Assessing the prospective impact of Brexit on the global architecture of power. A multidimensional approach focusing on UK and EU
Abstract
Brexit has undeniably had effects on power relations in the world economy and beyond. This article aims to measure the dimensions of power for the European Union, the United States and the BRICS countries and to provide a case study about the prospective impact of Brexit on the EU’s and the UK’s positions within the global architecture of power. In this regard, the paper proposes a new method of measurement of the world power by using six dimensions of power, using data before the Brexit procedures started. The highlights of the empirical findings are that the exclusion of the UK has strengthened EU’s position only for the economic dimension of power, while for the UK, the most dominant repositioning within the power architecture due to the Brexit is recorded for the political & governance. The findings can contribute to raising awareness among policy–makers, companies, institutions and the population, both at European and at national level, about populist tendencies and attitudes towards potential separations of some member countries from the European community and their consequences for the European development from multiple perspectives.
Keyword : international order, world power, Brexit impact scenario, multidimensional index, Euclidian distance, economic powers, BRICS countries
How to Cite
Aursulesei, T.-M., Maha, L.-G., Topliceanu, S.-C., & Viorica, E.-D. (2024). Assessing the prospective impact of Brexit on the global architecture of power. A multidimensional approach focusing on UK and EU. Journal of Business Economics and Management, 25(2), 396–418. https://doi.org/10.3846/jbem.2024.21222
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
References
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Kuzemko, C., Bloondeel, M., & Froggatt, A. (2022). Brexit implications for sustainable energy in the UK. Policy and Politics, 50(4), 548–567. https://doi.org/10.1332/030557321X16510710991392
Lawless, M., & Morgenroth, E. (2019). The product and sector level impact of a hard Brexit across the EU. Contemporary Social Science, 14(2), 189–207. https://doi.org/10.1080/21582041.2018.1558276
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Begg, I., & Mushovel, F. (2016). The economic impact of Brexit: Jobs, growth and the public finances. European Institute. The London School of Economics and Political Science. https://eprints.lse.ac.uk/67008/1/Hearing-11---The-impact-of-Brexit-on-jobs-and-economic-growth-sumary.pdf
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Cornell University, INSEAD & WIPO. (2018). Global Innovation Index 2018: Energizing the world with innovation. (11th ed.). S. Dutta, B. Lanvin, & S. Wunsch-Vincent (Eds.). Ithaca, Fontainebleau, Geneva. https://www.wipo.int/edocs/pubdocs/en/wipo_pub_gii_2018.pdf
Cornell University, INSEAD, & WIPO. (2017). The Global Innovation Index 2017: Innovation feeding the world. (10th ed.). S. Dutta, B. Lanvin, & S. Wunsch-Vincent (Eds.). Ithaca, Fontainebleau, & Geneva. https://www.wipo.int/edocs/pubdocs/en/wipo_pub_gii_2017.pdf
Cornell University, INSEAD, & WIPO. (2016). The Global Innovation Index 2016: Winning with global innovation. S. Dutta, B. Lanvin, & S. Wunsch-Vincent (Eds.). Ithaca, Fontainebleau, & Geneva. https://www.wipo.int/edocs/pubdocs/en/wipo_pub_gii_2016.pdf
