Dividend policy in a crisis: a pre and post-COVID-19 comparison of DJIA and DAX companies

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3846/jbem.2026.25371

Abstract

This study examines the shifts in dividend policy drivers for companies listed on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and Deutscher Aktienindex (DAX) by comparing the pre-COVID-19 (2015–2019) and post-COVID-19 (2020– 2024) periods. Employing a two-stage methodology, we first use factor analysis to distill traditional and cash flow-based profitability indicators into key factors, followed by panel regression models to assess their impact on dividend payouts. Findings indicate that the 2020 crisis significantly altered dividend strategies. For DJIA firms, dividend policy shifted from asset-based profitability (pre-2020) to a strong reliance on equity-based profitability (ROE, CFROE) post-2020, reflecting investor preference for immediate returns during uncertainty. For DAX firms, cash flow-based profitability emerged as the primary driver post-2020, unlike the pre-crisis period where no profitability factor was significant, highlighting distinct market responses to economic shocks in the U.S. and Germany.

Keywords:

profitability ratios, cash flow-based profitability ratios, dividend payouts, dividend policy, factor analysis, DJIA companies, DAX companies

How to Cite

Hamad, M., Jobbágy, A., & Tömöri, G. (2026). Dividend policy in a crisis: a pre and post-COVID-19 comparison of DJIA and DAX companies. Journal of Business Economics and Management, 27(1), 16–37. https://doi.org/10.3846/jbem.2026.25371

Share

Published in Issue
January 6, 2026
Abstract Views
31

References

Abdelsalam, O., El-Masry, A., & Elsegini, S. (2008). Board composition, ownership structure and dividend policies in an emerging market: Further evidence from CASE 50. Managerial Finance, 34(12), 953–964. https://doi.org/10.1108/03074350810915879

Akolor, M., & Gujral, T. (2024). Determinant of dividend policy of firms listed on the Ghana Stock Exchange market. Educational Administration: Theory and Practice, 30(4), 1120–1127. https://doi.org/10.53555/kuey.v30i4.1619

Al-Malkawi, H. A. N., Rafferty, M., & Pillai, R. (2010). Dividend policy: A review of theories and empirical evidence. International Bulletin of Business Administration, 9(1), 171–200.

Al-Shattarat, H. K., Haddad, H., Haddad, H., Mahmoud, S. A., Syed, A. M., & Syed, A. M. (2023). The impact of liquidity ratios and cash flow sources in profitability in industrial companies listed in the Amman Stock Exchange. In B. A. M. Alareeni & I. Elgedawy (Eds.), Artificial Intelligence (AI) and finance: Vol. 448. Studies in systems, decision and control (pp. 733–743). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-39158-3_68

Allen, F., & Michaely, R. (2003). Payout policy. In Handbook of the economics of finance (vol. 1, pp. 337–429). Elsevier. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1574-0102(03)01011-2

Ambarwati, S. (2014). Perspektif bird in the hand: Penentu dividend payout ratio perusahaan manufaktur. Jurnal Keuangan dan Perbankan, 18(3), 345–357.

Baker, H., & Jabbouri, I. (2017). How Moroccan institutional investors view dividend policy. Managerial Finance, 43(12), 1332–1347. https://doi.org/10.1108/MF-06-2017-0215

Baker, H., Kapoor, S., & Jabbouri, I. (2018). Institutional perspectives of dividend policy in India. Qualitative Research in Financial Markets, 10(3), 324–342. https://doi.org/10.1108/QRFM-07-2017-0067

Baker, H. K., & Weigand, R. (2015). Corporate dividend policy revisited. Managerial Finance, 41(5), 483–501. https://doi.org/10.1108/COMPEL-10-2014-0244

Besim, S., & Adaoglu, C. (2018). Dividend payouts: Majority control and rent extraction. Journal of Business Economics and Management, 19(4), 648–672. https://doi.org/10.3846/jbem.2018.6808

Bushra, A., & Mirza, N. (2015). The determinants of corporate dividend policy in Pakistan. The Lahore Journal of Economics, 20(2), 77–98. https://doi.org/10.35536/lje.2015.v20.i2.a4

Damodaran, A. (2007). Valuation approaches and metrics: A survey of the theory and evidence. Foundations and Trends in Finance, 1(8), 693–784. https://doi.org/10.1561/0500000013

