Housing market dynamics under a pegged exchange rate – a study of Hong Kong
Abstract
This study explores the major determinants of prices and rents of properties in the mass housing market and in the luxury housing market of Hong Kong. The findings show that property price (and rental) dynamics are primarily driven by demand factors, rather than by housing supply. While macroeconomic factors and the provision of subsidized homeownership, to varying degrees, influence housing prices and/or rents, it is the result of U.S. monetary policy which has directly (through changes in money supply) and indirectly (through the wealth effect from a bullish stock market fuelled by unconventional monetary policy such as Quantitative Easing (QE) triggered the current affordability issue. Some policy implications with reference to recent U.S. monetary policy developments as well as to the Linked Exchange Rate System between Hong Kong Dollar and U.S. Dollar are then discussed.
Keywords:
housing market dynamics, market fundamentals, stock market, assisted homeownership, housing supply, U.S. monetary policyHow to Cite
Yu, K. H., & Hui, E. C. M. (2018). Housing market dynamics under a pegged exchange rate – a study of Hong Kong. International Journal of Strategic Property Management, 22(2), 93-109. https://doi.org/10.3846/ijspm.2018.441
Share
License
Copyright (c) 2018 The Author(s). Published by Vilnius Gediminas Technical University.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
References
AETM. (1991). Determinants of the prices of established housing. A report published by Applied Economics PTY LTD and Travers Morgan PTY LTD, Australia.
Aoki, K., Proudman, J., & Vlieghe, G. (2004). House prices, consumption, and monetary policy: a financial accelerator approach. Journal of Financial Intermediation, 13(4), 414-435. <a href= "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfi.2004.06.003" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfi.2004.06.003</a>
Arnott, R. (1987). Economic theory and housing. In E. S. Mills (Ed.), Handbook of regional urban economics, Vol. 2 Urban economics (pp. 959-988). New York: Elsevier Science Publishing.
Arrondela, L., & Lefebvreb, B. (2001). Consumption and investment motives in housing wealth accumulation: a French study. Journal of Urban Economics, 50(1), 112-137. <a href= "https://doi.org/10.1006/juec.2000.2209" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://doi.org/10.1006/juec.2000.2209</a>
Bacher, J. (1993). Keeping to the marketplace: the evolution of Canadian housing policy. Montreal: McGill-Queen’s University Press.
Balchin, P. (Ed.). (1996). Housing policy in Europe. London: Routledge. <a href= "https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203436417" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203436417</a>
Ball, M. (1994). The 1980s property boom. Environment and Planning A, 26, 671-695. <a href= "https://doi.org/10.1068/a260671" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://doi.org/10.1068/a260671</a>
Bardhan, A. D., Datta, R., Edelstein, R. H., & Lum, S. K. (2003). A tale of two sectors: upward mobility and the private housing market in Singapore. Journal of Housing Economics, 12(2), 83-105. <a href= "https://doi.org/10.1016/S1051-1377(03)00016-0" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://doi.org/10.1016/S1051-1377(03)00016-0</a>
Bauer, M. D., & Rudebusch, G. D. (2011). The signaling channel for Federal Reserve bond purchases. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper 2011–21.
Beltratti, A., & Morana, C. (2010). International house prices and macroeconomic fluctuations. Journal of Banking and Finance, 34, 533-545. <a href= "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2009.08.020" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2009.08.020</a>
Berkovec, J. (1989). A general equilibrium model of housing consumption and investment. Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 2(3), 157-172. <a href= "https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00152345" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00152345</a>
Bernanke, B. S. (2012). Monetary policy since the onset of the crisis. Speech at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Symposium, 31 August 2012.
Bosworth, B., Burtless, G., & Sabelhaus, J. (1991). The decline in saving: evidence from household surveys. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1, 183-241. <a href= "https://doi.org/10.2307/2534640" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://doi.org/10.2307/2534640</a>
Bourassa, S. C., & Hendershott, P. H. (1995). Australian capital city real housing prices, 1979–1993. Australian Economic Review, 3, 16-26. <a href= "https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8462.1995.tb00990.x" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8462.1995.tb00990.x</a>
Breedon, F., & Joyce, M. A. S. (1992). House prices, arrears, and possessions. Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin (pp. 173-179).
Brueckner, J. K. (1997). Consumption and investment motives and the portfolio choices of homeowners. Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 15(2), 159-180. <a href= "https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1007777532293" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1007777532293</a>
Buckley, R., & Ermisch, J. F. (1982). Theory and empiricism in the econometric modelling of house prices. Urban Studies, 20(1), 83-90. <a href= "https://doi.org/10.1080/713703151" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://doi.org/10.1080/713703151</a>
Case, B., Goetzmann, W., & Rouwenhorst, K. G. (1999). Global real estate markets – cycles and fundamentals. Working Paper, No. 7/99. Yale International Center for Finance.
