Share:


A dynamic model of profit of residential projects in Vietnam

    Nghia Hoai Nguyen Affiliation
    ; Thanwadee Chinda Affiliation

Abstract

It is difficult to estimate the profit of residential projects as there are a number of complicated relationships among key profit factors. This study develops a dynamic model of the profit of residential projects in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, utilizing a system dynamic approach, to examine the profit of residential projects in the long term. Five key profit factors, including the Urban Population, Buyer Capacity, Housing Supply, Housing Economics, and Housing Finance factors, are used to develop the dynamic model. Simulation results reveal that the average profit of residential projects in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, in the next 20 years, is 35%, with a minimum and maximum profit of 19% and 41%, respectively. Scenario analyses recommend that a 30% down payment, a 25-year payment period, and a debt to equity ratio of 40% are the best strategies that residential companies should use to maximize profit in the long term. It is also recommended that debt to equity ratio and house price should be maintained in the early years to assist low-income households. The developed model can be used as a starting point to develop a software that allows developers to examine strategies by simply inputting their available data.

Keyword : dynamic model, profit, residential projects, simulation, system dynamics

How to Cite
Nguyen, N. H., & Chinda, T. (2018). A dynamic model of profit of residential projects in Vietnam. International Journal of Strategic Property Management, 22(6), 489-500. https://doi.org/10.3846/ijspm.2018.6274
Published in Issue
Nov 12, 2018
Abstract Views
1698
PDF Downloads
771
Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

References

Amini, Y., Kasmaei, S. J., Sharifan, G., Eslamifar, G., & Aghdaei, A. (2013, 21–25 July). A system dynamics approach to clarify the impacts of state loans on real estate market in Iran. Proceedings of the 31st International Conference of the System Dynamics Society. Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA.

Barlas, Y., Ozgun, O., & Ozbas, B. (2007, 29 July–2 August). Modeling of real estate price oscillations in Istanbul. Proceedings of the 25th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society. Sloan School of Management, MIT, Boston, USA, 2007.

Beeghley, L. (2004). Structure of social stratification in the United States (4th ed.). Boston: Allyn & Bacon.

Borowiecki, K. J. (2009). The determinants of house prices and construction: an empirical investigation of the Swiss housing economy. International Real Estate Review, 12(3), 193-220.

Capelo, C., & Dias, J. F. (2009). A system dynamics-based simulation experiment for testing mental model and performance effects of using the balanced scorecard. System Dynamics Review, 25(1), 1-34. https://doi.org/10.1002/sdr.413

Chandler, D., & Disney, R. (2014). The housing market in the United Kingdom: effects of house price volatility on households. Fiscal Studies, 35(3), 371-394. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-5890.2014.12034.x

Chiang, Y. H., Chan, P. C. A., & Hui, E. C. M. (2002). Capital structure and profitability of the property and construction sectors in Hong Kong. Journal of Property Investment and Finance, 20(6), 434-453. https://doi.org/10.1108/14635780210446469

Choi, J., & Russell, J. S. (2005). Long-term entropy and profitability change of United States public construction firms. Journal of Management in Engineering, 21(1), 17-26. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0742-597X(2005)21:1(17)

Clark, T. D., & Jones, M. C. (2008). An experimental analysis of the dynamic structure and behavior of managerial support systems. System Dynamics Review, 24(2), 215-245. https://doi.org/10.1002/sdr.401

David, W. (2015). An inside view on real estate profit margins. Property Management Insider. Retrieved from http://www.propertymanagementinsider.com/an-inside-view-on-real-estate-profit-margins

Doan, D. T., & Chinda, T. (2016). Modeling construction and demolition waste recycling program in Bangkok: benefit and cost analysis. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 142(12). https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0001188

Fisher, J., Ling, D. C., & Naranjo, A. (2009). Institutional capital flows and return dynamics in private commercial real estate markets. Real Estate Economics, 37(1), 85-116. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6229.2009.00236.x

Gerlach, S., & Peng, W. (2005). Bank lending and property prices in Hong Kong. Journal of Banking and Finance, 29, 461-481. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2004.05.015

Gilbert, D. (2002). The American class structure in an age of growing inequality (6th ed.). California: Wadsworth Publishing.

