Bayesian networks and structural equation modelling to investigate the passengers’ perceptions in high-speed rail systems

Abstract

Ensuring sustainability in the global world today depends on perception management as well as financial management. In order to manage the perceptions, which are inherently latent variables as they are measured indirectly through their indicators, they must be accurately handled and modelled comprehensively. In the present study, a hybrid technique combining Bayesian Networks (BN) and Structural Equation Modelling (SEM), which are regarded as causal models, was used to investigate the perceptions of High-Speed Rail System (HSRS) passengers. In order to provide insight into the customer retention strategy for HSRS, the analyses were performed on the survey data gathered from the frequent users of HSRS operating between 2 cities of Turkey. After the measurement model of the perception variables through SEM was established, the relationships between the variables were learned using BN knowledge extraction algorithms. As a result, relationships from image to trust and loyalty, from trust to perceived value, from perceived value to satisfaction, and from satisfaction to loyalty were determined. Final interpretations were made in terms of risk management with the help of the probabilistic predictive ability of the BN by setting evidence on the satisfaction levels of the perceptions.

Keyword : Bayesian networks, image, loyalty, perceived value, satisfaction, transportation, trust