Case, K. E., & Shiller, R. J. (1989). The efficiency of the market for single family homes. American Economic Review, 79(1), 125-137.
Cassidy, H. J., Dennis, B., & Yang, T. T. (2008). Home appreciation participation notes: a solution to housing affordability and the current mortgage crisis. International Real Estate Review, 11(2), 126-141.
Chen, M. C., Chang, C. O., Yang, C. Y., & Hsieh, B. M. (2012). Investment demand and housing prices in an emerging economy. Journal of Real Estate Research, 34(3), 345-373.
Chen, M. C., & Patel, K. (2002). An empirical analysis of determination of house prices in the Taipei area. Taiwan Economic Review, 30(4), 563-595. <a href= "https://doi.org/10.6277/ter.2002.304.5" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://doi.org/10.6277/ter.2002.304.5</a>
Chen, M. C., Tsai, I. C., & Chang, C. O. (2007). House prices and household income: do they move apart? Evidence from Taiwan. Habitat International, 31, 243-256. <a href= "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.habitatint.2007.02.005" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://doi.org/10.1016/j.habitatint.2007.02.005</a>
Ching, L. K., & Tyabji, A. (1991). Homeownership policy in Singapore: an assessment. Housing Studies, 6(1), 15-28. <a href= "https://doi.org/10.1080/02673039108720694" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://doi.org/10.1080/02673039108720694</a>
Corsetti, G., Pesenti, P., & Roubini, N. (1999). What caused the Asian currency and financial crisis? Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Retrieved from <a href= "https://www.newyorkfed.org/me-dialibrary/media/research/economists/pesenti/whatjapwor.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://www.newyorkfed.org/me-dialibrary/media/research/economists/pesenti/whatjapwor.pdf</a>
Darrat, A. F., & Glascock, J. L. (1989). Real estate returns, money and fiscal deficits: is the real estate market efficient?. Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 2, 197-208. <a href= "https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00152348" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00152348</a>
Drake, L. (1993). Modelling UK house prices using cointegration: an application of the Johansen technique. Applied Economics, 25, 1225-1228. <a href= "https://doi.org/10.1080/00036849300000183" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://doi.org/10.1080/00036849300000183</a>
Elbourne, A. (2008). The U.K. housing market and the monetary policy transmission mechanism: an SVAR approach. Journal of Housing Economics, 17, 65-87. <a href= "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhe.2007.09.002" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhe.2007.09.002</a>
Fama, E. F. (1990). Stock returns, expected returns, and real activity. Journal of Finance, 45(4), 1089-1108. <a href= "https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1990.tb02428.x" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1990.tb02428.x</a>
Forrest, R., & Murie, A. (1988). Selling the welfare state, the privatization of public housing. London: Routledge.
Forrest, R., Murie, A., & Williams, P. (1990). Homeownership: differentiation and fragmentation. London: Unwin Hyman.
Gagnon, J., Raskin, M., Remache, J., & Sack, B. (2011). Large-scale asset purchases by the Federal Reserve: did they work?. Economic Policy Review, 17(1), 41-59.
Garfinkel, M. R., & Thornton, D. L. (1989). The link between M1 and monetary base in the 1980s. Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis. Retrieved from <a href= "https://research.stlouisfed.org/publica-tions/review/89/09/Link_Sep_Oct1989.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://research.stlouisfed.org/publica-tions/review/89/09/Link_Sep_Oct1989.pdf</a>
Geske, R.; Roll, R. (1983). The fiscal and monetary linkage between stock returns and inflation. Journal of Finance, 28(1), 7-33. <a href= "https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1983.tb03623.x" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1983.tb03623.x</a>
Gibson, W. E. (1972). Interest rates and inflationary expectations: new evidence. American Economic Review, 62(5), 854-865.
Goodhart, C., & Hofmann, B. (2008). House prices, money, credit, and the macroeconomy. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 24(1), 180-205. <a href= "https://doi.org/10.1093/oxrep/grn009" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://doi.org/10.1093/oxrep/grn009</a>
Hamilton, J. D., & Wu, J. C. (2012). The effectiveness of alternative monetary policy tools in a zero lower bound environment. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 44(1), 3-46.
Hays, R. (1994). Housing privatization: social goals and policy strategies. Journal of Urban Affairs, 16(4), 295-317. <a href= "https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9906.1994.tb00332.x" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9906.1994.tb00332.x</a>
Henderson, J. V., & Ioannides, Y. M. (1983). A model of housing tenure choice. American Economic Review, 73(1), 98-113.
