietuvos Ateitis / Science – Future of Lithuania, 14. https://doi.org/10.3846/mla.2022.15812
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Mar 17, 2022
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