Easterbrook, F. H. (1984). Two agency-cost explanations of dividends. The American Economic Review, 74(4), 650–659. https://www.jstor.org/stable/1805130

Ejem, C. A., & Ogbonna, U. G. (2019). Modelling dividend policy and firms’ value relations in Nigeria. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 9(6), 171–176. https://doi.org/10.32479/ijefi.8849

Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (2001). Disappearing dividends: Changing firm characteristics or lower propensity to pay? Journal of Financial Economics, 60, 3–43. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-405X(01)00038-1

Frankfurter, G., Wood, B. G., & Wansley, J. (2003). Dividend policy: Theory and practice. Elsevier.

Ghafoor, A., Khan, M. A., Shah, S. A., & Khan, H. H. (2014). Inflation and dividend behavior of Pakistani firms: An empirical investigation using ARDL. International Journal of Business and Management, 9(9), 86–95. https://doi.org/10.5539/ijbm.v9n9p86

Gill, A., Biger, N., & Tibrewala, R. (2010). Determinants of dividend payout ratios: Evidence from the United States. The Open Business Journal, 3(1), 8–14. https://doi.org/10.2174/1874915101003010008

Gordon, M. J. (1963). Optimal investment and financing policy. The Journal of Finance, 18(2), 264–272. https://doi.org/10.2307/2977907

Grace, O. O., Patrick, E. E., & Ishola, R. A. (2019). Accounting information and dividend payout prediction in Nigerian listed manufacturing firms. Journal of Accounting and Taxation, 11(1), 9–16. https://doi.org/10.5897/JAT2018.0317

Graham, B., & Dodd, D. L. (1996). Security analysis: The classic 1934 edition. McGraw-Hill. (Original work published 1934).

Haddad, H. (2024). Factors affecting the profitability of industrial companies listed in Amman Stock Exchange. Montenegrin Journal of Economics, 20(1), 137–147.

Jensen, M. C. (1986). Agency costs of free cash flow, corporate finance, and takeovers. The American Economic Review, 76(2), 323–329. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.99580

Jensen, M. C., & Meckling, W. H. (1976). Theory of the firm: Managerial behavior, agency costs and ownership structure. Journal of Financial Economics, 3, 305–360. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-405X(76)90026-X

Kusuma, P. J., Hartoyo, S., & Sasongko, H. (2018). Analysis of factors that influence dividend payout ratio of coal companies in Indonesia Stock Exchange. Jurnal Dinamika Manajemen, 9(2), 189–197. https://doi.org/10.15294/jdm.v9i2.16417

Labhane, N. B., & Das, R. C. (2015). Determinants of dividend payout ratio: Evidence from Indian companies. Business and Economic Research, 5(2), 217–241. https://doi.org/10.5296/ber.v5i2.8154

Lintner, J. (1956). Distribution of incomes of corporations among dividends, retained earnings, and taxes. The American Economic Review, 46(2), 97–113. http://www.jstor.org/stable/1910664

Mats, V. (2024). Hedge performance of different asset classes in varying economic conditions. Radioelectronic and Computer Systems, 1(109), 217–234. https://doi.org/10.32620/reks.2024.1.17

Matsunaga, M. (2010). How to factor-analyze your data right: Do’s, don’ts, and how-to’s. International Journal of Psychological Research, 3(1), 97–110. https://doi.org/10.21500/20112084.854

Miller, M. H. (2006). The Modigliani-Miller theorem: A cornerstone of modern finance. In W. F. Sharpe (Ed.), William F. Sharpe’s handbook of modern finance (pp. 77–93).

Modigliani, F., & Miller, M. H. (1958). The cost of capital, corporation finance, and the theory of investment. American Economic Review, 48(3), 261–297.

