FANPCE technique for risk assessment on subway station construction

    Luyuan Wu   Affiliation
    ; Haibo Bai Affiliation
    ; Chao Yuan Affiliation
    ; Changyu Xu Affiliation


Risk assessment is critical for the construction of the subway station to improve the risk management and reduce the additional loss. According to field investigation of safe construction, the analytical network process (ANP), fuzzy set theory and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE), a fuzzy ANP comprehensive evaluation (FANPCE) model was proposed to evaluate the risk of subway station construction in this paper. Twelve key risk factors of subway station construction were identified through literature review and questionnaires. The interdependency among risk factors were illustrated through the network structure of ANP, and then a weight matrix of single risk factors was built by comments and survey results, and the interdependent weight matrix was quantified by integrating the triangular fuzzy number into the ANP. Subsequently, the total risk rank of assessed projects can be quantified though the synthesis of weight matrices with the synthetic operator of FCE. Wu Lu Kou subway station was selected as a case study. The results imply that, construction experience, underground water, and safety consciousness have a substantial influence on construction projects and that the total construction risk of Wu Lu Kou subway station is ranked at I level. Moreover, the loss analysis of the whole construction process verifies this method. This research contributes to developing a FANPCE method to identify the risk factors with high weights, assess the risk rank of projects and appropriately respond to the results. In addition, the developed fuzzy set theory-ANP-FCE integrated network provides stakeholders a consolidated model for the risk evaluation.

Keyword : construction risk, subway station, risk identification, ANP, risk assessment, FANPCE method

How to Cite
Wu, L., Bai, H., Yuan, C., & Xu, C. (2019). FANPCE technique for risk assessment on subway station construction. Journal of Civil Engineering and Management, 25(6), 599-616.
Published in Issue
Jun 26, 2019
Abstract Views
PDF Downloads
Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.


Ahmadi, M., Behzadian, K., Ardeshir, A., & Kapelan, Z. (2016). Comprehensive risk management using fuzzy FMEA and MCDA technique in highway construction projects. Journal of Civil Engineering and Management, 23(2), 300-310.

Akyar, E., Akyar, H., & Duzce, S. A. (2012). A new method for ranking Triangular fuzzy numbers. International Journal of Uncertainty Fuzziness and Knowledge-Based Systems, 20(5), 729-740.

Antuchevičienė, J., Zavadskas, E. K., & Zakarevičius, K. (2010). Multiple criteria construction management decisions considering relations between criteria. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 16(1), 109-125.

Bayazit, O. (2006). Use of analytic network process in vendor selection decisions. Benchmarking: An International Journal, 13(5), 566-579.

Bjegović, D., Krstić, V., & Mikulić, D. (2006). Design for durability including initiation and propagation period based on the fuzzy set theory. Werkstoffe Und Korrosion [Materials and Corrosion], 57(8), 642-647.

Bu-Qammaz, A. S., Dikmen, I., & Birgonul, M. T. (2009). Risk assessment of international construction projects using the analytic network process. Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering, 36(7), 1170-1181.

Chatterjee, K., & Kar, S. (2018). Supplier selection in Telecom supply chain management: a Fuzzy-Rasch based COPRASG method. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 24(2), 765-791.

Chatterjee, K., Bandyopadhyay, A., Ghosh, A., & Kar, S. (2015). Assessment of environmental factors causing wetland degradation, using Fuzzy Analytic Network Process: A case study on Keoladeo National Park, India. Ecological Modelling, 3(16), 1-13. 2015.07.029

Chatterjee, K., Zavadskas, E. K., Tamošaitienė, J., Adhikary, K., & Kar, S. (2018). A hybrid MCDM technique for risk management in construction projects. Symmetry, 10(2), 46.

Chen, T. T., & Song, Y. F. (2012). Construction planning decision of subway stations based on AHP- TOPSIS method. Journal of Engineering Management, 4, 33-36.

Chu, H. D., Xu, G. L., Yasufuku, N., Yu, Z., Liu, P. & Wang, J. F. (2017). Risk assessment of water inrush in karst tunnels based on two-class fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 10(7), 179.

Dağdeviren, M., Yüksel, I., & Kurt, M. (2008). A fuzzy analytic network process (ANP) model to identify faulty behavior risk (FBR) in work system. Safety Science, 46(5), 771-783.

Dai, L. L., & Li, J. (2016). Study on the quality of private university education based on analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. Journal of Intelligent and Fuzzy Systems, 31(4), 2241-2247.

Debnath, A., Roy, J., Kar, S., Zavadskas, E. K., & Antucheviciene, J. (2017). A hybrid MCDM approach for strategic project portfolio selection of agro by-products. Sustainability, 9(8), 1302.

Dikmen, I., & Birgonul, M. T. (2006). An analytic hierarchy process based model for risk and opportunity assessment of international construction projects. Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering, 33(1), 58-68.