Gimpelevich, D. (2011). Simulation-based excess return model for real estate development: a practical Monte Carlo simulation-based method for quantitative risk management and project valuation for real estate development projects illustrated with a high-rise office development case study. Journal of Property Investment and Finance, 29(2), 115-144. https://doi.org/10.1108/14635781111112765

Goodman, A. C., & Thibodeau, T. G. (1995). Age-related heteroskedasticity in hedonic house price equations. Journal of Housing Research, 6(1), 25-42.

General Statistics Office of Vietnam. (2015a). Niên giám thống kê [Statistical Yearbook of Vietnam]. GSO, Hanoi. Retrieved from http://gso.gov.vn/default.aspx?tabid=512&idmid=5&ItemID=16051 (In Vietnamese)

General Statistics Office of Vietnam. (2015b). Kết quả khảo sát mức sống dân cư Việt Nam năm 2012 [Result of the Vietnam household living standards survey 2012]. GSO, Hanoi. Retrieved from http://gso.gov.vn/default.aspx?tabid=512&idmid=5&ItemID=13970 (In Vietnamese)

Ho, Y. F., Wang, H. L., & Liu, C. C. (2010, 25–29 July). Dynamics model of housing market surveillance system for Taichung City. Proceedings of the 28th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society. Seoul, Korean.

Hou, W., Liu, X., & Chen, D. (2011). Payment problems, cash flow and profitability of construction project: a system dynamics model. World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology, 58, 693-699.

Huang, F., & Wang, F. (2005). A system for early-warning and forecasting of real estate development. Automation in Construction, 14, 333-342. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.autcon.2004.08.015

Hwang, M., & Quigley, J. M. (2006). Economic fundamentals in local housing markets: evidence from U. S. metropolitan regions. Journal of Regional Science, 46(3), 425-453. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9787.2006.00480.x

Hwang, S., Park, M., & Lee, H. (2013a). Dynamic analysis of the effects of mortgage-lending policies in a real estate market. Mathematical and Computer Modelling, 57, 2106-2120. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mcm.2011.06.023

Hwang, S., Park, M., Lee, H., Lee, S., & Kim, H. (2013b). Dynamic feasibility analysis of the housing supply strategies in a recession: Korean housing market. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 139(2), 148-160. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0000577

Kang, Y., & Bai, Y. (2014). Research on capital structure and profitability of real estate listed companies in the post financial crisis era. Proceeding of the 2014 International Conference on Construction and Real Estate Management (pp. 989-994). American Society of Civil Engineers, Kunming, China. https://doi.org/10.1061/9780784413777.116

Kim, E., & Yang, W. (2006). Profitability of office rental market in Seoul: an application of simultaneous structural equations. Real Estate Economics, 34(1), 157-171. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6229.2006.00163.x

Kwoun, M., Lee, S., Kim, J., & Kim, J. (2013). Dynamic cycles of unsold new housing stocks, investment in housing, and housing supply-demand. Mathematical and Computer Modelling, 57, 2094-2105. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mcm.2011.08.005

Le, V. (2015). Nhà già rẻ Sài Gòn vẫn hấp dẫn trong 5 năm tới [Saigon cheap houses are still attractive within the next 5 years]. Vnexpress. Retrieved from http://kinhdoanh.vnex-press.net/tin-tuc/bat-dong-san/nha-gia-re-sai-gon-van-hap-dan-trong-5-nam-toi-3220548.html (In Vietnamese)

Ling, D. C., & Naranjo, A. (2003). The dynamics of REIT capital flows and returns. Real Estate Economics, 31(3), 405-434. https://doi.org/10.1111/1540-6229.00071

Liow, K. H. (2010). Firm value, growth, profitability, and capital structure of listed real estate companies: an international perspective. Journal of Property Research, 27(2), 119-146. https://doi.org/10.1080/09599916.2010.500459

Liu, S., & Wang, C. (2008). Resource-constrained construction project scheduling model for profit maximization considering cash flow. Automation in Construction, 17, 966-974. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.autcon.2008.04.006

Mahmood, W. M. W., & Zakaria, R. (2007). Profitability and capital structure of the property and construction sectors in Malaysia. Pacific Rim Property Research Journal, 13(1), 92-105. https://doi.org/10.1080/14445921.2007.11104224

Ministry of Justice of Vietnam. (2010). Nghị định 71/2010/ND-CP [Decree 71/2010/ND-CP]. MOJ, Hanoi. Retrieved from http://moj.gov.vn/vbpq/lists/vn%20bn%20php%20lut/view_detail.aspx?itemid=25426 (In Vietnamese)