Henderson, J. V., & Ioannides, Y. M. (1987). Ownership occupancy: investment vs consumption demand. Journal of Urban Economics, 21, 228-241. <a href= "https://doi.org/10.1016/0094-1190(87)90016-7" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://doi.org/10.1016/0094-1190(87)90016-7</a>
Hoesli, M., Lizieri, C., & MacGregor, B. (2008). The inflation hedging characteristics of U.S. and U.K. investments: a multi-factor error correction approach. Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 36, 183-206. <a href= "https://doi.org/10.1007/s11146-007-9062-6" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://doi.org/10.1007/s11146-007-9062-6</a>
Hui, C. M., Yu, K. H., & Ho, K. H. (2009). Dynamics of assisted home ownership in Singapore dynamics of assisted home ownership in Singapore. Journal of Urban Affairs, 31(2), 197-215.
Hui, E. C. M., & Yiu, C. Y. (2003). Market dynamics of private residential real estate price – an empirical test in Hong Kong. Journal of Financial Management of Property and Construction, 8(3), 155-165.
Iacoviello, Y. M. (2005). House prices, borrowing constraints, and monetary policy in the business cycle. American Economic Review, 95(3), 739-764. <a href= "https://doi.org/10.1257/0002828054201477" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://doi.org/10.1257/0002828054201477</a>
Ito, T., & Iwaisako, T. (1995). Explaining asset bubbles in Japan. Working Paper. International Monetary Fund.
Jin, Y., & Zeng, Z. (2004). Residential investment and house prices in a multi-sector monetary business cycle model. Journal of Housing Economics, 13, 268-286. <a href= "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhe.2004.08.001" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhe.2004.08.001</a>
Joyce, M., Lasaosa, A., Stevens, I., & Tong, M. (2011). The financial market impact of quantitative easing in the United Kingdom. International Journal of Central Banking, 7(3), 113-161.
Kaul, G. (1987). Stock returns and inflation: the role of the monetary sector. Journal of Financial Economics, 18(2), 253-276. <a href= "https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-405X(87)90041-9" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-405X(87)90041-9</a>
Kim, K. H. (1993). Housing prices, affordability, and government policy in Korea. Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 6, 55-71. <a href= "https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01098428" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01098428</a>
La Grange, A., & Pretorius, F. (2000). Ontology, policy and the market: trends to home-ownership in Hong Kong. Urban Studies, 37(9), 1561-1582. <a href= "https://doi.org/10.1080/00420980020080261" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://doi.org/10.1080/00420980020080261</a>
Lastrapes, W. D. (2002). The real price of housing and money supply shocks: time series evidence and theoretical simulations. Journal of Housing Economics, 11(1), 40-74. <a href= "https://doi.org/10.1006/jhec.2002.0309" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://doi.org/10.1006/jhec.2002.0309</a>
Lee, J. K. C. (1996). Homeownership, consumption and social divisions in Hong Kong: a theoretical and empirical note. In S. K. Lau (Ed.), New frontiers of social indicators research in Chinese societies (pp. 235–264). Hong Kong: Chinese University of Hong Kong Press.
Lee, S. H. (2003). The SARS epidemic in Hong Kong. Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health, 57, 652-654. <a href= "https://doi.org/10.1136/jech.57.9.652" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://doi.org/10.1136/jech.57.9.652</a>
Lin, C. C., & Lin, S. J. (1999). An estimation of elasticities of consumption demand and investment demand for owner-occupied housing in Taiwan: a two-period model. Journal of Real Estate Review, 2(1), 110-125.
Ling, D., & Narnjo, A. (1995). An analysis of the linkages between macroeconomic events and commercial real estate returns. Proceeding of the RICS Property Research Conference, The Cutting Edge, Vol. 1, 281-304.
Linneman, P. (1986). An empirical test of the efficiency of the housing market. Journal of Urban Economics, 20, 140-154. <a href= "https://doi.org/10.1016/0094-1190(86)90003-3" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://doi.org/10.1016/0094-1190(86)90003-3</a>
Lum, S. K. (1996). The Singapore private property market – price trends and affordability. Paper presented at the Conference on the Singapore Dream: private property, social expectations and public policy, 6 September 1996. National University of Singapore.
Maclennan, D., Muellbauer, J., & Stephens, M. (1998). Asymmetries in housing and financial market institutions and EMU. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 14(3), 54-80. <a href= "https://doi.org/10.1093/oxrep/14.3.54" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://doi.org/10.1093/oxrep/14.3.54</a>
Malpezzi, S. (1996). Housing prices, externalities, and regulation in U.S. metropolitan areas. Journal of Housing Research, 7(2), 209-241.
