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Integral model of COVID-19 spread and mitigation in UK: identification of transmission rate

    Natali Hritonenko Affiliation
    ; Caroline Satsky Affiliation
    ; Yuri Yatsenko   Affiliation

Abstract

The integral model with finite memory is employed to analyze the timeline of COVID-19 epidemic in the United Kingdom and government actions to mitigate it. The model uses a realistic infection distribution. The time-varying transmission rate is determined from Volterra integral equation of the first kind. The authors construct and justify an efficient regularization algorithm for finding the transmission rate. The model and algorithm are approbated on the UK data with several waves of COVID-19 and demonstrate a remarkable resemblance between real and simulated dynamics. The timing of government preventive measures and their impact on the epidemic dynamics are discussed.

Keyword : integral epidemiologic models, COVID-19 mitigation, Volterra integral equations, ill-posed problems, regularizing algorithm

How to Cite
Hritonenko, N., Satsky, C., & Yatsenko, Y. (2022). Integral model of COVID-19 spread and mitigation in UK: identification of transmission rate. Mathematical Modelling and Analysis, 27(4), 573–589. https://doi.org/10.3846/mma.2022.15708
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Nov 10, 2022
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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

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