Unlocking the potential of the net-zero energy transition: the enabling role of green finance
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3846/jbem.2026.26694Abstract
Amid severe global climate change and environmental degradation, energy systems worldwide are undergoing a significant transformation from traditional, high-carbon, and inefficient energy structures to more efficient, secure, and sustainable ones. This study develops an indicator system for green finance and an Energy Net Zero Transition Potential (ENTP) index using data from 280 cities between 2004 and 2020 to examine how green finance development affects the net-zero transition of energy systems. The findings indicate that growth in green finance notably boosts the ENTP. Mechanism analysis shows that green finance promotes the ENTP by enhancing resource allocation efficiency and optimizing industrial structure. However, it has not effectively spurred green technological innovation to advance energy toward a net-zero goal. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the positive impact of green finance development on the energy net-zero transition is stronger in resource-based cities, large cities, and provincial border regions. Additionally, this study verifies the robustness of its results through Difference-in-Differences (DID) analysis of green finance innovation pilot zones, lagged effects, two-stage least squares estimation, and spatial econometric analysis. These conclusions can guide policy recommendations for China’s green finance reforms and address the global energy security challenge.
Keywords:
energy net zero transition potential, green finance, resource allocation efficiency, industrial structure optimization, green technology innovation, spatial spillover effectHow to Cite
Share
License
Copyright (c) 2026 The Author(s). Published by Vilnius Gediminas Technical University.

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
References
Azam, M., Khan, A. Q., Zaman, K., & Ahmad, M. (2015). Factors determining energy consumption: Evidence from Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 42, 1123–1131. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2014.10.061
Bai, Q. X. (1998). Establishing a sustainable financial development perspective for the 21st century. Urban Finance Forum, (08), 2–10. https://doi.org/10.16529/j.cnki.11-4613/f.1998.08.001
Belke, A., Dobnik, F., & Dreger, C. (2011). Energy consumption and economic growth: New insights into the cointegration relationship. Energy Economics, 33(5), 782–789. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2011.02.005
Chami, R., Cosimano, T. F., & Fullenkamp, C. (2002). Managing ethical risk: How investing in ethics adds value. Journal of Banking & Finance, 26(9), 1697–1718. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0378-4266(02)00188-7
Chen, D., Hu, H., Wang, N., & Chang, C. P. (2024a). The impact of green finance on transformation to green energy: Evidence from industrial enterprises in China. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 204, Article 123411. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123411
Chen, F., Zeng, X., & Guo, X. (2024b). Green finance, climate change, and green innovation: Evidence from China. Finance Research Letters, 63, Article 105283. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2024.105283
Chishti, M. Z., Sinha, A., Zaman, U., & Shahzad, U. (2023). RETRACTED: Exploring the dynamic connectedness among energy transition and its drivers: Understanding the moderating role of global geopolitical risk. Energy Economics, 119, Article 106570. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2023.106570 (Retraction published 2025, Energy Economics, 143, Article 108287)
Ding, W., Du, J., Kazancoglu, Y., Mangla, S. K., & Song, M. (2023). Financial development and the energy net-zero transformation potential. Energy Economics, 125, Article 106863. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2023.106863
Dong, Y., Zhang, Y., & Liu, S. (2024). The impacts and instruments of energy transition regulations on environmental pollution. Environmental Impact Assessment Review, 105, Article 107448. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eiar.2024.107448
Fatemi, A. M., & Fooladi, I. J. (2013). Sustainable finance: A new paradigm. Global Finance Journal, 24(2), 101–113. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfj.2013.07.006
Force, G. F. T. (2015). Establishing China’s green financial system. People’s Bank of China & United Nations Environment Programme.
Fouquet, R. (2016). Historical energy transitions: Speed, prices and system transformation. Energy Research & Social Science, 22, 7–12. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2016.08.014
Galema, R., Plantinga, A., & Scholtens, B. (2008). The stocks at stake: Return and risk in socially responsible investment. Journal of Banking & Finance, 32(12), 2646–2654. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2008.06.002
He, J., Li, Z., Zhang, X., Wang, H., Dong, W., Du, E., Chang, S., Ou, X., Guo, S., Tian, Z., Gu, A., Teng, F., Hu, B., Yang, X., Chen, S., Yao, M., Yuan, Z., Zhou, L., Zhao, X., Li, Y., & Zhang, D. (2022). Towards carbon neutrality: A study on China’s long-term low-carbon transition pathways and strategies. Environmental Science and Ecotechnology, 9, Article 100134. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ese.2021.100134
Hosan, S., Sen, K. K., Rahman, M. M., Chapman, A. J., Karmaker, S. C., Alam, M. J., & Saha, B. B. (2024). Energy innovation funding and social equity: Mediating role of just energy transition. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 197, Article 114405. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2024.114405
Hu, G., Wang, X., & Wang, Y. (2021). Can the green credit policy stimulate green innovation in heavily polluting enterprises? Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China. Energy Economics, 98, Article 105134. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105134
Karim, S., Appiah, M., Naeem, M. A., Lucey, B. M., & Li, M. (2022). Modelling the role of institutional quality on carbon emissions in Sub-Saharan African countries. Renewable Energy, 198, 213–221. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2022.08.074
Krause, F., Bossel, H., & Müller‐Reißmann, K. F. (1980). Energy transition, growth and prosperity without oil and uranium. German Institute of Applied Ecology.