Manchester, J. M., & Poterba, J. M. (1989). Second mortgages and household saving. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 19, 325-346. <a href= "https://doi.org/10.1016/0166-0462(89)90009-4" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://doi.org/10.1016/0166-0462(89)90009-4</a>
McCauley, R. N., McGuire, P., & Sushko, V. (2015). Global dollar credit: links to US monetary policy and leverage. Bank for International Settlements Working Papers No. 483. Retrieved from <a href= "http://www.bis.org/publ/work483.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> http://www.bis.org/publ/work483.pdf</a>
Munro, M., & Tu, Y. (1996). The dynamics of UK national and regional house prices. Review of Urban and Regional Development Studies, 8, 186-201. <a href= "https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-940X.1996.tb00117.x" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-940X.1996.tb00117.x</a>
Ong, S. E. (1999). Housing affordability and upward mobility from public to private housing in Singapore. Paper presented to the Workshop on Housing Policy in Emerging Economies. Singapore.
Ong, S. E. (2000). Housing affordability and upward mobility from public to private housing in Singapore. International Real Estate Review, 3(1), 49-64.
Ong, S. E., & Sing, T. F. (2002). Price discovery between private and public housing markets. Urban Studies, 39(1), 57-67. <a href= "https://doi.org/10.1080/00420980220099069" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://doi.org/10.1080/00420980220099069</a>
Pain, N., & Westaway, P. (1997). Modelling structure change in the United Kingdom housing market: a comparison of alternative house price models. Economic Modelling, 14(4), 587-610. <a href= "https://doi.org/10.1016/S0264-9993(97)00007-2" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://doi.org/10.1016/S0264-9993(97)00007-2</a>
Phang, S. Y., & Wong, W. K. (1997). Government policies and private housing prices in Singapore. Urban Studies, 34(11), 1819-1829. <a href= "https://doi.org/10.1080/0042098975268" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://doi.org/10.1080/0042098975268</a>
Pickvance, C. (1994). Housing privatization and housing protest in the transition from state socialism: a comparative study of Budapest and Moscow. International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, 18, 433-450. <a href= "https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2427.1994.tb00277.x" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2427.1994.tb00277.x</a>
Ritakallio, V. M. (2003). The importance of housing costs in cross-national comparisons of welfare (state) outcomes. International Social Security Review, 56, 81-101. <a href= "https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-246X.00159" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-246X.00159</a>
Saunders, P. (1990). A nation of home owners. London: Unwin Hyman.
Schwab, R. (1983). Real and nominal interest rates and the demand for housing. Journal of Urban Economics, 13, 181-195. <a href= "https://doi.org/10.1016/0094-1190(83)90004-9" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://doi.org/10.1016/0094-1190(83)90004-9</a>
Sirmans, G. S., & Sirmans, C. F. (1987). The historical perspective of real estate returns. Journal of Portfolio Management, 13(3), 2-31. <a href= "https://doi.org/10.3905/jpm.1987.409109" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://doi.org/10.3905/jpm.1987.409109</a>
Skinner, J. (1989). Housing wealth and aggregate saving. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 19, 305-324. <a href= "https://doi.org/10.1016/0166-0462(89)90008-2" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://doi.org/10.1016/0166-0462(89)90008-2</a>
Stern, D. (1992). Explaining UK house price inflation 1971–89. Applied Economics, 24, 1327-1333. <a href= "https://doi.org/10.1080/00036849200000093" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://doi.org/10.1080/00036849200000093</a>
Teo, S. E., & Kong, L. (1997). Public housing in Singapore: interpreting “Quality” in the 1990s. Urban Studies, 34(11), 441-452.
Tobin, J. (1969). A general equilibrium approach to monetary theory. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 1(1), 15-29. <a href= "https://doi.org/10.2307/1991374" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://doi.org/10.2307/1991374</a>
Tu, Y. (2000). Segmentation of Australian housing markets: 1989–98. Journal of Property Research, 17(4), 311-327. <a href= "https://doi.org/10.1080/09599910010001420" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://doi.org/10.1080/09599910010001420</a>
Tu, Y. (2002). The impacts of public resold dwellings on the private housing prices: Singapore experiences. Working Paper. Department of Real Estate, National University of Singapore.
Tu, Y., Kwee, L. K., & Yuen, B. K. P. (2002). Modelling Singapore households’ social mobility behaviour: from public homeownership to private homeownership. Working Paper. Department of Real Estate, National University of Singapore.
Whitehead, C. (1974). The UK housing market: an econometric model. London: Saxon House.
