Locale-varying relationships between tourism development and retail property prices in a shopping destination
Abstract
Existing literature has inadequately examined the nexus between tourism and property prices. Additionally, it mainly focuses on hotels and housing, thereby overlooking other property categories (e.g., retail properties). The relationship between tourism development and retail property prices in shopping destinations (e.g., Hong Kong and Singapore) may hinge on the locale. More specifically, the relationship may be different in the tourist precinct or popular tourism shopping area (PTSA) and the unpopular tourism shopping area (UTSA). This study examines locale-varying relationships between tourism development (measured by tourist volume and tourism expenditure) and retail property prices from 2002Q1 to 2014Q4 in Hong Kong using standard and error-correction-model-based (ECM-based) Granger causality tests. Results of standard Granger causality tests indicate that tourism development Granger causes the increase in retail property prices in the PTSA but not in the UTSA. Moreover, results of ECM-based Granger causality tests further verify the robustness and plausibility of the tourism-led growth (in retail property prices) hypothesis in the PTSA. In other words, we find that tourism development measures can be used to better predict changes in retail property prices in the PTSA than simply referring to the price history.
Keyword : tourism development, retail property price, tourism shopping, tourist shopper, Granger causality test, Hong Kong
How to Cite
Yang, L., Chau, K. W., Lu, Y., Cui, X., Meng, F., & Wang, X. (2020). Locale-varying relationships between tourism development and retail property prices in a shopping destination. International Journal of Strategic Property Management, 24(5), 323-334. https://doi.org/10.3846/ijspm.2020.13343
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
References
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https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-2288-0_36
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Bourassa, S. C., Hoesli, M., & Sun, J. (2006). A simple alternative house price index method. Journal of Housing Economics, 15(1), 80−97. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhe.2006.03.001
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Chau, K. W., Wong, S. K., Liang, J., McCluskey, W., & Cunningham, C. (2018). Transaction-based indices. In B. D. MacGregor, R. Schulz, & R. K. Green (Eds.), Routledge companion to real estate investment. Routledge. https://doi.org/10.1201/9781315775579-10
Chau, K. W., Leung, A. Y. T., Yiu, C. Y., & Wong, S. K. (2003). Estimating the value enhancement effects of refurbishment. Facilities, 21(1/2), 13−19. https://doi.org/10.1108/02632770310460504
Chau, K. W., Wong, S. K., & Yiu, C. Y. (2004). The value of the provision of a balcony in apartments in Hong Kong. Property Management, 22(3), 250−264.
https://doi.org/10.1108/02637470410545020
Chau, K. W., Wong, S. K., Yiu, C. Y., & Leung, H. F. (2005a). Real estate price indices in Hong Kong. Journal of Real Estate Literature, 13(3), 337−356.
Chau, K. W., Wong, S. K., & Yiu, C. Y. (2005b). Adjusting for non-linear age effects in the repeat sales index. The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 31(2), 137−153.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11146-005-1369-6
Chen, C. F., & Rothschild, R. (2010). An application of hedonic pricing analysis to the case of hotel rooms in Taipei. Tourism Economics, 16(3), 685−694. https://doi.org/10.5367/000000010792278310
Choi, M., Law, R., & Heo, C. Y. (2016). Shopping destinations and trust–tourist attitudes: scale development and validation. Tourism Management, 54, 490−501.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2016.01.005
Cocola-Gant, A. (2018). Tourism gentrification. In L. Lees, & M. Phillips (Eds.), Handbook of gentrification studies. Edward Elgar Publishing. https://doi.org/10.4337/9781785361746.00028
Engle, R. F., & Granger, C. W. (1987). Co-integration and error correction: representation, estimation, and testing. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 55(2), 251−276. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913236
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Fereidouni, H. G. (2013). Determinants of foreign investments in residential properties: evidence from Malaysian states. International Journal of Strategic Property Management, 17(3), 317−322. https://doi.org/10.3846/1648715X.2013.822436
Gant, A. C. (2015). Tourism and commercial gentrification. In Proceedings of the RC21 International Conference on “The Ideal City: Between Myth and Reality, Representations, Policies, Contradictions and Challenges for Tomorrow’s Urban Life”, Urbino, Italy (pp. 27−29).
Geltner, D., & Pollakowski, H. (2007). A set of indexes for trading commercial real estate based on the real capital analytics transaction prices database. MIT Center for Real Estate.
Goetzmann, W. N. (1992). The accuracy of real estate indices: repeat sale estimators. The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 5(1), 5−53. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00153997
Granger, C. W. J. (1969). Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 37(3), 424−438.
https://doi.org/10.2307/1912791
Gu, X., Li, G., Chang, X., & Guo, H. (2017). Casino tourism, economic inequality, and housing bubbles. Tourism Management, 62, 253−263. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2017.04.006
Guo, X., Zheng, S., Geltner, D., & Liu, H. (2014). A new approach for constructing home price indices: the pseudo repeat sales model and its application in China. Journal of Housing Economics, 25, 20−38. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhe.2014.01.005
Gupta, P., & Singh, A. (2016). Causal nexus between foreign direct investment and economic growth: a study of BRICS nations using VECM and Granger causality test. Journal of Advances in Management Research, 13(2), 179−202. https://doi.org/10.1108/JAMR-04-2015-0028
Hong Kong Tourism Board (various issues). (n.d.). A statistical review of Hong Kong tourism.
Hui, E. C. M., Zhong, J. W., & Yu, K. H. (2012). The impact of landscape views and storey levels on property prices. Landscape and Urban Planning, 105(1−2), 86−93.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2011.12.002
Jiang, B., Liang, S., & Yuan, W. (2015a). Observational evidence for impacts of vegetation change on local surface climate over northern China using the Granger causality test. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 120(1), 1−12. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JG002741
Jiang, L., Phillips, P. C., & Yu, J. (2015b). New methodology for constructing real estate price indices applied to the Singapore residential market. Journal of Banking & Finance, 61, S121− S131. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2015.08.026
Kattiyapornpong, U., & Miller, K. E. (2012). Propensity to shop: identifying who shops til they drop. Journal of Travel & Tourism Marketing, 29(6), 552−565. https://doi.org/10.1080/10548408.2012.703027
Kavetsos, G. (2012). The impact of the London Olympics announcement on property prices. Urban Studies, 49(7), 1453−1470. https://doi.org/10.1177/0042098011415436
Kemperman, A. D., Borgers, A. W., & Timmermans, H. J. (2009). Tourist shopping behavior in a historic downtown area. Tourism Management, 30(2), 208−218. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2008.06.002
Kim, H. J., & Chen, M. H. (2006). Tourism expansion and economic development: the case of Taiwan. Tourism Management, 27(5), 925−933. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2005.05.011
Kontokosta, C. (2012). The price of victory: the impact of the Olympic Games on residential real estate markets. Urban Studies, 49(5), 961−978. https://doi.org/10.1177/0042098011411952
Law, R., & Au, N. (2000). Relationship modeling in tourism shopping: a decision rules induction approach. Tourism Management, 21(3), 241−249. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0261-5177(99)00056-4
Lee, S. K., & Jang, S. (2012). Premium or discount in hotel room rates? The dual effects of a central downtown location. Cornell Hospitality Quarterly, 53(2), 165−173. https://doi.org/10.1177/1938965512441056
Li, Y., Yang, L., Shen, H., & Wu, Z. (2019). Modeling intra-destination travel behavior of tourists through spatio-temporal analysis. Journal of Destination Marketing & Management, 11, 260−269. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdmm.2018.05.002
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