Explaining spatial variation in housing construction activity in Turkey
Abstract
In Turkey, there has been a strong policy narrative that has emphasized the importance of construction activity as a driver of economic growth. This has given shape to a central state-led policy regime that has sought to ensure that planners and other urban policy makers develop plans and strategies that support construction activity. Against this backdrop, and a recent history of uneven spatial development, this paper seeks to understand what this policy imperative might mean for housing construction activity in different provinces. It seeks to reflect on both the relationship between the state and the market, and the interaction between state policies, economic drivers and levels of construction activity. The evidence presented in the paper suggests that uneven spatial development might be explained in different ways in different provinces. Although, in many cases, patterns of construction activity are consistent with economic fundamentals, there are important exceptions in some regions where arguably activity levels are at odds with prior expectations.
Keyword : housing construction, spatial analysis, Turkey, economic growth, planning policy
How to Cite
Alkay, E., Watkins, C., & Keskin, B. (2018). Explaining spatial variation in housing construction activity in Turkey. International Journal of Strategic Property Management, 22(2), 119-130. https://doi.org/10.3846/ijspm.2018.443
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
References
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Renaud, B. (1997). The 1985 to 1994 global real estate cycle: an overview. Journal of Real Estate Literature, 5(1), 13-44. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1008623304689
Ruddock, L., & Lopes, J. (2006). The construction sector and economic development: the Bon curve. Construction Management and Economics, 24(7), 717-723. https://doi.org/10.1080/01446190500435218
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Tsolacos, S., McGough, T., & Keogh, G. (1998). Modelling use, investment and development in the British office market. Environment and Planning A, 30(8), 1409-1427. https://doi.org/10.1068/a301409
Turin, D. A. (1969). The construction industry: its economic significance and its role in development. London: University College, Environmental Research Group.
Turk, S. S., & Korthals Altes, W. K. (2010). Institutional capacities in the land development for housing on greenfield sites in Istanbul. Habitat International, 34(2), 183-195. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.habitatint.2009.09.002
Turkish Central Bank. (2015a). Hedonic housing price indexes, July 2015. Retrieved from https://evds2.tcmb.gov.tr/index.php?/evds/dashboard/310
Turkish Central Bank. (2015b). Electronic data center, July 2015. Retrieved from https://evds2.tcmb.gov.tr/
Turkish Central Bank. (2015c). Monetary policy and inflation developments, July 2015. Retrieved from http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/TCMB+EN/TCMB+EN/Main+Menu/STATISTICS/Chart+Gallery/
Turkish Statistical Institute. (2015a). Gross Domestic Product at current prices by kind of economic activity, July 2015. Retrieved from http://www.turkstat.gov.tr/PreTablo.do?alt_id=1108
Turkish Statistical Institute. (2015b). Construction labor input indices, July 2015. Retrieved from http://www.turkstat.gov.tr/PreTablo.do?alt_id=1023
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Turkun, A. (2011). Urban regeneration and hegemonic power relationships. International Planning Studies, 16(1), 61-72. https://doi.org/10.1080/13563475.2011.552473
White, M., & Allmendinger, P. (2003). Land-use planning and housing market: a comparative review of the UK and the USA. Urban Studies, 40, 953-972. https://doi.org/10.1080/0042098032000074263
Wong, C., & Watkins, C. (2009). Conceptualising spatial planning outcomes: towards and integrative measurement framework. Town Planning Review, 80(4–5), 481-516. https://doi.org/10.3828/tpr.2009.8
Adams, D., & Watkins, C. (2014). The value of planning. London: Royal Town Planning Institute.
Barras, R. (1984). The office development cycle in London. Land Development Studies, 1, 35-50. https://doi.org/10.1080/02640828408723866
Barras, R. (2009). Building cycles: growth and instability. Oxford: Wiley-Blackwell. https://doi.org/10.1002/9781444310009
Begg, I. (Ed.). (2002). Urban competitiveness: policies for dynamic cities. Bristol: The Policy Press.
Bon, R. (1992). The future of international construction. Habitat International, 16, 119-128. https://doi.org/10.1016/0197-3975(92)90068-A
Bramley, G. (1998). Measuring planning: indicators of planning restraint and its impact on housebuilding and house price. Environment and Planning A, 25(7), 1021-1051. https://doi.org/10.1068/a251021
Bramley, G. (2003). Planning regulation and housing supply in a market system. Housing Economics and Public Policy. United Kingdom: Blackwell.
Bramley, G. (2013). Housing market models and planning. Town Planning Review, 84(1), 9-35. https://doi.org/10.3828/tpr.2013.2
Bramley, G., & Watkins, C. (1995). Circular projections: house-hold growth, housing development and the household projections. Council for the Protection of Rural England, London.
Buckley, K. A. H. (1952). Urban building and real estate fluctuations in Canada. Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science, 18(1), 41-62. https://doi.org/10.2307/138533
Celik, O. (2013). Changing forms and strategies of state intervention in the housing of the poor in Istanbul. Unpublished PhD Thesis, University of Sheffield.
Coskun, Y. (2011). The global financial crisis and the Turkish housing market. Housing Finance International, 25(3), 6-14.
Dawkins, C. J., & Nelson, A. C. (2002). Urban containment policies and housing prices: an international comparison with implications for future research. Land Use Policy, 19, 1-12. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0264-8377(01)00038-2
DiPasquale, D., & Wheaton, W. C. (1996). Urban economics and real estate markets. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall.