Yiu, C. Y. (2009). Negative real interest rate and housing bubble implosion – an empirical study in Hong Kong. Journal of Financial Management of Property and Construction, 14(3), 257-270. <a href= "https://doi.org/10.1108/13664380911000477" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://doi.org/10.1108/13664380911000477</a>
Zerbst, R. H., & Cambon, B. R. (1984). Historical returns on real estate investment. Journal of Portfolio Management, 10, 5-20. <a href= "https://doi.org/10.3905/jpm.1984.408959" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://doi.org/10.3905/jpm.1984.408959</a>
Aoki, K., Proudman, J., & Vlieghe, G. (2004). House prices, consumption, and monetary policy: a financial accelerator approach. Journal of Financial Intermediation, 13(4), 414-435. <a href= "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfi.2004.06.003" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfi.2004.06.003</a>
Arnott, R. (1987). Economic theory and housing. In E. S. Mills (Ed.), Handbook of regional urban economics, Vol. 2 Urban economics (pp. 959-988). New York: Elsevier Science Publishing.
Arrondela, L., & Lefebvreb, B. (2001). Consumption and investment motives in housing wealth accumulation: a French study. Journal of Urban Economics, 50(1), 112-137. <a href= "https://doi.org/10.1006/juec.2000.2209" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://doi.org/10.1006/juec.2000.2209</a>
Bacher, J. (1993). Keeping to the marketplace: the evolution of Canadian housing policy. Montreal: McGill-Queen’s University Press.
Balchin, P. (Ed.). (1996). Housing policy in Europe. London: Routledge. <a href= "https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203436417" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203436417</a>
Ball, M. (1994). The 1980s property boom. Environment and Planning A, 26, 671-695. <a href= "https://doi.org/10.1068/a260671" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://doi.org/10.1068/a260671</a>
Bardhan, A. D., Datta, R., Edelstein, R. H., & Lum, S. K. (2003). A tale of two sectors: upward mobility and the private housing market in Singapore. Journal of Housing Economics, 12(2), 83-105. <a href= "https://doi.org/10.1016/S1051-1377(03)00016-0" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://doi.org/10.1016/S1051-1377(03)00016-0</a>
Bauer, M. D., & Rudebusch, G. D. (2011). The signaling channel for Federal Reserve bond purchases. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper 2011–21.
Beltratti, A., & Morana, C. (2010). International house prices and macroeconomic fluctuations. Journal of Banking and Finance, 34, 533-545. <a href= "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2009.08.020" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2009.08.020</a>
Berkovec, J. (1989). A general equilibrium model of housing consumption and investment. Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 2(3), 157-172. <a href= "https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00152345" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00152345</a>
Bernanke, B. S. (2012). Monetary policy since the onset of the crisis. Speech at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Symposium, 31 August 2012.
Bosworth, B., Burtless, G., & Sabelhaus, J. (1991). The decline in saving: evidence from household surveys. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1, 183-241. <a href= "https://doi.org/10.2307/2534640" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://doi.org/10.2307/2534640</a>
Bourassa, S. C., & Hendershott, P. H. (1995). Australian capital city real housing prices, 1979–1993. Australian Economic Review, 3, 16-26. <a href= "https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8462.1995.tb00990.x" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8462.1995.tb00990.x</a>
Breedon, F., & Joyce, M. A. S. (1992). House prices, arrears, and possessions. Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin (pp. 173-179).
Brueckner, J. K. (1997). Consumption and investment motives and the portfolio choices of homeowners. Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 15(2), 159-180. <a href= "https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1007777532293" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1007777532293</a>
Buckley, R., & Ermisch, J. F. (1982). Theory and empiricism in the econometric modelling of house prices. Urban Studies, 20(1), 83-90. <a href= "https://doi.org/10.1080/713703151" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://doi.org/10.1080/713703151</a>
Case, B., Goetzmann, W., & Rouwenhorst, K. G. (1999). Global real estate markets – cycles and fundamentals. Working Paper, No. 7/99. Yale International Center for Finance.
Case, K. E., & Shiller, R. J. (1989). The efficiency of the market for single family homes. American Economic Review, 79(1), 125-137.
Cassidy, H. J., Dennis, B., & Yang, T. T. (2008). Home appreciation participation notes: a solution to housing affordability and the current mortgage crisis. International Real Estate Review, 11(2), 126-141.
Chen, M. C., Chang, C. O., Yang, C. Y., & Hsieh, B. M. (2012). Investment demand and housing prices in an emerging economy. Journal of Real Estate Research, 34(3), 345-373.