Cornell University, INSEAD, & WIPO. (2015). The Global Innovation Index 2015: Effective innovation policies for development. S. Dutta, B. Lanvin, & S. Wunsch-Vincent (Eds.). Ithaca, Fontainebleau, & Geneva. https://www.wipo.int/edocs/pubdocs/en/wipo_gii_2015.pdf
Cornell University, INSEAD, & WIPO. (2014). The Global Innovation Index 2014: The human factor in innovation (2nd ed.). S. Dutta, B. Lanvin, & S. Wunsch-Vincent (Eds.). Fontainebleau, Ithaca, & Geneva. https://www.wipo.int/edocs/pubdocs/en/economics/gii/gii_2014.pdf
Cornell University, INSEAD, & WIPO. (2013). The Global Innovation Index 2013: The local dynamics of innovation. S. Dutta & B. Lanvin (Eds.). Geneva, Ithaca, & Fontainebleau. https://www.wipo.int/edocs/pubdocs/en/economics/gii/gii_2013.pdf
Dahl, R. (1957). The concept of power. Behavioral Science, 2(3), 201–215. https://doi.org/10.1002/bs.3830020303
Dhingra, S., Ottaviano, G., Sampson, T., & Van Reenen, J. (2016, March). The consequences of Brexit for UK trade and living standards. (CEP Brexit Analysis No. 2). Centre for Economic Performance. https://eprints.lse.ac.uk/66144/1/__lse.ac.uk_storage_LIBRARY_Secondary_libfile_shared_repository_Content_LSE%20BrexitVote%20blog_brexit02.pdf
Dimitrijević, D. (2023). The struggle for a new international economic order. Política Internacional, 5(3), 6–21. https://rpi.isri.cu/index.php/rpi/article/view/406
Emerson, M., Busse, M., Di Salvo, M., Gros, D., & Pelkmans, J. (2017, March). An assessment of the economic impact of Brexit on the EU27. CEPS. https://www.ceps.eu/ceps-publications/assessment-economic-impact-brexit-eu27/
Enerdata. (2020). Global Energy Statistical Yearbook 2021. https://energydata.info/dataset/key-world-energy-statistics-enerdata
Felbermayr, G., Gröschl, J., Heiland, I., Braml, M., & Steininger, M. (2017, June). Okonomische Effekte eines Brexit auf die deutsche und europaische Wirtschaft [Economic effects of a Brexit on the German and European economy]. IFO Institute.
Freddy, H., & Thomas, J. (2023). Status competition: The BRICS’s quest for influence in global governance. China Report, 59(4), 388–401. https://doi.org/10.1177/00094455231187054
Gelb, L. H. (2009). Power rules: How common sense can rescue American foreign policy. Harper Collins.
Glassner, M. I., & Fahrer, C. (2004). Political geography (3rd ed.). Wiley.
Goldstein, J. S., & Pevehouse, J. C. (2014). International relations (10th ed.). Pearson.
Haass, R. N. (2008). The age of nonpolarity: What will follow US dominance? Foreign Affairs, 87(3), 44–56.
Highman, L., Marginson, S., & Papatsiba, V. (2023). Higher education and research: Multiple negative effects and no new opportunities after Brexit. Contemporary Social Sciences, 18(2), 216–234. https://doi.org/10.1080/21582041.2023.2192044
Irwin, G. (2015, June). Brexit: The impact on the UK and the EU. Global Counsel.
Jablonsky, D. (2008). National power. In B. Jr. Boone (Ed.), Guide to national security issues: Vol. 1. Theory of war and strategy (3 ed., pp. 126–134). U.S. Army War College. https://layanan.hukum.uns.ac.id/data/PDIH%20File/e-book/Theory%20of%20War%20and%20Strategy.pdf
Ke, L., Liu, Q., Han, K., & Zhang, W. (2022). The impact of Brexit on supply chain cost and Ro–Ro traffic at Dover. Maritime Policy & Management. https://doi.org/10.1080/03088839.2022.2158382
Kebabdjian, G. (1994). L’economie mondiale: Enjeux nouveaux, nouvelles théories [The global economy: New challenges, new theories]. SEUIL.
Khanna, P. (2008). The second world: Empires and influence in the new global order. Random House.
Krauthammer, C. (2002). The unipolar moment revisited. The National Interest, 70(3), 5–18.
