Share:


The wakeup call of COVID-19: perceptions of crisis impacts in the real estate market

Abstract

Participants in the real estate market are exposed to a variety of endogenous and exogenous crises. Because the real estate market environment is closely interconnected with the broader society and its diverse forces, the direct and indirect impacts of crises are experienced through changes in real estate market dynamics. In the future, the market environment is expected to be even more challenging, full of complexity, uncertainties, and ambiguities, which will require developing the skills, first, to learn from crises already experienced and then to foresee, prevent, or adapt to ones yet unseen. This article aims to deepen the understanding of how crisis impacts were perceived in the real estate market during the COVID-19 pandemic. The research applies a qualitative approach by interviewing 19 real estate market professionals in Finland to identify the factors influencing market dynamics, such as market sentiments, preferences, and procedures. The results will help market participants understand the diversity of crisis impacts, their interconnections, and how they are perceived. The findings contribute to the real estate literature by offering a qualitative perspective that supports individuals and organizations in developing risk and crisis management skills and contributes to building a more resilient real estate market to support communities.

Keyword : COVID-19, pandemic, risk management, crisis management, shocks, resilience, forecasting, market preferences

How to Cite
Toivonen, S., Sinisalo, H., & Uusitalo, E. (2023). The wakeup call of COVID-19: perceptions of crisis impacts in the real estate market. International Journal of Strategic Property Management, 27(1), 64–75. https://doi.org/10.3846/ijspm.2023.18842
Published in Issue
Apr 11, 2023
Abstract Views
676
PDF Downloads
586
Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

References

9/11 and insurance: the eight year anniversary. (2009, September 11). Insurance Journal. https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2009/09/11/103694.htm

Allen, C. R., & Holling, C. S. (2010). Novelty, adaptive capacity, and resilience. Ecology and Society, 15(3), 24. https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-03720-150324

Bennett, N., & Lemoine, G. J. (2014). What a difference a word makes: understanding threats to performance in a VUCA world. Business Horizons, 57(3), 311–317. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bushor.2014.01.001

Berg, H. P. (2010). Risk management: procedures, methods and experiences. Reliability: Theory & Applications, 2(17), 79–95.

Brounen, D., & Jeroen, D. (2010). The impact of terrorist attacks on international stock market. European Financial Management, 16(4), 585–598. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-036X.2009.00502.x

Brueggeman, W., & Fisher, J. (2011). Real estate finance and investments (14th ed.). McGraw-Hill.

Çamlibel, M. E., Sümer, L., & Hepşen, A. (2021). Risk-return performances of real estate investment funds in Turkey including the COVID-19 period. International Journal of Strategic Property Management, 25(4), 267–277. https://doi.org/10.3846/ijspm.2021.14957

Castaño-Rosa, R., Pelsmakers, S., Järventausta, H., Poutanen, J., Tähtinen, L., Rashidfarokhi, A., & Toivonen, S. (2022). Resilience in the built environment: key characteristics for solutions to multiple crises. Sustainable Cities and Society, 87, 104259. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2022.104259

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. (2016). SARS: 10 years after. https://www.cdc.gov/dotw/sars/index.html

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. (2017). SARS: basics fact sheet. https://www.cdc.gov/sars/about/fs-sars.html

Chernick, H. (2005). Resilient city: the economic impact of 9/11. Russell Sage Foundation.

Claessens, S., Kose, M. A., & Terrones, M. E. (2010). The global financial crisis: how similar? How different? How costly? Journal of Asian Economics, 21(3), 247–264. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asieco.2010.02.002

Committee for the Future. (2020). Koronapandemian hyvät ja huonot seuraukset lyhyellä ja pitkällä aikavälillä. In Eduskunnan Tulevaisuusvaliokunnan julkaisu (Vol. 1/2020), Tulevaisuusvaliokunta.

Cooke, H., Fiorentino, S., Harris, R., Livingstone, N., & McAllister, P. (2022). Corporate occupiers’ attitude to flex space in the post-Covid environment. Journal of Property Investment & Finance, 40(5), 493–507. https://doi.org/10.1108/JPIF-02-2022-0011

Crouhy, M., Galai, D., & Mark, R. (2006). The essentials of risk management: the definitive guide for the non-risk professional. McGraw Hill Professional.

