The road to the economics of Brexit: a new direction in economic research


Brexit became an important subject not only for academics but also for international institutions, research centers and consultancy companies, think tanks and independent experts. The aim of this article is to: (1) provide a general approach of the literature; (2) see how the effects of Brexit are explained in such short-term approach and how important are the economic issues in the debates; (3) identify directions for future research, arguing that a new field of study emerged. The estimation of economic impact of Brexit has generated a reach literature in a short period, which identifies the main issues, rather than providing strong results and conclusions. In order to fill this gap, our paper provide a systematic review of the most important contributions and group them in four research directions: overall economic implications of Brexit; Brexit and trade; migration and labour market; financial issues and Brexit.

Keyword : economics of Brexit, economic research, GDP, trade, migration and labour market, financial issues

How to Cite
Mărginean, S. C., Orăștean, R., & Sava, R. (2020). The road to the economics of Brexit: a new direction in economic research. Journal of Business Economics and Management, 21(6), 1665-1682.
Published in Issue
Oct 14, 2020
Abstract Views
PDF Downloads
Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.


Adesina, T. (2017). Estimating volatility persistence under a Brexit-vote structural break. Finance Research Letters, 23, 65–68.

Alexander, K., Barnard, C., Ferran, E., Lang, A., & Moloney, N. (2018). Brexit and financial services:
law and policy. Hart Publishing.

Applelbaum, B. (2019). The Economist’s hour. False prophets, free markets, and the fracture of society. Little, Brown and Company. Hachette Book Group.

Armstrong, K. A. (2017). Brexit time: Leaving the EU – Why, How and When? Cambridge University Press.

Baker, J., Carreras, O., Ebell, M., Hurst, I., Kirby, S., Meaning, J., Piggott, R., & Warren, J. (2016a). The short-term economic impact of leaving the EU (National Institute Economic Review 236). National Institute of Economic and Social Research.

Baker, J., Carreras, O., Kirby, S., Meaning, J., & Piggott, R. (2016b). Modelling events: the short-term economic impact of leaving the EU (NIESR Discussion Paper 461). National Institute of Economic and Social Research.

Bashir, U., Zebende, G. F., Yu, Y., Hussain, M., Ali, A., & Ghulam, A. (2019). Differential market reactions to pre and post Brexit Referendum. Physica a-Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications, 515, 151–158.

BBC. (2019). EU migration to UK “underestimated” by ONS. BBC News.

Begg, I. (2017). Making sense of the costs and benefits of Brexit: Challenges for economists. Atlantic Economic Journal, 45, 299–315.

Belke, A., & Gros, D. (2017). The economic impact of Brexit: Evidence from modelling free trade agreements. Atlantic Economic Journal, 45, 317–331.

Bootle, R., Jessop, J., Lyons, G., & Minford, P. (2018). Alternative Brexit economic analysis.

Boulanger, P., & Philippidis, G. (2015). The end of a romance? A note on the quantitative impacts of a “Brexit” from the EU. Journal of Agricultural Economics, 66, 832–842.

Brakman, S., Garretsen, H., & Kohl, T. (2017). Consequences of Brexit and options for a “Global Britain” (CESifo Working Paper 6648). CESifo.

Broadbent, B. (2017). Brexit and the pound. London: Bank of England, Speech at Imperial College.

Busch, B., & Matthes, J. (2016a). Brexit – the economic impact: a meta-analysis (IW Report 10). Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft. Köln.

Busch, B., & Matthes, J. (2016b). Brexit: the economic impact – a survey. CESifo Forum.

Campos, N. (2016). Lousy experts: Looking back at the ex ante estimates of the costs of Brexit.

Campos, N. (2019). B for Brexit: A survey of the economics academic literature (IZA Discussion Paper 12134).

Campos, N., & Coricelli, F. (2015). Some unpleasant Brexit econometrics.

Campos, N., & Coricelli, F. (Eds.). (2017). The economics of UK-EU relations. From the Treaty of Rome to the vote for Brexit. Springer.

Centre for Macroeconomics [CFM]. (2016). Survey – Brexit: The potential of a financial catastrophe and long-term consequences for the UK financial sector.

Chadha, J. (2016). When experts agree: How to take economic advice over the referendum.

Corsetti, G., & Müller, G. (2016). The pound and the macroeconomic effects of Brexit.

Crafts, N. (2016). The growth effects of EU membership for the UK: A review of the evidence (Working Paper Series 280). University of Warwick: Centre for Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy, Department of Economics.

Danielsson, J., Macrae, R., & Zigrand, J.-P. (2016). On the financial market consequences of Brexit.

Dhingra, S., Ottaviano, G., Sampson, T., & Van Reenen, J. (2016). The consequences of Brexit for UK trade and living standards. Centre for Economic Performance.

Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs [DG-ECFIN]. (2020). European Economic Forecast. Spring.

Dokoupil, J., & Preis, J. (2016). Brexit and migration wave from the Middle East: Possible impacts on future development of the Schengen Area. [Conference Presentation]. 16th International Scientific Conference Globalization and Its Socio-Economic Consequences, Rajecke Teplice, Slovakia.

Dunt, I. (2018). Brexit: What the hell happens now? Canbury Press.

Ebell, M., & Warren, J. (2016). The long-term economic impact of leaving the EU (National Institute Economic Review 236). National Institute of Economic and Social Research.

Economist. (2018). The economics of Brexit. How bad could it get? The Economist.