Lee, C. C., Feng, Y., & Peng, D. (2022). A green path towards sustainable development: The impact of low-carbon city pilot on energy transition. Energy Economics, 115, Article 106343. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2022.106343
Lee, C. C., Song, H., & An, J. (2024). The impact of green finance on energy transition: Does climate risk matter?. Energy Economics, 129, Article 107258. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2023.107258
Li, W., Cai, Z., & Xi, L. (2024). Urban green land use efficiency of resource-based cities in China: Multidimensional measurements, spatial-temporal changes, and driving factors. Sustainable Cities and Society, 104, Article 105299. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2024.105299
Lin, Y., & Zhong, Q. (2024). Does green finance policy promote green total factor productivity? Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in the green finance pilot zone. Clean Technologies and Environmental Policy, 26(8), 2661–2685. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10098-023-02729-3
Liu, C., & Xia, J. (2023). Online market, digital platform and resource allocation efficiency: The effect of price mechanism and data mechanism. China Industrial Economy, 7, 84–102. https://doi.org/10.19581/j.cnki.ciejournal.2023.07.004
Liu, R., Wang, D., Zhang, L., & Zhang, L. (2019). Can green financial development promote regional ecological efficiency? A case study of China. Natural Hazards, 95(1), 325–341. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-018-3502-x
Lv, C., Fan, J., & Lee, C. C. (2023). Can green credit policies improve corporate green production efficiency?. Journal of Cleaner Production, 397, Article 136573. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2023.136573
Ma, L., & Li, D. (2024). Would macro policy promote green and low-carbon transformation of energy companies?. International Review of Financial Analysis, 96, Article 103791. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2024.103791
Podobnik, B. (2006). Global energy shifts: Fostering sustainability in a turbulent age. Temple University Press.
Qu, S. Y. (2004). What does “energy transition” mean? China Energy, (08), 43–45.
Salazar, J. (1998, May). Environmental finance: Linking two world. In Workshop on Financial Innovations for Biodiversity (pp. 2–18). Bratislava, Slovakia.
Shen, Y., Xiao, Z., Huang, J., Deng, Y., & Yu, J. (2025). Impact of low-carbon energy structure transition on rural revitalization. International Review of Economics & Finance, 102, Article 104289. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2025.104289
Sun, H., & Chen, F. (2022). The impact of green finance on China’s regional energy consumption structure based on system GMM. Resources Policy, 76, Article 102588. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2022.102588
Wan, Q., Qian, J., Baghirli, A., & Aghayev, A. (2022). Green finance and carbon reduction: Implications for green recovery. Economic Analysis and Policy, 76, 901–913. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2022.09.022
Wang, Y., & Zhi, Q. (2016). The role of green finance in environmental protection: Two aspects of market mechanism and policies. Energy Procedia, 104, 311–316. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egypro.2016.12.053
Xiong, X., Wang, Y., Liu, B., He, W., & Yu, X. (2023). The impact of green finance on the optimization of industrial structure: Evidence from China. PLoS ONE, 18(8), Article e0289844. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0289844
Zhao, X., Benkraiem, R., Abedin, M. Z., & Zhou, S. (2024). The charm of green finance: Can green finance reduce corporate carbon emissions?. Energy Economics, 134, Article 107574. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107574
Zhang, D., Guo, Y., & Taghizadeh-Hesary, F. (2023). Green finance and energy transition to achieve net-zero emission target. Energy Economics, 126, Article 106936. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2023.106936
Zhang, W., Liu, X., Zhao, S., & Tang, T. (2024). Does green finance agglomeration improve carbon emission performance in China? A perspective of spatial spillover. Applied Energy, 358, Article 122561. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2023.122561
Zioło, M., Bąk, I., Cheba, K., Spoz, A., & Niedzielski, P. (2021). Sustainable financial systems toward sustainability in finance. Institutional and managerial approach. Procedia Computer Science, 192, 4237–4248. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.procs.2021.09.200
Zhou, X., Tang, X., & Zhang, R. (2020). Impact of green finance on economic development and environmental quality: A study based on provincial panel data from China. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 27(16), 19915–19932. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-020-08383-2
Zhou, X. X., Jia, M. Y., & Zhao, X. (2023). An empirical study and evolutionary game analysis of green finance promoting enterprise green technology innovation. China Industrial Economics, 6, 43–61. https://doi.org/10.19581/j.cnki.ciejournal.2023.06.002
View article in other formats
Published
Issue
Section
Copyright
Copyright (c) 2026 The Author(s). Published by Vilnius Gediminas Technical University.
License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.