Chen, M. C., & Patel, K. (2002). An empirical analysis of determination of house prices in the Taipei area. Taiwan Economic Review, 30(4), 563-595. <a href= "https://doi.org/10.6277/ter.2002.304.5" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://doi.org/10.6277/ter.2002.304.5</a>
Chen, M. C., Tsai, I. C., & Chang, C. O. (2007). House prices and household income: do they move apart? Evidence from Taiwan. Habitat International, 31, 243-256. <a href= "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.habitatint.2007.02.005" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://doi.org/10.1016/j.habitatint.2007.02.005</a>
Ching, L. K., & Tyabji, A. (1991). Homeownership policy in Singapore: an assessment. Housing Studies, 6(1), 15-28. <a href= "https://doi.org/10.1080/02673039108720694" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://doi.org/10.1080/02673039108720694</a>
Corsetti, G., Pesenti, P., & Roubini, N. (1999). What caused the Asian currency and financial crisis? Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Retrieved from <a href= "https://www.newyorkfed.org/me-dialibrary/media/research/economists/pesenti/whatjapwor.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://www.newyorkfed.org/me-dialibrary/media/research/economists/pesenti/whatjapwor.pdf</a>
Darrat, A. F., & Glascock, J. L. (1989). Real estate returns, money and fiscal deficits: is the real estate market efficient?. Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 2, 197-208. <a href= "https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00152348" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00152348</a>
Drake, L. (1993). Modelling UK house prices using cointegration: an application of the Johansen technique. Applied Economics, 25, 1225-1228. <a href= "https://doi.org/10.1080/00036849300000183" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://doi.org/10.1080/00036849300000183</a>
Elbourne, A. (2008). The U.K. housing market and the monetary policy transmission mechanism: an SVAR approach. Journal of Housing Economics, 17, 65-87. <a href= "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhe.2007.09.002" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhe.2007.09.002</a>
Fama, E. F. (1990). Stock returns, expected returns, and real activity. Journal of Finance, 45(4), 1089-1108. <a href= "https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1990.tb02428.x" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1990.tb02428.x</a>
Forrest, R., & Murie, A. (1988). Selling the welfare state, the privatization of public housing. London: Routledge.
Forrest, R., Murie, A., & Williams, P. (1990). Homeownership: differentiation and fragmentation. London: Unwin Hyman.
Gagnon, J., Raskin, M., Remache, J., & Sack, B. (2011). Large-scale asset purchases by the Federal Reserve: did they work?. Economic Policy Review, 17(1), 41-59.
Garfinkel, M. R., & Thornton, D. L. (1989). The link between M1 and monetary base in the 1980s. Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis. Retrieved from <a href= "https://research.stlouisfed.org/publica-tions/review/89/09/Link_Sep_Oct1989.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://research.stlouisfed.org/publica-tions/review/89/09/Link_Sep_Oct1989.pdf</a>
Geske, R.; Roll, R. (1983). The fiscal and monetary linkage between stock returns and inflation. Journal of Finance, 28(1), 7-33. <a href= "https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1983.tb03623.x" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1983.tb03623.x</a>
Gibson, W. E. (1972). Interest rates and inflationary expectations: new evidence. American Economic Review, 62(5), 854-865.
Goodhart, C., & Hofmann, B. (2008). House prices, money, credit, and the macroeconomy. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 24(1), 180-205. <a href= "https://doi.org/10.1093/oxrep/grn009" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://doi.org/10.1093/oxrep/grn009</a>
Hamilton, J. D., & Wu, J. C. (2012). The effectiveness of alternative monetary policy tools in a zero lower bound environment. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 44(1), 3-46.
Hays, R. (1994). Housing privatization: social goals and policy strategies. Journal of Urban Affairs, 16(4), 295-317. <a href= "https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9906.1994.tb00332.x" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9906.1994.tb00332.x</a>
Henderson, J. V., & Ioannides, Y. M. (1983). A model of housing tenure choice. American Economic Review, 73(1), 98-113.
Henderson, J. V., & Ioannides, Y. M. (1987). Ownership occupancy: investment vs consumption demand. Journal of Urban Economics, 21, 228-241. <a href= "https://doi.org/10.1016/0094-1190(87)90016-7" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://doi.org/10.1016/0094-1190(87)90016-7</a>
Hoesli, M., Lizieri, C., & MacGregor, B. (2008). The inflation hedging characteristics of U.S. and U.K. investments: a multi-factor error correction approach. Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 36, 183-206. <a href= "https://doi.org/10.1007/s11146-007-9062-6" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://doi.org/10.1007/s11146-007-9062-6</a>
Hui, C. M., Yu, K. H., & Ho, K. H. (2009). Dynamics of assisted home ownership in Singapore dynamics of assisted home ownership in Singapore. Journal of Urban Affairs, 31(2), 197-215.
