Share:


Analysis of Turkish residential construction market dynamics for the periods of 2010–2015, 2015–2019, and projections for the future

    Mehmet Emre Çamlibel   Affiliation
    ; Natalija Lepkova   Affiliation
    ; Çağdaş Aygün Affiliation

Abstract

The Turkish residential market supported by macro-economic developments is of great importance for the country's economy and the construction industry. The main purpose of this study is to analyze the Turkish residential construction market dynamics, especially in terms of price-cost and supply-demand regimes and conduct future projections.


For this purpose, analysis of construction cost and residential price indexes, total and mortgaged residential sales, and construction and occupancy permits were evaluated utilizing institutional data. In addition, positive and negative effects of the changes in the residential prices in the macro scale were examined. After, conducting the residential price and cost change analysis for between 2010-2023, future stock volume and residential market projections were carried out.


As a result of the analysis, we can divide the residential market into 3 periods: positive development period between 2010 and 2015, the recession period from 2015 to 2019, and the period after 2020. In the projection, depending on the supply contraction and the results of demand changes, price and cost increases, the current residential stock volume will reach its lowest level by 2023. Following this, the last period is expected to reach a more balanced residential market shaped by need-based purchases rather than individual investments.

Keyword : residential market, construction, construction cost index, price index, residential price bubble

How to Cite
Çamlibel, M. E., Lepkova, N., & Aygün, Çağdaş. (2020). Analysis of Turkish residential construction market dynamics for the periods of 2010–2015, 2015–2019, and projections for the future. Engineering Structures and Technologies, 12(1), 1-7. https://doi.org/10.3846/est.2020.13397
Published in Issue
Sep 7, 2020
Abstract Views
638
PDF Downloads
396
Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

References

Caraiani, P., Luiky, M. A., & Wesselbaumz, D. (2020). Credit policy and asset price bubbles. Journal of Macroeconomics, 103229. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2020.103229

Cao, M. T., Cheng, M. Y., & Wu, Y. W. (2015). Hybrid computational model for forecasting Taiwan construction cost index. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 141(4), 04014089. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0000948

CBRT. (2017). Konut Fiyat Endeksi.

CBRT. (2020a). Exchange Rates. https://evds2.tcmb.gov.tr/index.php?/evds/serieMarket

CBRT. (2020b). Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) (2017= 100)(Monthly). https://evds2.tcmb.gov.tr/index.php?/evds/serieMarket

CBRT. (2020c). Residential Property Price Index for New Dwellings (NRPPI) (2017=100). https://evds2.tcmb.gov.tr/index.php?/evds/serieMarket

Cagli, E. C. (2019). Explosive behavior in the real estate market of Turkey. Borsa Istanbul Review, 19(3), 258–263. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bir.2018.10.002

Knight Frank. (2019). Global House Price Index. https://content.knightfrank.com/research/84/documents/en/global-houseprice-index-q3-2019-6859.pdf

Elfahham, Y. (2019). Estimation and prediction of construction cost index using neural networks, time series, and regression. Alexandria Engineering Journal, 58(2), 499–506. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aej.2019.05.002

GYODER. (2020). GYODER Indicator, Turkish Real Estate Sector 2020 1st Quarter Report.

Kapliński, O. (2018). Innovative solutions in construction industry. Review of 2016–2018 events and trends. Engineering Structures and Technologies, 10(1), 27–33. https://doi.org/10.3846/est.2018.1469

Kılınç, M., & Tunç, C. (2014). Identification of monetary policy shocks in Turkey: A structural VAR approach (TCMB Working Paper 14/23). Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankasi.

Lepkova, N., Vilutienė, T., Bełej, M., Putek-Szeląg, E., & Źróbek, S. (2017). Comparative analysis of newly-built housing quality in Poland and Lithuania. Real Estate Management and Valuation, 25(4), 85–98. https://doi.org/10.1515/remav-2017-0032

Liu, J. E., Liu, H., Guo, W., & Guo, Z. (2014). The establishment of Yanjiao’s Real Estate Price Index. In ICCREM 2014: Smart Construction and Management in the Context of New Technology (pp. 1089–1096). ASCE. https://doi.org/10.1061/9780784413777.129

Manzhynski, S., Źróbek, S., Batura, O., & Zysk, E. (2018). Why the market value of residential premises and the costs of its purchase differ: The examples of Belarus and Poland. Land Use Policy, 71, 530–539. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2017.11.012

Milunovich, G. (2020). Mapping out network connections between residential property markets. Economics Letters, 189, 109006. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2020.109006

Ministry of Treasury and Finance. (2019). New Economy Program. https://ms.hmb.gov.tr/uploads/sites/2/2019/04/New-Economy-Program-2019-2021.pdf

REIDIN. (2020). REIDIN-GYODER New Home Price Index: April 2020 Results.

Saraç, H. (2018). Konut Fiyat Endeksi Verilerinin Klasik Ayriştirma Ve Arima Yöntemi İle Tahmin Edilmesi [Forecasting housing price index data by classical decomposition and arima method]. Journal of International Social Research, 11(59), 1307–9581 (in Turkish). https://doi.org/10.17719/jisr.2018.2717

TurkStat. (2020a). Completed or partially completed new buildings and additions by use of building, (new classification) (according to new classification and method) Since 2009. http://www.turkstat.gov.tr/PreTablo.do?alt_id=1056

TurkStat. (2020b). Construction cost index (2015=100) and rate of change. http://www.turkstat.gov.tr/PreTablo.do?alt_id=1077

TurkStat. (2020c). House sales by districts and years. http://www.turkstat.gov.tr/PreTablo.do?alt_id=1056

TurkStat. (2020d). Mortgaged house sales in detail of first sale and second hand sale by provinces and years. http://www.turkstat.gov.tr/PreTablo.do?alt_id=1056

TurkStat. (2020e). New buildings and additions by use of building, since 2002. http://www.turkstat.gov.tr/PreTablo.do?alt_id=1056