Emmerson, C., Johnson, P., Mitchell, I., & Phillips, D. (2016). Brexit and the UK’s public finances (IFS Report 116). Institute of Fiscal Studies, London.

European Parliament. (2017). An assessment of the economic impact of Brexit on the EU27.

Freedman, J. (2017). Tax and Brexit. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 33.

Gerlach, S., & Giamberardino, E. D. (2016). The Brexit referendum and sterling.

Hantzsche, A., Kara, A., & Young, G. (2018). The economic effects of the Government’s proposed Brexit deal. National Institute of Economic and Social Research.

HM Treasury. (2016a). HM Treasury analysis: The immediate economic impact of leaving the EU (Cm 9252). HM Government, London.

HM Treasury. (2016b). HM Treasury analysis: The long economic impact of EU membership and the alternatives (Cm 9250). HM Government, London.

International Monetary Fund [IMF]. (2016). United Kingdom – 2016 Article IV Consultation Concluding Statement of the Mission.

Jackson, K., & Shepotylo, O. (2018). Post-Brexit trade survival: Looking beyond the European Union. Economic Modelling, 73(C), 317–328.

Jackson, P. (2016). Brexit – what happens to banking.

James, S., & Quaglia, L. (2019). Brexit, the City and the contingent power of finance. New Political Economy, 24, 258–271.

Kahn, R., & Tananbaum, S. A. (2016). Brexit at two months: A slow burn in European Integration. Global Economics Monthly. Council on Foreign Relations.

Kierzenkowski, R., Pain, N., Rusticelli, E., & Zwart, S. (2016). The economic consequences of Brexit: A taxing decision (OECD Economic Policy Paper 16). OECD.

KPMG. (2017). Brexit: The impact on sectors. KPMG Economics Insights.

Martill, B., & Staiger, U. (2018). Brexit and beyond. Rethinking the futures of Europe. UCL Press.

Minford, P. (2015). Evaluating European trading arrangements (Cardiff Economics Working Paper E2015/17). Cardiff Business School.

Minford, P. (2017). A budget for Brexit. Economic report.

Minford, P. (2018). A budget for Brexit update.

Minford, P., Gupta, S., Le, V. P. M., Mahambare, V., & Xu, Y. (2016). Should Britain leave the EU? An economic analysis of a troubled relationship (2 ed.). Institute of Economic Affairs, London.

Nabarro, B., & Schultz, C. (2019). UK economic outlook in four Brexit scenarios. The IFS Green Budget: October 2019. Institute for Fiscal Studies.

Obstfeld, M. (2016). The initial economic impact of Brexit: An update to early December 2016. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2, 359–366.

Office for Budget Responsibility [OBR]. (2018). Brexit and the OBR’s forecasts (OBR Discussion Paper 3). Office for Budget Responsibility.

Ottaviano, G. I. P., Pessoa, J. P., Sampson, T., & Van Reenen, J. (2014). Brexit or Fixit? The trade and welfare effects of leaving the European Union (CEP Policy Analysis, CEPPA016). London School of Economics, Center for Economic Performance, London.

Pain, N., & Young, G. (2004). The macroeconomic impact of UK withdrawal from the EU. Economic Modelling, 21, 37–408.

Petrongolo, B. (2016). Brexit and the UK labour market. In R. Baldwin (Ed.), Brexit beckons: Thinking ahead by leading economics. CEPR.

Portes, J., & Forte, G. (2017). The economic impact of Brexit-induced reductions in migration. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 33, S31–S44.

Pricewaterhouse Coopers [PwC]. (2016). Leaving the EU: Implications for the UK economy.

Samitasa, A., Polyzosb, S., & Siriopoulosa, C. (2018.) Brexit and financial stability: An agent-based simulation. Economic Modelling, 69, 181–192.

Sampson, T. (2017). Brexit: The economics of international disintegration. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 31(4), 163–184.

Simionescu, M., Bilan, Y., Smrcka, L., & Vincurova, Z. (2017a). The effects of European economic integration and the impact of Brexit on the UK immigrants from the CEE countries. E & M Ekonomie a Management, 20, 29–47.

Simionescu, M., Strielkowski, W., & Kalyugina, S. (2017b). The impact of Brexit on labour migration and labour markets in the United Kingdom and the EU. Terra Economicus, 15, 148–156.

Steinberg, J. B. (2019). Brexit and the macroeconomic impact of trade policy uncertainty. Journal of International Economics, 117, 175–195.

Sumption, M. (2017). Labour immigration after Brexit: Questions and trade-offs in designing a work permit system for EU citizens. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 33, S45–S53.

Tetlow, G., & Stojanovic, A. (2018). Understanding the economic impact of Brexit. Institute for Government.

Troitiño, D. R., Kerikmäe, T., & Chochia, A. (2018). Brexit: History, reasoning and perspectives. Springer.

Van Reenen, J. (2016). Brexit’s long-run effects on the UK economy. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 47(2), 367–383.

Van Reenen, J. (2017a). Brexit and the future of globalization (Centre for Economic Performance Special Paper 35). London School of Economics, London.

Van Reenen, J. (2017b). Brexit’s long-run effects on the UK economy. Brooking Papers on Economic Activity, fall.

Vandenbussche, H., Connell, W., & Simons, W. (2017). Global value chains, trade shocks and jobs: An application to Brexit.

Welfens, P. J., & Hanrahan, D. (2017). The Brexit dynamics: British and EU27 challenges after the EU Referendum. Intereconomics. Review of European Economic Policy, 52, 302–307.

Whitehall. (2018). EU exit analysis – cross Whitehall briefing.