Hui, E. C. M., & Yiu, C. Y. (2003). Market dynamics of private residential real estate price – an empirical test in Hong Kong. Journal of Financial Management of Property and Construction, 8(3), 155-165.
Iacoviello, Y. M. (2005). House prices, borrowing constraints, and monetary policy in the business cycle. American Economic Review, 95(3), 739-764. <a href= "https://doi.org/10.1257/0002828054201477" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://doi.org/10.1257/0002828054201477</a>
Ito, T., & Iwaisako, T. (1995). Explaining asset bubbles in Japan. Working Paper. International Monetary Fund.
Jin, Y., & Zeng, Z. (2004). Residential investment and house prices in a multi-sector monetary business cycle model. Journal of Housing Economics, 13, 268-286. <a href= "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhe.2004.08.001" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhe.2004.08.001</a>
Joyce, M., Lasaosa, A., Stevens, I., & Tong, M. (2011). The financial market impact of quantitative easing in the United Kingdom. International Journal of Central Banking, 7(3), 113-161.
Kaul, G. (1987). Stock returns and inflation: the role of the monetary sector. Journal of Financial Economics, 18(2), 253-276. <a href= "https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-405X(87)90041-9" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-405X(87)90041-9</a>
Kim, K. H. (1993). Housing prices, affordability, and government policy in Korea. Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 6, 55-71. <a href= "https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01098428" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01098428</a>
La Grange, A., & Pretorius, F. (2000). Ontology, policy and the market: trends to home-ownership in Hong Kong. Urban Studies, 37(9), 1561-1582. <a href= "https://doi.org/10.1080/00420980020080261" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://doi.org/10.1080/00420980020080261</a>
Lastrapes, W. D. (2002). The real price of housing and money supply shocks: time series evidence and theoretical simulations. Journal of Housing Economics, 11(1), 40-74. <a href= "https://doi.org/10.1006/jhec.2002.0309" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://doi.org/10.1006/jhec.2002.0309</a>
Lee, J. K. C. (1996). Homeownership, consumption and social divisions in Hong Kong: a theoretical and empirical note. In S. K. Lau (Ed.), New frontiers of social indicators research in Chinese societies (pp. 235–264). Hong Kong: Chinese University of Hong Kong Press.
Lee, S. H. (2003). The SARS epidemic in Hong Kong. Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health, 57, 652-654. <a href= "https://doi.org/10.1136/jech.57.9.652" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://doi.org/10.1136/jech.57.9.652</a>
Lin, C. C., & Lin, S. J. (1999). An estimation of elasticities of consumption demand and investment demand for owner-occupied housing in Taiwan: a two-period model. Journal of Real Estate Review, 2(1), 110-125.
Ling, D., & Narnjo, A. (1995). An analysis of the linkages between macroeconomic events and commercial real estate returns. Proceeding of the RICS Property Research Conference, The Cutting Edge, Vol. 1, 281-304.
Linneman, P. (1986). An empirical test of the efficiency of the housing market. Journal of Urban Economics, 20, 140-154. <a href= "https://doi.org/10.1016/0094-1190(86)90003-3" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://doi.org/10.1016/0094-1190(86)90003-3</a>
Lum, S. K. (1996). The Singapore private property market – price trends and affordability. Paper presented at the Conference on the Singapore Dream: private property, social expectations and public policy, 6 September 1996. National University of Singapore.
Maclennan, D., Muellbauer, J., & Stephens, M. (1998). Asymmetries in housing and financial market institutions and EMU. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 14(3), 54-80. <a href= "https://doi.org/10.1093/oxrep/14.3.54" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://doi.org/10.1093/oxrep/14.3.54</a>
Malpezzi, S. (1996). Housing prices, externalities, and regulation in U.S. metropolitan areas. Journal of Housing Research, 7(2), 209-241.
Manchester, J. M., & Poterba, J. M. (1989). Second mortgages and household saving. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 19, 325-346. <a href= "https://doi.org/10.1016/0166-0462(89)90009-4" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://doi.org/10.1016/0166-0462(89)90009-4</a>
McCauley, R. N., McGuire, P., & Sushko, V. (2015). Global dollar credit: links to US monetary policy and leverage. Bank for International Settlements Working Papers No. 483. Retrieved from <a href= "http://www.bis.org/publ/work483.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> http://www.bis.org/publ/work483.pdf</a>
Munro, M., & Tu, Y. (1996). The dynamics of UK national and regional house prices. Review of Urban and Regional Development Studies, 8, 186-201. <a href= "https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-940X.1996.tb00117.x" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-940X.1996.tb00117.x</a>
Ong, S. E. (1999). Housing affordability and upward mobility from public to private housing in Singapore. Paper presented to the Workshop on Housing Policy in Emerging Economies. Singapore.
