Predicting land use/land cover changes using CA-ANN model in the Gia Lam District, Hanoi City

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3846/gac.2026.22678

Abstract

Gia Lam is a district in the eastern part of Hanoi, Vietnam, undergoing rapid development and urbanization. Predicting land use/land cover changes is crucial for supporting policymakers in designing effective local development strategies. This study aims to forecast land use/land cover changes in Gia Lam District through 2028. Sentinel-2 optical satellite imagery serves as the primary data source, with the classification of five land use/land cover types at different times performed using the Random Forest (RF) algorithm, and forecast results generated using a Cellular Automata (CA) model combined with an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model. The results indicate a significant expansion of built-up areas, projected to cover 68.92% of the natural area by 2028. On the contrary, the area under annual vegetation is expected to decline to just 7.71%. These findings provide valuable insights for researchers and land use planners.

Keywords:

Gia Lam, Random Forest, Cellular Automata, Artificial Neural Network, land use/land cover, classification, Sentinel-2 satellite imagery

How to Cite

Dang, T. T., & Pham, A. T. (2026). Predicting land use/land cover changes using CA-ANN model in the Gia Lam District, Hanoi City. Geodesy and Cartography, 52(1), 42–53. https://doi.org/10.3846/gac.2026.22678

Share

Published in Issue
March 31, 2026
Abstract Views
14

References

Anh, D. (2022). Gia Lam is always the leading unit in the district block with rapid urbanization speed. https://thanglong.chinhphu.vn/gia-lam-luon-la-don-vi-dan-dau-khoi-huyen-co-toc-do-do-thi-hoa-nhanh-103220118163530724.htm

Assede, E. S., Orou, H., Biaou, S. S., Geldenhuys, C. J., Ahononga, F. C., & Chirwa, P. W. (2023). Understanding drivers of land use and land cover change in Africa: A review. Current Landscape Ecology Reports, 8(2), 62–72. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40823-023-00087-w

Astuty, Y. I., & Dimyati, M. (2024). Prediction of land use/land cover change in Indonesia using the open source land cover dataset: A review. Geodesy and Cartography, 50(2), 67–75. https://doi.org/10.3846/gac.2024.19285

Baig, M. F., Mustafa, M. R. U., Baig, I., Takaijudin, H. B., & Zeshan, M. T. (2022). Assessment of land use land cover changes and future predictions using CA-ANN simulation for selangor, Malaysia. Water, 14(3), Article 402. https://doi.org/10.3390/w14030402

Breiman, L. (2001). Random forests. Machine Learning, 45, 5–32. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1010933404324

Byrt, T., Bishop, J., & Carlin, J. B. (1993). Bias, prevalence and kappa. Journal of Clinical Epidemiology, 46(5), 423–429. https://doi.org/10.1016/0895-4356(93)90018-V

Cohen, J. (1960). A coefficient of agreement for nominal scales. Educational and Psychological Measurement, 20(1), 37–46. https://doi.org/10.1177/001316446002000104

Halmy, M. W. A., Gessler, P. E., Hicke, J. A., & Salem, B. B. (2015). Land use/land cover change detection and prediction in the north-western coastal desert of Egypt using Markov-CA. Applied Geography, 63, 101–112. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2015.06.015

Hoan, P. X., & Hoan, P. H. (2024). Research on the process of automatically detecting terrain changes and geographic objects based on cloud computing technology. Magazine of Geodesy – Catography, 10(03), 15–20.

Islam, K., Rahman, M. F., & Jashimuddin, M. (2018). Modeling land use change using cellular automata and artificial neural network: The case of Chunati Wildlife Sanctuary, Bangladesh. Ecological Indicators, 88, 439–453. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2018.01.047

Karimi, H., Jafarnezhad, J., Khaledi, J., & Ahmadi, P. (2018). Monitoring and prediction of land use/land cover changes using CA-Markov model: A case study of Ravansar County in Iran. Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 11, 1–9. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-018-3940-5

Karra, K., Kontgis, C., Statman-Weil, Z., Mazzariello, J. C., Mathis, M., & Brumby, S. P. (2021). Global land use / land cover with Sentinel 2 and deep learning [Paper presentation]. 2021 IEEE International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium IGARSS, Brussels, Belgium. https://doi.org/10.1109/IGARSS47720.2021.9553499

Khan, D., & Khan, N. (2025). Modelling urban future: Integrating CA-ANN model for comprehensive understanding of land use, land cover changes, and temperature dynamics in Lucknow City, India. Geology, Ecology, and Landscapes, 1–26. https://doi.org/10.1080/24749508.2025.2524207

Kouassi, C. J. A., Qian, C., Khan, D., Achille, L. S., Kebin, Z., Omifolaji, J. K., Ya, T., & Yang, X. (2024). Land use land cover change mapping from Sentinel 1B & 2A imagery using random forest algorithm in Côte d’Ivoire. Geodesy and Cartography, 50(1), 43–59. https://doi.org/10.3846/gac.2024.18724

Landis, J. R., & Koch, G. G. (1977). The measurement of observer agreement for categorical data. Biometrics, 33(1), 159–174. https://doi.org/10.2307/2529310

Li, J., Chen, H., Zhang, C., & Pan, T. (2019). Variations in ecosystem service value in response to land use/land cover changes in Central Asia from 1995–2035. PeerJ, 7, Article e7665. https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.7665