Ministry of Construction of Vietnam. (2008). Thông tư 14/2008/TT-BXD [Circulation 14/2008/TT-BXD]. MOC, Hanoi. Retrieved from http://vanban.chinhphu.vn/portal/ page/portal/chinhphu/hethongvanban?class_id=1&mode= detail&document_id=67938 (In Vietnamese)

Ministry of Construction of Vietnam. (2016). Suất vốn đấu tư xây dựng công trình [Investment unit cost]. MOC, Hanoi. Retrieved from http://www.xaydung.gov.vn/c/document_li-brary/get_file?p_l_id=10499&folderId=29703&name=47403 (In Vietnamese)

Morri, G., & Cristanziani, F. (2009). What determines the capital structure of real estate companies?: An analysis of the EPRA/NA-REIT Europe index. Journal of Property Investment and Finance. 27(4), 318-372. https://doi.org/10.1108/14635780910972288

Ngoc, L.T. (2014). Residential real estate bubbles in Ho Chi Minh City (PhD thesis). The Ho Chi Minh City Banking Univer-sity, Vietnam. Retrieved from http://buh.edu.vn/nguoi-hoc/sau-dai-hoc/luan-van-luan-an.html (in Vietnamese)

Nguyen, N. H., & Chinda, T. (2018). Interrelationships among key profit factors of Vietnamese residential projects using structural equation modelling. Songklanakarin. Journal of Science and Technology, 40(2), 474-481.

Nhien, A. (2016). Lãi suất vay thế chấp của ngân hàng nào đang thấp nhất [Which banks have the lowest mortgage interest rates?]. Life and Law newspaper, Vietnam. Retrieved from http://www.doisongphapluat.com/kinh-doanh/bat-dong-san/lai-suat-vay-the-chap-cua-ngan-hang-nao-dang-thap-nhat-a89294.html (In Vietnamese)

Park, M., Lee, M., Lee, H., & Hwang, S. (2010). Boost, control, or both of Korean housing market: 831 countermeasures. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 136(6), 693-701. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0000159

Park, M., Kim, Y., Lee, H., Han, S., & Hwang, S. (2013). Modeling the dynamics of urban development project: focusing on self-sufficient city development. Journal of Mathematical and Computing Modelling, 57, 2082-2093. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mcm.2011.05.058

Rehring, C., & Sebastian, S. (2011). Dynamics of commercial real estate asset markets, return volatility and the investment horizon. Journal of Property Research, 28(4), 291-315. https://doi.org/10.1080/09599916.2011.596943

Saeed, K., & Brooke, K. (1996). Contract design for profitability in macro-engineering projects. System Dynamics Review, 12(3), 235-246. https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1099-1727(199623)12:3<235::AID-SDR104>3.0.CO;2-Y

Savills. (2015). Ho Chi Minh City apartment for sale briefing. Savills Vietnam. Retrieved from http://www.savills.com.vn/research/residential-sales-research.aspx

State Bank of Vietnam [SBV]. (2016). Thông tin hoạt động ngân hàng trong tuần [Weekly information on banking operations]. SBV, Hanoi. Retrieved from http://www.sbv.gov.vn/webcenter/portal/en/home/sm/prerel/wiobo?_afrLoop=6069891216834626#%40%3F_afrLoop%3D6069891216834626%26centerWidth%3D80%2525%26leftWidth%3D20%2525%26rightWidth%3D0%2525%26showFooter%3Dfalse%26showHeader%3Dfalse%26_adf.ctrl-state%3D1cwvt9ugyz_289 (In Vietnamese)

Tsolas, I. E. (2011). Modelling profitability and effectiveness of Greek-listed construction firms: an integrated DEA and ratio analysis. Construction Management and Economics, 29, 795-807. https://doi.org/10.1080/01446193.2011.610330

Un-Habitat. (2014). Vietnam housing sector profile. Hanoi: Un-Habitat.

W&S. (2016). Report on housing in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City. W&S Vietnam. Retrieved from https://vinaresearch.jp/sample/voluntary_surveys/detail.php?ID=54

YCharts. (2016). China HGS real estate profit margin. Integrity Wealth Management. Retrieved from https://ycharts.com/companies/HGSH/profit _margin

Zhao, W., Ren, H., & Rotter, V. S. (2011). A system dynamics model for evaluating the alternative of type in construction and demolition waste recycling center – the case of Chongqing, China. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 55, 933-944. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2011.04.011