Kuzemko, C., Bloondeel, M., & Froggatt, A. (2022). Brexit implications for sustainable energy in the UK. Policy and Politics, 50(4), 548–567. https://doi.org/10.1332/030557321X16510710991392
Lawless, M., & Morgenroth, E. (2019). The product and sector level impact of a hard Brexit across the EU. Contemporary Social Science, 14(2), 189–207. https://doi.org/10.1080/21582041.2018.1558276
Marginean, S., Orastean, R., & Sava, R. (2020). The road to the economics of Brexit: A new direction in economic research. Journal of Business Economics and Management, 21(6), 1665–1682. https://doi.org/10.3846/jbem.2020.13505
Marini, G. (2024). Brexit and the war for talents: Push & pull evidence about competitiveness. Higher Education, 1–16. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10734-024-01186-1
Mearsheimer, J. (2001). The tragedy of great power politics (1st ed.). WW Norton & Company.
Miller, T., Kim, A. B., & Roberts, J. M. (2019). 2019 Index of Economic Freedom: 25th Anniversary Edition. The Heritage Foundation. https://www.iberglobal.com/files/2019-1/economic_freedom_index_2019.pdf
Morchid, K., & O’Mahony, M. (2019). Transport sector impacts of a border between Ireland and Northern Ireland after a hard Brexit. Journal of Advanced Transportation, 2019, Article 9029852. https://doi.org/10.1155/2019/9029852
Morgenthau, H., & Thompson, K. W. (2005). Politics among Nations. The struggle for power and peace (7th ed.). McGraw–Hill Education.
Nardo, M., Saisana, M., Saltelli, A., Tarantola, S., Hoffman, A., & Giovannini, E. (2008). Handbook on constructing composite indicators and user guide. OECD.
Nenci, S., & Montalbano, P. (2011). Trade partners and trade clusters: China, India, Brazil and South Africa in the global trading system (Working Paper No. 125). Roma Tre Universita Degli Studi. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1996821
Nye, J. S. Jr. (2011). The future of power. Public Affairs.
Oberhofer, H., & Pfaffermayr, M. (2021). Estimating the trade and welfare effects of Brexit: A panel data structural gravity model. Canadian Journal of Economics, 54(1), 338–375. https://doi.org/10.1111/caje.12494
OECD (n.d.). OECD Stat. https://statsoecdorg/
Oliver, T. (2023). Reflections: the UK after Brexit. International Politics. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41311-023-00472-6
Pausenberger, E. (1983). How powerful are the multinational corporations? Intereconomics, 18(3), 130–136. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02928572
Pollitt, M. (2022). The further economic consequences of Brexit: Energy. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 38(1), 165–178. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxrep/grab044
Prikhodko, O. (2022). Brexit’s implications for the transatlantic relationship. Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 92(2), 133–141. https://doi.org/10.1134%2FS1019331622080093
Rojas-Romagosa, H. (2016, June). Trade effects of Brexit for the Netherlands. (CPB Background Document). CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. https://www.cpb.nl/sites/default/files/omnidownload/CPB-Backgroud-Document-June-2016-Trade-effects-of-brexit-for-the-netherlands.pdf
Schwab, K. (2017). The Global Competitiveness Report 2017–2018. World Economic Forum. https://www3.weforum.org/docs/GCR2017-2018/05FullReport/TheGlobalCompetitivenessReport2017%E2%80%932018.pdf
Tellis, A. J., Bially, J., Layne, C., & McPherson, M. (2000). Measuring national power in the postindustrial age. Rand. https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1110/RAND_MR1110.pdf
The World Bank. (n.d.-a). World Development Indicators. https://databankworldbankorg/source/world–development–indicators
The World Bank. (n.d.-b). Worldwide Governance Indicators. https://databankworldbankorg/source/worldwide–governance–indicators.
The United Nations Development Programme. (n.d.). Human Development Index. All composite indices and components time series (1990–2022). https://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/2023-24_HDR/HDR23-24_Composite_indices_complete_time_series.csv
Transparency International. (2019). Corruption Perceptions Index 2019. https://wwwtransparencyorg/en/cpi/2019
Vandenbussche, H., Connell, W., & Simons, W. (2022). Global value chains, trade shocks and jobs: An application to Brexit. The World Economy, 45(8), 2338–2369. https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13259
Waltz, K. N. (2010). Theory of international politics (1st ed.). Waveland Press.