Liang, Y., Hashimoto, S., & Liu, L. (2021). Integrated assessment of land-use/land-cover dynamics on carbon storage services in the Loess Plateau of China from 1995 to 2050. Ecological Indicators, 120, Article 106939. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.106939

Lin, Y.-P., Chu, H.-J., Wu, C.-F., & Verburg, P. H. (2011). Predictive ability of logistic regression, auto-logistic regression and neural network models in empirical land-use change modeling–a case study. International Journal of Geographical Information Science, 25(1), 65–87. https://doi.org/10.1080/13658811003752332

Liping, C., Yujun, S., & Saeed, S. (2018). Monitoring and predicting land use and land cover changes using remote sensing and GIS techniques—A case study of a hilly area, Jiangle, China. PloS ONE, 13(7), Article e0200493. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0200493

Liu, Y., Wang, Y., & Zhang, J. (2012, September 14–16). New machine learning algorithm: Random forest [Paper presentation]. Information Computing and Applications: Third International Conference, ICICA 2012, Chengde, China. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-34041-3

Liu, Y., & Wu, H. (2017). Prediction of road traffic congestion based on random forest [Paper presentation]. 2017 10th International Symposium on Computational Intelligence and Design (ISCID), Hangzhou, China. https://doi.org/10.1109/ISCID.2017.216

Marshall, L., Biesmeijer, J. C., Rasmont, P., Vereecken, N. J., Dvorak, L., Fitzpatrick, U., Francis, F., Neumayer, J., Ødegaard, F., Paukkunen, J. P. T., Pawlikowski, T., Reemer, M., Roberts, S. P. M., Straka, J., Vray, S., & Dendoncker, N. (2018). The interplay of climate and land use change affects the distribution of EU bumblebees. Global Change Biology, 24(1), 101–116. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13867

Musleh, A. A., & Jaber, H. S. (2021). Comparative analysis of feature extraction and pixel-based classification of high-resolution satellite images using geospatial techniques. E3S Web of Conferences, 318, Article 04007. https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202131804007

Owojori, A., & Xie, H. (2005). Landsat image-based LULC changes of San Antonio, Texas using advanced atmospheric correction and object-oriented image analysis approaches [Paper presentation]. 5th International Symposium on Remote Sensing of Urban Areas, Tempe, AZ.

Pal, M. (2005). Random forest classifier for remote sensing classification. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 26(1), 217–222. https://doi.org/10.1080/01431160412331269698

Phuong, D. L., Thuy, H. T., & Hiep, D. N. (2024). Application of Artificial Intelligence to monitor changes in land use in the BacTu Liem District area, Hanoi, during the period 2019-2023. Magazine of Geodesy – Cartography, 10(01), 22–29. https://zenodo.org/records/13218549

Rahman, M. T. U., Tabassum, F., Rasheduzzaman, M., Saba, H., Sarkar, L., Ferdous, J., Uddin, S. Z., & Zahedul Islam, A. Z. M. (2017). Temporal dynamics of land use/land cover change and its prediction using CA-ANN model for southwestern coastal Bangladesh. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 189, Article 565. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-017-6272-0

Rumelhart, D. E., Hinton, G. E., & Williams, R. J. (1986). Learning representations by back-propagating errors. Nature, 323(6088), 533–536. https://doi.org/10.1038/323533a0

Sajan, B., Mishra, V. N., Kanga, S., Meraj, G., Singh, S. K., & Kumar, P. (2022). Cellular automata-based artificial neural network model for assessing past, present, and future land use/land cover dynamics. Agronomy, 12(11), Article 2772. https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy12112772

SUHET. (2015). Sentinel-2 user handbook (Vol. 2 rev.). European Space Agency Agence spatiable europeenne (ESA).

Swetanisha, S., Panda, A. R., & Behera, D. K. (2022). Land use/land cover classification using machine learning models. International Journal of Electrical Computer Engineering, 12(2), 2040–2046. https://doi.org/10.11591/ijece.v12i2.pp2040-2046

Thien, B. B., Alexsander, I. R., & Denis, K. O. (2025). Prediction of future land use and land cover changes using a coupled CA-ANN model in Hanoi capital, Vietnam [Paper presentation]. Problems of Coastal Area Management to Ensure Environmental Safety and Rational Environmental Management, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-90873-6_1

Von Neumann, J. (2017). The general and logical theory of automata. In Systems research for behavioral science (pp. 97–107). Routledge.

Von Neumann, J., & Burks, A. W. (1966). Theory of self-reproducing automata. University of Illinois Press.

White, R., & Engelen, G. (1993). Cellular automata and fractal urban form: A cellular modelling approach to the evolution of urban land-use patterns. Environment and Planning A: Economy and Space, 25(8), 1175–1199. https://doi.org/10.1068/a251175

Yang, Q., Li, X., & Shi, X. (2008). Cellular automata for simulating land use changes based on support vector machines. Geosciences Computers, 34(6), 592–602. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cageo.2007.08.003

View article in other formats

CrossMark check

CrossMark logo

Published

2026-03-31

Issue

Section

Articles

How to Cite

Dang, T. T., & Pham, A. T. (2026). Predicting land use/land cover changes using CA-ANN model in the Gia Lam District, Hanoi City. Geodesy and Cartography, 52(1), 42–53. https://doi.org/10.3846/gac.2026.22678

Share