De Toro, P., Nocca, F., & Buglione, F. (2021). Real estate market responses to the COVID-19 crisis: which prospects for the metropolitan area of Naples (Italy)? Urban Science, 5(1), 23. https://doi.org/10.3390/urbansci5010023

Duca, J. V., Muellbauer, J., & Murphy, A. (2010). Housing markets and the financial crisis of 2007–2009: lessons for the future. Journal of Financial Stability, 6(4), 203–217. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfs.2010.05.002

Duca, J. V., Hoesli, M., & Montezuma, J. (2021). The resilience and realignment of house prices in the era of Covid-19. Journal of European Real Estate Research, 14(3), 421–431. https://doi.org/10.1108/JERER-11-2020-0055

Edey, M. (2009). The global financial crisis and its effects. Economic Papers, 28(3), 186–195. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1759-3441.2009.00032.x

Farfel, M., DiGrande, L., Brackbill, R., Prann, A., Cone, J., Friedman, S., Walker, D. J., Pezeshki, G., Thomas, P., Galea, S., Williamson, D., Frieden, T. R., & Thorpe, L. (2008). An overview of 9/11 experiences and respiratory and mental health conditions among World Trade Center Health Registry enrollees. Journal of Urban Health, 85(6), 880–909. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11524-008-9317-4

FRED. (2021). Federal funds effective rate. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS

Fuerst, F. (2005). Exogenous shocks and real estate rental markets: an event study of the 9/11 attacks and their impact on the New York office market. SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.800006

Geijer, H. (2019). Kriisit, katastrofit ja maailmanloput. Art House.

Graaskamp, J. (1981). Fundamentals of real estate development. Urban Land Institute.

Guo, X., & Cheng, L. (2019). Challenges, core competence development and future prospects of appraisers in the VUCA era. In Proceedings of the 2019 4th International Conference on Modern Management, Education Technology and Social Science (pp. 555–561). Atlantis Press. https://doi.org/10.2991/mmetss-19.2019.112

Hasu, E. (2017). Asumisen valinnat ja päätöksenteko paljastettuina [Doctoral dissertation]. Aalto University.

Heinonen, S., Karjalainen, J., Ruotsalainen, J., & Steinmüller, K. (2017). Surprise as the new normal – implications for energy security. European Journal of Futures Research, 5(12), 1–13. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40309-017-0117-5

Hiltunen, E. (2010). Weak signals in organizational futures learning [Dissertation]. Aalto University School of Economics.

Hodson, D., & Quaglia, L. (2009). European perspectives on the global financial crisis: introduction. Journal of Common Market Studies, 47(5), 939–953. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-5965.2009.02029.x

Hoesli, M., & Malle, R. (2021). Commercial real estate prices and Covid-19. Journal of European Real Estate Research, 15(2), 295–306. https://doi.org/10.1108/JERER-04-2021-0024

Hopkin, P. (2018). Fundamentals of risk management: understanding, evaluating and implementing effective risk management. Kogan Page Publishers.

Hwang, H. S., & Stewart, C. (2006). Lessons from dot-com boom and bust. In D. B. A. Mehdi Khosrow-Pour (Ed.), Encyclopedia of e-commerce, e-government, and mobile commerce (pp. 698–702). IGI Global. https://doi.org/10.4018/978-1-59140-799-7.ch112

Iloniemi, J., & Limnéll, J. (2018). Uhkakuvat. Docendo.

Jackson, O. A. (2008). The impact of the 9/11 terrorist attacks on the US economy. Journal of 9/11 Studies, 20(1), 1–27.

Jokivuolle, E. (2010). Finanssikriisi ja riskien hallintatutkimuksen näkökulma. Kansantaloudellinen aikakauskirja, 1, 15–23.

