Using growth curves model to analyse the prospects of China–Pakistan oil and LNG transportation corridor
In order to analysing the oil and Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) import and consumption changing trends, the Occurrence Period (OP), Growth Period (GP) and Maturation Period (MP) of oil and LNG import and consumption in China, and studying how the oil and LNG import and consumption changing trends influence the development of China–Pakistan oil and LNG transportation corridor (CPOLTC), in this paper we apply a Growth Curve Model (GCM) based approach to solve the problems mentioned above. First, the Chinese oil and LNG import and consumption changing trends are analysed by applying the GCM. The results show that oil and LNG consumption and import belong to the GP because of the fast industrialization and urbanization development, so the oil and LNG import and consumption demand will increase fast; Then, the External Dependence (ED) is applied to describe the oil and LNG consumption dependence degree in China, the results show that import will remain high ED value, especially for the oil import (over 70%), which means the security of the energy supply chain still remains the central idea of Chin’s energy policies. Finally, the challenges and key issues of CPOLTC is analysed. Challenges are: domestic political struggles and institutional defects in Pakistan make the CPOLTC projects lacking of implementation, security along the corridor, influence and competition from external forces, impacts of western project culture, the comprehensive projects establishment ability in Pakistan, etc. The key issues are: Value Engineering (VE) researches for projects, Chinese element such as project construction, management, standards and specifications, assessment of the projects’ life cycle and so on.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Du, J.; Zhang, Y. 2018. Does one belt one road initiative promote Chinese overseas direct investment?, China Economic Review 47: 189–205. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2017.05.010
Duan, F.; Ji, Q.; Liu, B.-Y.; Fan, Y. 2018. Energy investment risk assessment for nations along China’s belt & road initiative, Journal of Cleaner Production 170: 535–547. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2017.09.152
Egilmez, G.; Gumus, S.; Kucukvar, M.; Tatari, O. 2016. A fuzzy data envelopment analysis framework for dealing with uncertainty impacts of input–output life cycle assessment models on eco-efficiency assessment, Journal of Cleaner Production 129: 622–636. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2016.03.111
Greene, D. L.; Liu, C. 2015. U.S. oil dependence 2014: is energy independence in sight?, Energy Policy 85: 126–137. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2015.05.017
Heralova, R. S. 2016. Possibility of using value engineering in highway projects, Procedia Engineering 164: 362–367. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proeng.2016.11.631
Hilton, I. 2013. China in Myanmar: Implications for the Future. NOREF Reports. Norwegian Peacebuilding Resource Centre (NOREF). 8 p. Available from Internet: https://css.ethz.ch/en/services/digital-library/publications/publication.html/172094
Leung, G. C. K. 2011. China’s energy security: perception and reality, Energy Policy 39(3): 1330–1337. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2010.12.005
NBS. 2016. National Bureau of Statistics of China. Available from Internet: http://www.stats.gov.cn/english
NEA. 2016. National Energy Administration of China. Available from Internet: http://www.nea.gov.cn (in Chinese).
Panik, M. J. 2013. Growth Curve Modeling: Theory and Applications. John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 437 p. https://doi.org/10.1002/9781118763971
Potthoff, R. F.; Roy, S. N. 1964. A generalized multivariate analysis of variance model useful especially for growth curve problems, Biometrika 51(3–4): 313–326. https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/51.3-4.313
Siddique, Q. 2014. Deeper than the Indian Ocean? An Analysis of Pakistan–China Relations. SISA Report No 16-2014. Center for International and Strategic Analysis (SISA), Oslo, Norway. 44 p.
Song, G.; Chang, H. 2016. Equalities of various estimators in the general growth curve model and the restricted growth curve model, Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference 169: 88–100. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jspi.2015.09.003
Song, G. J.; Wang, Q. W. 2014. On the weighted least-squares, the ordinary least-squares and the best linear unbiased estimators under a restricted growth curve model, Statistical Papers 55(2): 375–392. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00362-012-0483-9
Swaine, M. D. 2015. Chinese views and commentary on the “one belt, one road” initiative, China Leadership Monitor 47: 1–24. Available from Internet: https://www.hoover.org/research/chinese-views-and-commentary-one-belt-one-road
Szczepańska, A. 2013. Simultaneous choice of time points and the block design in the growth curve model, Statistical Papers 54(2): 413–425. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00362-012-0438-1
Yu, Y.; Chang, Y.-C. 2018. The ‘one belt one road’ initiative and its impact on shipping law in China, Marine Policy 87: 291–294. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2017.11.003
Zhai, F. 2018. China’s belt and road initiative: a preliminary quantitative assessment, Journal of Asian Economics 55: 84–92. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asieco.2017.12.006