Modigliani, F., & Miller, M. H. (1961). Dividend policy, growth, and the valuation of shares. The Journal of Business, 34(4), 411–433. https://doi.org/10.1086/294442

Naceur, S. B., Goaied, M., & Belanès, A. (2006). On the determinants and dynamics of dividend policy. SSRN. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.889330

Nugraha, J. (2019). Investment opportunity set, dividend policy and corporate value: Evidence from trade, services and investment sector of Indonesia Stock Exchange. Jurnal Nusantara Aplikasi Manajemen Bisnis, 4(2), 151–164. https://doi.org/10.29407/nusamba.v4i2.12763

Nurhikmawaty, D., Isnurhadi, I., Widiyanti, M., & Yuliani, Y. (2020). The effect of debt to equity ratio and return on equity on stock return with dividend policy as intervening variables in subsectors property and real estate on BEI. Edunomic Jurnal Pendidikan Ekonomi, 8(2), 72. https://doi.org/10.33603/ejpe.v8i2.3531

Nurlita, M. I., & Gunarsih, T. (2021). Analysis of the effect of dividend policies on corporate value with good corporate governance (GCG) as moderating variables. International Journal of Business, Humanities, Education and Social Sciences (IJBHES), 3(1), 12–17. https://doi.org/10.46923/ijbhes.v3i1.100

Pinto, G., Rastogi, S., & Kanoujiya, J. (2022). Does ownership structure influence dividend distribution policy in India? Evidence using panel data analysis. Global Business Review, 15(2), 197–222. https://doi.org/10.1177/09746862221129342

Poterba, J. M., & Summers, L. H. (1984). The economic effects of dividend taxation. National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w1353

Rahgozar, R. (2015). The relationship between dividend- and non-dividend-paying stock prices when considering financial distress. American Journal of Finance and Accounting, 4(1), 19. https://doi.org/10.1504/AJFA.2015.067795

Said, S. (2024). Dividend policy and firm performance: A review of theories and empirical literature. Open Access Library Journal, 11(10), 1–9. https://doi.org/10.4236/oalib.1112284

Shefrin, H. (2018). Behavioral corporate finance: Concepts and cases for teaching behavioral finance. McGraw-Hill Education.

Thapa, M. (2021). Effects of financial determinants on dividend payout: Evidence from Nepalese retail banks. The Batuk, 7(1), 24–37. https://doi.org/10.3126/batuk.v7i1.35344

Tijjani, A. A., & Norfian, M. (2019). The impact of dividend policy on the shareholders value of listed firms in the Nigerian petroleum marketing industry. International Journal of Recent Technology and Engineering, 8(2S9), 902–905. https://doi.org/10.35940/ijrte.B1185.0982S919

Usman, B., Hasnam, M. G., Nurazi, R., Baihaqi, A., & Aujirapongpan, S. (2024). Exploring investor attention in Shariah markets, macroeconomic influences, and corporate performance: Insights from Indonesia. Social Sciences & Humanities Open, 10, Article 101015. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssaho.2024.101015

Walter, J. E. (1963). Dividend policy: Its influence on the value of the enterprise. The Journal of Finance, 18(2), 280–291. https://doi.org/10.2307/2977909

Wambua, J. (2019). Effects of stable dividend policy on market value of listed firms at Nairobi securities exchange. European Journal of Business and Management, 11(30), 95–105. https://doi.org/10.7176/EJBM/11-30-11

Wang, W., & Yang, J. (2024). The inverted U-shaped relationship between corporate social responsibility and default risk: The role of financing constraints. Heliyon, 10(14), Article e34304. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e34304

World Health Organization. (2020, March 11). WHO Director-General’s opening remarks at the media briefing on COVID-19. https://www.who.int/news-room/speeches/item/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19---11-march-2020

Yahaya, O. (2019). Impact of dividend payout on profitability of consumer goods firm quoted on Nigeria stock exchange. Research Journal of Finance and Accounting, 10(11), 51–58. https://doi.org/10.7176/RJFA/10-11-06

Zafar, S., Khan, N. M., & Waqas, M. (2023). Dividend payout determinants in small and medium-sized manufacturing firms: an empirical analysis. Contemporary Issues in Social Sciences and Management Practices, 4(4), 223–233. https://doi.org/10.61503/cissmp.v2i4.95

View article in other formats

CrossMark check

CrossMark logo

Published

2026-01-06

Issue

Section

Articles

How to Cite

Hamad, M., Jobbágy, A., & Tömöri, G. (2026). Dividend policy in a crisis: a pre and post-COVID-19 comparison of DJIA and DAX companies. Journal of Business Economics and Management, 27(1), 16–37. https://doi.org/10.3846/jbem.2026.25371

Share