Jones Lang LaSalle. (2022). Resilience in the built environment: how can organizations prepare for future disruption and thrive? In Part 1: Decoding resilience in the built environment (pp. 1–13). https://www.jll.co.uk/en/trends-and-insights/research/resilience-in-the-built-environment

Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: an analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263–292. https://doi.org/10.2307/1914185

Kaklauskas, A., Zavadskas, E. K., Lepkova, N., Raslanas, S., Dauksys, K., Vetloviene, I., & Ubarte, I. (2021). Sustainable construction investment, real estate development, and COVID-19: a review of literature in the field. Sustainability, 13, 7420. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13137420

Kaleva, H., Oikarinen, E., & Soutamo, M. (2017). Kiinteistösijoittaminen. KTI Kiinteistötieto Oy.

Kallunki, J., Martikainen, M., & Niemelä, J. (2008). Ammattimainen sijoittaminen. Talentum.

Karjalainen, J., Heinonen, S., & Taylor, A. (2022). Mysterious faces of hybridisation: an anticipatory approach for crisis literacy. European Journal of Futures Research, 10, 21. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40309-022-00207-5

Karp, P. (2018). The financial crisis 10 years later: lessons learned. Harvard Law School Forum on Corporate Governance. https://corpgov.law.harvard.edu/2018/10/05/the-financial-crisis-10-years-later-lessons-learned/

Keogh-Brown, M. R., & Smith, R. D. (2008). The economic impact of SARS: how does the reality match the predictions? Health Policy, 88(1), 110–120. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.healthpol.2008.03.003

Kuusi, O., & Kamppinen, M. (2002). Tulevaisuuden tekeminen. In M. Kamppinen, O. Kuusi, & S. Söderlund (Eds.), Tulevaisuuden tutkimus, perusteet ja sovellukset (pp. 117–170). Suomalaisen kirjallisuuden seura, Helsinki.

Laeven, M. L., Igan, M. D., Claessens, M. S., & Dell’Ariccia, M. G. (2010). Lessons and policy implications from the global financial crisis. International Monetary Fund. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1562412

Ling, D., Wang, C., & Zhou, T. (2020). A first look at the impact of COVID-19 on commercial real estate prices: asset-level evidence. Review of Asset Pricing Studies, 10(4), 669–704. https://doi.org/10.1093/rapstu/raaa014

Liu, C.-H., & Liu, B. (2022). Exploring hotel appraisal determinants amid sales trend during COVID-19 pandemic using a DANP-mV model. International Journal of Strategic Property Management, 26(4), 258–271. https://doi.org/10.3846/ijspm.2022.17168

Liu, S., & Su, Y. (2021). The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the demand for density: evidence from the U.S. housing market. Economic Letters, 207, 110010. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2021.110010

Lund, S., Mehta, A., Manyika, J., & Goldshtein, D. (2018). A decade after the global financial crisis: what has (and hasn’t) changed? McKinsey Global Institute. https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/financial-services/our-insights/a-decade-after-the-global-financial-crisis-what-has-and-hasnt-changed#part3

Marria, V. (2018). 10 years since the 2008 financial crisis: how have the rules changed? Forbes. https://www.forbes.com/sites/vishalmarria/2018/10/15/10-years-since-the-2008-financial-crisis-how-have-the-rules-changed/

Michel‐Kerjan, E., Raschky, P., & Kunreuther, H. (2015). Corporate demand for insurance: new evidence from the US terrorism and property markets. Journal of Risk and Insurance, 82(3), 505–530. https://doi.org/10.1111/jori.12031

Milcheva, S. (2021). Volatility and the cross-section of real estate equity returns during Covid-19. Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 65, 293–320. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11146-021-09840-6

Mishkin, F. (2011). Over the cliff: from the subprime to the global financial crisis. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 25(1), 49–70. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.25.1.49

Mun, K.-C. (2005). Contagion and impulse response of international stock markets around the 9-11 terrorist attacks. Global Finance Journal, 16(1), 48–68. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfj.2005.05.002

Nanda, A., Xu, Y., & Zhang, F. (2021). How would the COVID-19 pandemic reshape retail real estate and high streets through acceleration of e-commerce and digitalization? Journal of Urban Management, 10(2), 110–124. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jum.2021.04.001

National September 11 Memorial & Museum. (2021). What happened on the morning of September 11, 2001? https://911memorial.org/

Naz, F., Kumar, A., Upadhyay, A., Chokshi H., Trinkunas, V., & Magda, R. (2022). Property management enabled by artificial intelligence post COVID-19: an exploratory review and future propositions. International Journal of Strategic Property Management, 26(2), 156–171. https://doi.org/10.3846/ijspm.2022.16923

Pelsmakers, S., Poutanen, J., Saarimaa, S., Maununaho, K., & Toivonen, S. (2021). Kriisi ei tule yksin. Arkkilehti, 1/2021.