Ong, S. E. (2000). Housing affordability and upward mobility from public to private housing in Singapore. International Real Estate Review, 3(1), 49-64.
Ong, S. E., & Sing, T. F. (2002). Price discovery between private and public housing markets. Urban Studies, 39(1), 57-67. <a href= "https://doi.org/10.1080/00420980220099069" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://doi.org/10.1080/00420980220099069</a>
Pain, N., & Westaway, P. (1997). Modelling structure change in the United Kingdom housing market: a comparison of alternative house price models. Economic Modelling, 14(4), 587-610. <a href= "https://doi.org/10.1016/S0264-9993(97)00007-2" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://doi.org/10.1016/S0264-9993(97)00007-2</a>
Phang, S. Y., & Wong, W. K. (1997). Government policies and private housing prices in Singapore. Urban Studies, 34(11), 1819-1829. <a href= "https://doi.org/10.1080/0042098975268" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://doi.org/10.1080/0042098975268</a>
Pickvance, C. (1994). Housing privatization and housing protest in the transition from state socialism: a comparative study of Budapest and Moscow. International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, 18, 433-450. <a href= "https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2427.1994.tb00277.x" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2427.1994.tb00277.x</a>
Ritakallio, V. M. (2003). The importance of housing costs in cross-national comparisons of welfare (state) outcomes. International Social Security Review, 56, 81-101. <a href= "https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-246X.00159" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-246X.00159</a>
Saunders, P. (1990). A nation of home owners. London: Unwin Hyman.
Schwab, R. (1983). Real and nominal interest rates and the demand for housing. Journal of Urban Economics, 13, 181-195. <a href= "https://doi.org/10.1016/0094-1190(83)90004-9" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://doi.org/10.1016/0094-1190(83)90004-9</a>
Sirmans, G. S., & Sirmans, C. F. (1987). The historical perspective of real estate returns. Journal of Portfolio Management, 13(3), 2-31. <a href= "https://doi.org/10.3905/jpm.1987.409109" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://doi.org/10.3905/jpm.1987.409109</a>
Skinner, J. (1989). Housing wealth and aggregate saving. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 19, 305-324. <a href= "https://doi.org/10.1016/0166-0462(89)90008-2" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://doi.org/10.1016/0166-0462(89)90008-2</a>
Stern, D. (1992). Explaining UK house price inflation 1971–89. Applied Economics, 24, 1327-1333. <a href= "https://doi.org/10.1080/00036849200000093" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://doi.org/10.1080/00036849200000093</a>
Teo, S. E., & Kong, L. (1997). Public housing in Singapore: interpreting “Quality” in the 1990s. Urban Studies, 34(11), 441-452.
Tobin, J. (1969). A general equilibrium approach to monetary theory. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 1(1), 15-29. <a href= "https://doi.org/10.2307/1991374" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://doi.org/10.2307/1991374</a>
Tu, Y. (2000). Segmentation of Australian housing markets: 1989–98. Journal of Property Research, 17(4), 311-327. <a href= "https://doi.org/10.1080/09599910010001420" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://doi.org/10.1080/09599910010001420</a>
Tu, Y. (2002). The impacts of public resold dwellings on the private housing prices: Singapore experiences. Working Paper. Department of Real Estate, National University of Singapore.
Tu, Y., Kwee, L. K., & Yuen, B. K. P. (2002). Modelling Singapore households’ social mobility behaviour: from public homeownership to private homeownership. Working Paper. Department of Real Estate, National University of Singapore.
Whitehead, C. (1974). The UK housing market: an econometric model. London: Saxon House.
Yiu, C. Y. (2009). Negative real interest rate and housing bubble implosion – an empirical study in Hong Kong. Journal of Financial Management of Property and Construction, 14(3), 257-270. <a href= "https://doi.org/10.1108/13664380911000477" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://doi.org/10.1108/13664380911000477</a>
Zerbst, R. H., & Cambon, B. R. (1984). Historical returns on real estate investment. Journal of Portfolio Management, 10, 5-20. <a href= "https://doi.org/10.3905/jpm.1984.408959" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://doi.org/10.3905/jpm.1984.408959</a>
View article in other formats
Additional Files
CrossMark check
Published
2018-03-23
Issue
Section
Articles
Copyright
Copyright (c) 2018 The Author(s). Published by Vilnius Gediminas Technical University.
License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
How to Cite
Yu, K. H., & Hui, E. C. M. (2018). Housing market dynamics under a pegged exchange rate – a study of Hong Kong. International Journal of Strategic Property Management, 22(2), 93-109. https://doi.org/10.3846/ijspm.2018.441