A study on house price index performance: Mix adjustment and hierarchical linear growth repeat-sales models
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3846/ijspm.2025.23638Abstract
In this study, we examined the differences between three house price indexes constructed using hedonic price, mix adjustment, and hierarchical linear growth repeat-sales modeling. The data consisted of housing sales across 13 administrative districts in Kaohsiung City from the third quarter of 2013 to 2022. The predictions were compared using the mean standard error, mean absolute percentage error, mean absolute error, and root-mean-square error. The results revealed that the hedonic price index performed the best; its prediction scores, as reflected by the four aforementioned metrics were 0.072, 1.176, 0.181, and 0.181, respectively. The index with the second best performance was the mix adjustment model, with scores of 0.154, 1.905, 0.293, and 0.293. The worst-performing index was the repeat-sales model, with scores of 0.309, 2.804, 0.439, and 0.439. After comparing the annual prediction errors of the three models, it became apparent that the hedonic price index had the best performance, followed by the mix adjustment index, and then the hierarchical linear growth repeat-sales index.
Keywords:
house price index, hedonic price model, mix adjustment model, hierarchical linear growth repeat-sales model, k-meansHow to Cite
Share
License
Copyright (c) 2025 The Author(s). Published by Vilnius Gediminas Technical University.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
References
Anthony, O. A. (2018). Construction and application of property price indices. Routledge.
Bailey, M. J., Muth, R. F., & Nourse, H. O. (1963). A regression method for real estate price index construction. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 58(304), 933–942. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1963.10480679
Cannaday, R. E., Munneke, H. J., & Yang, T. T. (2005). A multivariate repeat-sales model for estimating house price indices. Journal of Urban Economics, 57(2), 320–342. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2004.12.001
Case, K. E., & Shiller, R. J. (1987). Prices of single-family homes since 1970: New indexes for four cities. New England Economic Review, 9, 45–56. https://doi.org/10.3386/w2393
Case, K. E., & Shiller, R. J. (1989). The efficiency of the market for single-family homes. American Economic Review, 79(1), 125–137.
Clapp, J. M., & Giaccotto, C. (1992). Estimating price indices for residential property: A comparison of repeat sales and assessed value methods. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 87(418), 300–306. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1992.10475209
Costello, G., & Watkins, C. (2002). Towards a system of local house price indices. Housing Studies, 17(6), 857–873. https://doi.org/10.1080/02673030216001
de Haan, J., & Diewert, W. E. (Eds.) (2011). Handbook on residential property price indexes. Eurostat.
Francke, M. K., & Van de Minne, A. (2017). The hierarchical repeat sales model for granular commercial real estate and residential price indices. The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 55, 511–532. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11146-017-9632-1
Hill, R. J., & Trojanek, R. (2022). An evaluation of competing methods for constructing property price indexes: The case of Warsaw. Land Use Policy, 120, Article 106226. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2022.106226
Ho, W. K., Tang, B. S., & Wong, S. W. (2021). Predicting property prices with machine learning algorithms. Journal of Property Research, 38(1), 48–70. https://doi.org/10.1080/09599916.2020.1832558
Kennedy, P. (2008). A guide to econometrics. John Wiley & Sons.
Kim, D. H., & Irakoze, A. (2022). Identifying market segment for the assessment of a price premium for green certified housing: A cluster analysis approach. Sustainability, 15(1), Article 507. https://doi.org/10.3390/su15010507
Kwon, S., Kim, S., Tak, O., & Jeong, H. (2017). A study on the clustering method of row and multiplex housing in Seoul using K-means clustering algorithm and hedonic model. Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems, 23(3), 95–118.
Lee, C. C., Huang, L. Y., & You, S. M. (2013). The changes and trends in urban land prices: An application of hierarchical growth modelling. Asian Economic and Financial Review, 3(5), Article 579.
Lee, C. C., Wang, Y. C., Liang, C. M., & Yu, Z. (2023). Price changes of repeat-sales houses in Kaohsiung city: Analyses based on hierarchical linear growth models. International Journal of Strategic Property Management, 27(5), 290–303. https://doi.org/10.3846/ijspm.2023.19935
Leishman, C., & Watkins, C. (2002). Estimating local repeat sales house price indices for British cities. Journal of Property Investment and Finance, 20(1), 36–58. https://doi.org/10.1108/14635780210416255
Miller, R., & Maguire, P. (2020). A rapidly updating stratified mix-adjusted median property price index model. In 2020 IEEE Symposium Series on Computational Intelligence (pp. 9–15), Canberra, ACT, Australia. IEEE. https://doi.org/10.1109/SSCI47803.2020.9308235
Mundfrom, D., Smith, M. D., & Kay, L. (2018). The effect of multicollinearity on prediction in regression models. General Linear Model Journal, 44(1), 24–28. https://doi.org/10.31523/glmj.044001.003
Nazemi, B., & Rafiean, M. (2022). Modelling the affecting factors of housing price using GMDH-type artificial neural networks in Isfahan city of Iran. International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, 15(1), 4–18. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJHMA-08-2020-0095
Prasad, N., & Richards, A. (2008). Improving median housing price indexes through stratification. Journal of Real Estate Research, 30(1), 45–72. https://doi.org/10.1080/10835547.2008.12091213
Rahman, S. N. A., Maimun, N. H. A., Razali, M. N. M., & Ismail, S. (2019). The artificial neural network model (ANN) for Malaysian housing market analysis. Planning Malaysia, 17(1), 1–9. https://doi.org/10.21837/pmjournal.v17.i9.581
Studenmund, A. H. (2014). Using econometrics: A practical guide. Pearson Education Limited.
Tan, R., He, Q., Zhou, K., Song, Y., & Xu, H. (2019). Administrative hierarchy, housing market inequality, and multilevel determinants: A cross-level analysis of housing prices in China. Journal of Housing and the Built Environment, 34, 845–868. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10901-019-09690-y
Xu, Y., Zhang, Q., Zheng, S., & Zhu, G. (2018). House age, price and rent: Implications from land-structure decomposition. The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 56, 303–324. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11146-016-9596-6
Zhang, X., Zheng, Y., Sun, L., & Dai, Q. (2019). Urban structure, subway system and housing price: Evidence from Beijing and Hangzhou, China. Sustainability, 11(3), Article 669. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11030669
View article in other formats
Published
Issue
Section
Copyright
Copyright (c) 2025 The Author(s). Published by Vilnius Gediminas Technical University.
License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.