Eskesen, S. D., Tengborg, P., Kampmann, J., & Veicherts, T. H. (2004). Guidelines for tunnelling risk management: International Tunnelling Association, Working Group no. 2. Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology, 19(3), 217-237.

Feng, F., Li, X. B., & Rostami, J. (2019) Modeling hard rock failure induced by structural planes around deep circular tunnels. Engineering Fracture Mechanics, 205, 152-174.

Feng, J.-W. (2006). Fuzzy Delphi Analytic Hierarchy Process and its applications. Mathematics in Practice and Theory, 36(9), 44-48.

Guo, Z., Shang, X. L., & Li, H. (2011). AHP-based safety assessment model for rail transit system. China Railway Science, 32(3), 123-125.

Hu, Q. F., & Qin, J. B. (2013). Statistical analysis on accidents of subway tunnel construction from 2003 to 2011 in China. Chinese Journal of Underground Space and Engineering, 9(3), 705-710.

Jie, Y. X., Hu, T., Li, Q. Y., & Li, G. X. (2004). Application of analytical hierarchy process in the comprehensive safety assessment system of Yangtze River levee. Journal of Tsinghua University (Science and Technology), 44(12), 634-1637.

Klein, J. H., Powell, P. L., & Chapman, C. B. (1994). Project risk analysis based on prototype activities. Journal of the Operational Research Society, 45(7), 749-757.

Kuo, Y. C., & Lu, S. T. (2013). Using fuzzy multiple criteria decision making approach to enhance risk assessment for metropolitan construction projects. International Journal of Project Management, 31(4), 602-614.

Lan, S. Q., & Zhang, Q. H. (2006). Risk assessment of deep excavation during construction based on fuzzy theory. Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering, 31(4), 1916-1920.

Li, F. W., Du, X. L, Zhang, M. J., & Gao, Y. H. (2009). Application of improved AHP in risk identification during open-cut construction of a subway station. Journal of Beijing University of Technology, 38(2), 167-172.

Li, F. W., Du, X. L., & Zhang, M. J. (2014). Statistical analysis of accidents in metro construction. Chinese Journal of Underground Space and Engineering, 10(2), 474-479.

Li, H. R., Li, Q. M., & Lu, Y. (2017). Statistical analysis on regularity of subway construction accidents from 2002 to 2016 in China. Urban Rapid Rail Transit, 30(1), 12-19.

Li, X. B., Feng, F., Li, D. Y., Du, K., Ranjith, P. G., & Rostami, J. (2018). Failure characteristics of granite influenced by sample height-to-width ratios and intermediate principal stress under true-triaxial unloading conditions. Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering, 51(5), 1321-1345.

Lin, C. K., Chen, Y. S., & Chuang, H. M. (2016). Improving project risk management by a hybrid MCDM model combining DEMATEL with DANP and VIKOR methods – An example of cloud CRM. In J. Hung, N. Yen, & K. C. Li. (Eds.), Frontier Computing (vol. 375, pp. 1033-1040). Springer, Singapore.

Ma, D., Cai, X., Li, Q., & Duan, H. (2018b). In-situ and numerical investigation of groundwater inrush hazard from grouted karst collapse pillar in longwall mining. Water, 10(9), 1187.

Ma, D., Cai, X., Zhou, Z., & Li, X. (2018a). Experimental investigation on hydraulic properties of granular sandstone and mudstone mixtures. Geofluids, 9216578.

Ma, D., Duan, H., Liu, J., Li, X., & Zhou, Z. (2019). The role of gangue on the mitigation of mining-induced hazards and environmental pollution: An experimental investigation. Science of the Total Environment, 664, 636-448.

Ma, D., Rezania, M., Yu, H. S., & Bai, H. B. (2017). Variations of hydraulic properties of granular sandstones during water inrush: Effect of small particle migration. Engineering Geology, 217, 61-70.

Mahamid, I. (2011). Risk matrix for factors affecting time delay in road construction projects: owner’s perspective. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, 18(6), 609617.

Meade, L., & Sarkis, J. (2002). A conceptual model for selecting and evaluating third-party reverse logistics providers. Supply Chain Management, 7(5), 283-295.

Nývlt, O., Prívara, S., & Ferkl, L. (2011). Probabilistic risk assessment of highway tunnels. Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology, 26(6), 71-82.

Qian, Q. H. (2012). Challenges faced by underground projects construction safety and counter- measures. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering, 31(10), 1945-1956.

Roy, J. (2010). Dealing with uncertainty: selecting a risk analysis tool on the basic project characteristics and phases (Master thesis). Department of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering, University of Colorado, USA.