PwC. (2021). PwC’s global crisis survey. https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/issues/crisis-solutions/global-crisis-survey.html

Risk Management Solutions. (2002). Managing risk in the aftermath of the WTC catastrophe. https://forms2.rms.com/rs/729-DJX-565/images/terr_managing_risk_after_wtc.pdf

Rosenthal, S. S., Strange, W. C., & Urrego, J. A. (2022). JUE insight: are city centers losing their appeal? Commercial real estate, urban spatial structure, and COVID-19. Journal of Urban Economics, 127, 103381. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2021.103381

Siu, A., & Wong, Y. C. R. (2004). The economic impact of SARS: the case of Hong Kong. Asian Economic Papers, 3(1), 62–83. https://doi.org/10.1162/1535351041747996

Taleb, N. N. (2007). The black swan: the impact of the highly improbable (Vol. 2). Random House.

Taleb, N., Goldstein, D., & Spitznagel, M. (2009). The six mistakes executives make in risk management. Harvard Business Review, 87, 123.

Tanrivermis, H. (2020). Possible impacts of COVID-19 outbreak on real estate sector and possible changes to adopt: a situation analysis and general assessment on Turkish perspective. Journal of Urban Management, 9(3), 263–269. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jum.2020.08.005

Toivonen, S. (2011). The future commercial real estate market – The forces of change, influences and preferences in the Helsinki metropolitan area [Dissertation]. Aalto University.

Toivonen, S., & Viitanen, K. (2015). Forces of change shaping the future commercial real estate market in the Helsinki metropolitan area in Finland. Land Use Policy, 42, 471–478. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2014.09.004

Toivonen, S., & Viitanen, K. (2016). Environmental scanning and futures wheels as tools to analyze the possible future themes of the commercial real estate market. Land Use Policy, 52, 51–61. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2015.12.011

Toivonen, S. (2021). Advancing futures thinking in the real estate field. Journal of European Real Estate Research, 14(1), 150–166. https://doi.org/10.1108/JERER-01-2020-0003

Toivonen, S., Rashidfarokhi, A., & Kyrö, R. (2021). Empowering upcoming city developers with futures literacy. Futures, 129, 102734. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2021.102734

Walker, B., Holling, C. S., Carpenter, S. R., & Kinzig, A. (2004). Resilience, adaptability and transformability in social–ecological systems. Ecology and Society, 9(2), 5. https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-00650-090205

Watkins, C., & McMaster, R. (2011). The behavioural turn in housing economics: reflections on the theoretical and operational challenges. Housing, Theory and Society, 28(3), 281–287. https://doi.org/10.1080/14036096.2011.599177

Wilkinson, S., & Reed, R. (2008). Property development. Routledge.

Wong, G. (2008). Has SARS infected the property market? Evidence from Hong Kong. Journal of Urban Economics, 63(1), 74–95. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2006.12.007

World Health Organization. (2021). Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). https://www.who.int/health-topics/severe-acute-respiratory-syndrome#tab=tab_1

World Health Organization. (2022). WHO coronavirus (COVID-19) dashboard. https://covid19.who.int/

Worzala, E. (2021). COVID 19, real estate and uncertainty: examining this new “normal” through the quotes of Jim Graaskamp. Journal of Property Investment & Finance, 39(1), 31–37. https://doi.org/10.1108/JPIF-06-2020-0068

Worzala, E., & Wyman, D. (2022). Real estate insights the human factor: the “unknown unknowns” in the real estate development process. Journal of Property Investment & Finance, 40(3), 300–305. https://doi.org/10.1108/JPIF-11-2021-0099

Xie, L., & Milcheva, S. (2020). Proximity to COVID-19 cases and real estate stock returns. SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3641268