Eraydin, A., & Tasan-Kok, T. (2014). State response to contemporary urban movements in Turkey: a critical overview of state entrepreneurialism and authoritarian interventions. Antipode, 46(1), 110-129. https://doi.org/10.1111/anti.12042
Fainstein, S. S. (2001). The city builders: property development in New York and London, 1980–2000. University Press of Kansas.
Fisher, J. D. (1992). Integrating research on markets for space and capital. Real Estate Economics, 20, 161-180. https://doi.org/10.1111/1540-6229.00578
Grenadier, S. R. (1995). The persistence of real estate cycles. Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 10, 95-119. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01096984
Henneberry, J., McGough, T., & Mouzakis, F. (2005a). Estimating the impact of planning on commercial property markets. In D. Adams, C. Watkins, M. White (Eds.), Planning, Public Policy and Property Markets (pp. 105-126). Oxford: Blackwell. https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470757789.ch6
Henneberry, J., McGough, T., & Mouzakis, F. (2005b). The impact of planning on local business rents. Urban Studies, 42, 471-502. https://doi.org/10.1080/00420980500035261
Henneberry, J., McGough, T., Rowley, S., & Smith, R. (2003). The economic consequences of planning for business: planning and business rents. Final Report to ODPM, Department of Town and Regional Planning, University of Sheffield, Sheffield.
Jackson, C. (2006). Retail planning policy change and institutional investment. Regional Studies, 40, 555-561. https://doi.org/10.1080/00343400600757734
Jackson, C., & Watkins, C. (2005). Planning policy and retail property markets: measuring the dimensions of planning intervention. Urban Studies, 42, 1453-1469. https://doi.org/10.1080/00420980500150896
Jackson, C., & Watkins, C. (2011). Planning policy and retail property investment. Urban Studies, 48(11), 2321-2338. https://doi.org/10.1177/0042098010385157
Jackson, C., & Watkins, C. (2007). Supply-side policies and retail property market performance. Environment and Planning A, 39(5), 1134-1146. https://doi.org/10.1068/a38250
Keogh, G. (1994). Use and investment markets in British real estate. Journal of Property Valuation and Investment, 12(4), 58-72. https://doi.org/10.1108/14635789410069980
Key, T., Zarkesh, F., MacGregor, B. D., & Nanthakumaran, N. (1994). Understanding the property cycle: economic cycles and property cycles. London: Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors.
Nanthakumaran, N., Watkins, C., & Orr, A. (2000). Understanding property market dynamics: insights from modelling the supply-side adjustment mechanism. Environment and Planning A, 32(4), 655-672. https://doi.org/10.1068/a31176
Renaud, B. (1997). The 1985 to 1994 global real estate cycle: an overview. Journal of Real Estate Literature, 5(1), 13-44. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1008623304689
Ruddock, L., & Lopes, J. (2006). The construction sector and economic development: the Bon curve. Construction Management and Economics, 24(7), 717-723. https://doi.org/10.1080/01446190500435218
Strassmann, P. (1970). The construction sector in economic development. Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 17(3), 390-410. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9485.1970.tb00715.x
Sun, Y., Mitra, P., & Simone, A. (2013). The driving forces behind boom and boost in Europe. IMF Working Paper (WP/13/181), International Monetary Fund.
The Banks Association of Turkey. (2015). Consumer loans and housing loans quarterly. Retrieved from https://www.tbb.org.tr/en/banks-and-banking-sector-information/data-query-system/21
Tsolacos, S., McGough, T., & Keogh, G. (1998). Modelling use, investment and development in the British office market. Environment and Planning A, 30(8), 1409-1427. https://doi.org/10.1068/a301409
Turin, D. A. (1969). The construction industry: its economic significance and its role in development. London: University College, Environmental Research Group.
Turk, S. S., & Korthals Altes, W. K. (2010). Institutional capacities in the land development for housing on greenfield sites in Istanbul. Habitat International, 34(2), 183-195. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.habitatint.2009.09.002
Turkish Central Bank. (2015a). Hedonic housing price indexes, July 2015. Retrieved from https://evds2.tcmb.gov.tr/index.php?/evds/dashboard/310
Turkish Central Bank. (2015b). Electronic data center, July 2015. Retrieved from https://evds2.tcmb.gov.tr/
Turkish Central Bank. (2015c). Monetary policy and inflation developments, July 2015. Retrieved from http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/TCMB+EN/TCMB+EN/Main+Menu/STATISTICS/Chart+Gallery/
Turkish Statistical Institute. (2015a). Gross Domestic Product at current prices by kind of economic activity, July 2015. Retrieved from http://www.turkstat.gov.tr/PreTablo.do?alt_id=1108
Turkish Statistical Institute. (2015b). Construction labor input indices, July 2015. Retrieved from http://www.turkstat.gov.tr/PreTablo.do?alt_id=1023
Turkish Statistical Institute. (2015c). Regional Gross Values Added at current prices, July 2015. Retrieved from https://biruni.tuik.gov.tr/medas/?kn=116&locale=en
Turkun, A. (2011). Urban regeneration and hegemonic power relationships. International Planning Studies, 16(1), 61-72. https://doi.org/10.1080/13563475.2011.552473
White, M., & Allmendinger, P. (2003). Land-use planning and housing market: a comparative review of the UK and the USA. Urban Studies, 40, 953-972. https://doi.org/10.1080/0042098032000074263
Wong, C., & Watkins, C. (2009). Conceptualising spatial planning outcomes: towards and integrative measurement framework. Town Planning Review, 80(4–5), 481-516. https://doi.org/10.3828/tpr.2009.8