Roy, J., Chatterjee, K., Bandyopadhyay, A., & Kar, S. (2018). Evaluation and selection of medical tourism sites: A rough analytic hierarchy process based multi‐attributive border approximation area comparison approach. Expert Systems, 35(1), ID 12232.

Saaty, T. L. (1999). Fundamentals of the analytic network process. In Proceedings of the Fifth International Symposium on the Analytic Hierarchy Process. Kobe, Japan.

Saaty, T. L. (2001). Decision making with dependence and feedback: The Analytic network process. Ellsworth Avenue: Pittsburgh Publications.

Saaty, T. L. (2004). Fundamentals of the analytic network process-dependence and feedback in decision-making with a single network. Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering, 13(2), 129-157.

Santos, R., & Jungles, A. (2016). Risk level assessment in construction projects using the schedule performance index. Journal of Construction Engineering, ID 5238416, 1-8.

Seyedhoseini, S. M., Noori, S., & Hatefi, M. A. (2009). An integrated methodology for assessment and selection of the project risk response actions. Risk Analysis, 29(5), 752-763.

Sharma, H. K., Roy, J., Kar, S., & Prentkovskis, O. (2018). Multi criteria evaluation framework for prioritizing Indian railway stations using modified rough AHP-Mabac method. Transport and Telecommunication, 19(2), 113-127.

Shin, D., Shin, Y., & Kim, G. (2016). Comparison of risk assessment for a nuclear power plant construction project based on analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy analytic hierarchy process. Journal of Building Construction & Planning Research, 4(3), 157-171. /jbcpr.2016.43010

Son, N. T. K. (2018). A foundation on semigroups of operators defined on the set of triangular fuzzy numbers and its application to fuzzy fractional evolution equations. Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 347, 1-28.

Tang, Y. C., & Beynon, M. J. (2005). Application and development of a fuzzy analytic hierarchy process within a capital investment study. Journal of Economics & Management, 1(2), 207-230.

Tavana, M., Zandi, F., & Katehakis, M. N. (2013). A hybrid fuzzy group ANP-TOPSIS framework for assessment of e-government readiness from a CIRM perspective. Information and Management, 50(7), 383-397.

Taylan, O., Bafail, A. O., Abdulaal, R. M., & Kabli, M. R. (2014). Construction projects selection and risk assessment by fuzzy AHP and fuzzy TOPSIS methodologies. Applied Soft Computing, 17(4), 105-116.

Ulubeyli, S., & Kazaz, A. (2016). Fuzzy multi-criteria decision making model for subcontractor selection in international construction projects. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 22(2), 210-234.

Vafadarnikjoo, A., Mobin, M., & Firouzabadi, S. (2016). An intuitionistic fuzzy-based DEMATEL to rank risks of construction projects. In Proceedings of the International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Operations Management (pp. 1366-1377). Detroit, Michigan, USA.

Valipour, A., Yahaya, N., Noor, N. Md, Antucheviciene, J., & Tamošaitiene, J. (2017). Hybrid SWARA-COPRAS method for risk assessment in deep foundation excavation project-An Iranian case study. Journal of Civil Engineering and Management, 23(4), 524-532.

Wang, L. K., & Hak-Keung, L. (2018). A new approach to stability and stabilization analysis for continuous-time TakagiSugeno fuzzy systems with time delay. IEEE Transactions on Fuzzy Systems, 26(4), 2460-2465.

Xiong, Z. M., Lu, H., Wang, M. Y., Qian, Q. H., & Rong, X. L. (2018). Research progress of safety risk management for large scale geotechnical engineering construction in China. Rock and Soil Mechanics, 39(10), 1-14.

Yang, Y. Q., Said, M. E, Lin, Z. B., & Zheng, X. Y. (2018). Evaluating highway traffic safety: An integrated approach. Journal of Advanced Transportation, ID 4598985.

Ying, G. Z., Wang, P. C., Zhu, D. Y., Lei, X. S., & Qin, Z. (2016). Risk assessment of subway construction based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model. Chinese Journal of Underground Space and Engineering, 12(4), 539-545.

Zadeh, L. A. (1965). Fuzzy sets. Information & Control, 8(3), 338-353.

Zavadskas, E. K., Turskis, Z., & Tamošaitiene, J. (2010). Risk assessment of construction projects. Journal of Civil Engineering and Management, 16(1), 33-46.

Zhang, X. P., Wang, J., & Hu, M. L. (2011). Application of FTA in safety assessment of row piles of excavation engineering. Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering, 33(6), 960-965.

Zhao, X. J., Chen, L., Pan, W., & Lu, Q. C. (2017). AHP-ANPFuzzy integral integrated network for evaluating performance of innovative business models for sustainable building. Journal of Construction, Engineering and Management, 143(8), ID 04017054.

Zimmerman, H. J. (2001). Fuzzy set theory and its applications. London: Kluwer Academic Publishers.